Market discipline and deposit insurance reform in Japan

On April 1, 2002, the Japanese government lifted a blanket guarantee of all deposits and began limiting the coverage of time deposits. This paper uses this deposit insurance reform as a natural experiment to investigate the relationship between deposit insurance coverage and market discipline. I find that the reform raised the sensitivity of interest rates on deposits, and that of deposit quantity to default risk. In addition, the interest rate differentials between partially insured large time deposits and fully insured ordinary deposits increased for risky banks. These results suggest that the deposit insurance reform enhanced market discipline in Japan. I also find, however, that too-big-to-fail (TBTF) policy became a more important determinant of interest rates and deposit allocation after the reform, thereby partially offsetting the positive effects of the deposit insurance reform on overall market discipline.     

A quantile-based test of protection for sale model

This paper proposes a new test of the Protection for Sale (PFS) model by Grossman and Helpman (1994). Unlike existing methods in the literature, our approach does not require any data on political organization. We use quantile and IV quantile regressions in our tests, using the data from Gawande and Bandyopadhyay (2000). Surprisingly, the results do not provide any evidence favoring the PFS model. We also explain why previous work may have found support for it.     

Assessing the gains from deregulation in Japan's international telecommunications industry

The Japanese government terminated the monopoly of international telecommunications service by Kokusai Denshin Denwa (KDD) as part of the regulatory reform in telecommunications in 1985. Two new carriers entered the market in 1989. In defending its market share, KDD intensified cost reduction efforts and accepted lower profitability in order to carry out a series of sharp rate reductions. I have assessed the size of the net welfare gain associated with the deregulation. Deregulation brought about a 22.2% fall in KDD's unit cost for the eight-year period ending in 1992. Because this efficiency gain was fully passed along to telephone users in the form of lower rates, the corresponding increment of consumer surplus was of significant size, equivalent to 25.6% of total international telephone call revenues in 1992. (JEL L95, O53)     

Transmission of liquidity shock to bank credit: Evidence from the deposit insurance reform in Japan

Finding the causal effects of liquidity shocks on credit supply is complicated by the endogenous relation between loan demand and liquidity position of banks. This paper attempts to overcome this problem by exploiting, as a natural experiment, the exogenous deposit outflow prompted by the removal of a blanket deposit guarantee on time deposits in Japan. We find that during the period of transition from a blanket guarantee to a partial guarantee, weak banks suffered from a large outflow of partially insured time deposits. More importantly, we find that those weak banks were not able to raise a sufficient amount of other types of deposits to make up for the loss of time deposits, which, consequently, forced them to cut back on loan supply. These results are consistent with the theory that the imperfect substitutability of insured deposits and uninsured deposits affects the tightness of banks’ financing constraints and ultimately the supply of bank loans.     

Are farmers ‘efficient but poor’? The impact of crop choices on technical efficiency and poverty in Nigeria

We test the ‘efficient-but-poor’ hypothesis by estimating the determinants of smallholders' choice over cash or food crops and whether their crop choice affects technical efficiency and poverty using the national household panel data in Nigeria. We employ the stochastic frontier analyses correcting for sample selection about farmers' crop choice. Our results indicate that smallholders are generally efficient in their resource allocations. A treatment effects model is employed to estimate farmers' crop choice in the first stage and the impact of their choices on technical efficiency and poverty outcomes in the second stage. The results show that farmers' access to free inputs, non-farm income and the use of seeds from the previous growing season are important determinants of crop choice. The adoption of cash crops by food-crop producing households will not generally reduce poverty, although it will improve technical efficiency marginally. However, if cash crops are commercialised, poverty tends to decline.     

Equilibrium pricing of commodity spot and forward under incomplete markets with implications on convenience yield

Annals of Finance - This paper analyzes the relation between commodity spot, forward prices, and convenience yield under incomplete markets. Since production is a necessary process for commodity...