Platforms and Real Options in Industrial Organization

We need a robust theory to analyse the dynamics of new industrial organizations that are being created by the explosion of information technology. This paper sets out a new theoretical perspective and suggests a new empirical framework towards formulating such a theory. The new conceptual tools of analysis presented here include the "platform" as a key element of new market structures, "real options" analysis to deal with genuine uncertainty, and an understanding of a new form of competition that takes place among different platforms.
JEL Classification Numbers: L10, L12, L15, D81.     

CBD hypothesis and economies of agglomeration

Economies of agglomeration as a rationale for the formation of central business district of a city is examined. In a simultaneous location problem of firms and workers on a line segment, a locational interaction effect among firms is introduced. As an optimal solution to the cost minimization problem, a locational pattern is obtained in which the outermost zone is occupied by workers, the middle zone by firms, and the innermost zone by both workers and firms.     

Incomplete insurance and absolute risk aversion

Suppose that a subset of states of nature are not verifiable individually. Given an optimal feasible insurance scheme, the expected utility across a group of unverifiable states is greater (less) than that of a verifiable state, if the degree of absolute risk aversion is decreasing (increasing).     

Dynamic and long-term linkages among agricultural and non-agricultural growth,inequality and poverty in developing countries

Drawing upon cross-country panel data for developing countries, the present study examines the role of agricultural growth in reducing inequality and poverty by modelling the dynamic linkage between agricultural and non-agricultural sectors. For this purpose, we have compared the roles of agricultural and non-agricultural growth and have found that agricultural growth is more important in reducing poverty, while the negative effect of agricultural growth on inequality is found in a few cases where specific definitions of inequality are adopted. Our analysis generally reinforces the case for revival of agriculture in the post-2015 discourse, contrary to much-emphasised roles of rural–urban migration and urbanisation as main drivers of growth and elimination of extreme poverty.     

Multi-port vs. Hub-and-Spoke port calls by containerships

This paper addresses the design of container liner shipping networks taking into consideration container management issues including empty container repositioning. We examine two typical service networks with different ship sizes: multi-port calling by conventional ship size and hub-and-spoke by mega-ship. The entire solution process is performed in two phases: the service network design and container distribution. A wide variety of numerical experiments are conducted for the Asia–Europe and Asia–North America trade lanes. In most scenarios the multi-port calling is superior in terms of total cost, while the hub-and-spoke is more advantageous in the European trade for a costly shipping company.     

The effect of uncertainty on UK investment authorisation: Homogenous vs. heterogeneous estimators

This paper compares pooled and non-pooled models of UK capital investment using the Confederation of British Industrys (CBI) Industrial Trends Survey, focusing on the impact of uncertainty. The uncertainty measure is based on the cross sectional dispersion of optimism about the future business conditions in the industry in which the firm operates. The panel data estimation shows that uncertainty has quantitatively important negative effects on investment. However, if we look at the estimation results at the industry level, we find a great diversity in both estimated elasticities and t-statistics, providing valuable information not available from the pooled model. Finally, we compare the forecast performances of the above models; this analysis confirms that pooled estimators are generally better than non-pooled estimators in terms of out-of-sample forecast performance, but the difference between the two is not very large.     

Commodity Spread Option with Cointegration

We derive the valuation formula of a European call option on the spread of two cointegrated commodity futures prices, based on the Gibson–Schwartz with cointegration (GSC) model. We also analyze the American commodity spread option including the early exercise premium representation and an analytical approximation valuation formulae with cointegration. In the numerical analysis, we compare the spread option values calculated by the GSC model and the Gibson–Schwartz (GS) model that ignores cointegration. Consistent with the intuition that the cointegration prevents the prices from diverging, the GSC model prices the commodity spread option lower than the GS model which have longer maturity of more than 6 years. In other words, the GS model may overprice the commodity spread options for those with longer maturity without taking account of cointegration. Thus, incorporating cointegration is important for valuation and hedging of long-term commodity spread options such as large scale oil refining plant developments.     

Rural Public Works and Poverty Alleviation--the case of the employment guarantee scheme in Maharashtra

This paper focuses on the poverty alleviating potential of the Employment Guarantee Scheme (EGS) in (the Indian state of) Maharashtra. A point of departure is the shift of emphasis from the static to the dynamic effects of the EGS targeting, measured in terms of individuals moving into and out of poverty, over the period 1979-84. An assessment is made of whether the EGS prevents the vulnerable from falling into poverty or enables the poor to move out of poverty, by distinguishing between the protective and promotional roles of the scheme. Simulations involving a wide range of poverty thresholds and different assumptions about the distribution of EGS earnings reveal that the poverty alleviating potential is limited in most cases. If, however, a larger EGS outlay is combined with more accurate targeting, the potential is substantially greater. Larger outlays are feasible if other rural public works are merged under the EGS. If this is combined with a reallocation in favour of backward areas, the targeting may improve substantially.     

A practitioner’s guide to Bayesian estimation of discrete choice dynamic programming models

This paper provides a step-by-step guide to estimating infinite horizon discrete choice dynamic programming (DDP) models using a new Bayesian estimation algorithm (Imai et al., Econometrica 77:1865?C1899, 2009a) (IJC). In the conventional nested fixed point algorithm, most of the information obtained in the past iterations remains unused in the current iteration. In contrast, the IJC algorithm extensively uses the computational results obtained from the past iterations to help solve the DDP model at the current iterated parameter values. Consequently, it has the potential to significantly alleviate the computational burden of estimating DDP models. To illustrate this new estimation method, we use a simple dynamic store choice model where stores offer ??frequent-buyer?? type rewards programs. Our Monte Carlo results demonstrate that the IJC method is able to recover the true parameter values of this model quite precisely. We also show that the IJC method could reduce the estimation time significantly when estimating DDP models with unobserved heterogeneity, especially when the discount factor is close to 1.