The Effect of Payment Methods on Risk Aversion

Risk aversion experiments such as those by Holt and Laury (2002, 2005) measure risk aversion by examining subjects’ responses to a series of probability-ordered choices. Subjects are paid real money rewards, using the random round payment method in which the amount is determined by one randomly selected decision. The findings reported here were obtained from 119 subjects who confronted the same choice set and payment amounts, but 60 of these subjects were paid using the random-round method while the remaining 59 were paid based on an average of all their choices, the accumulated value method. The accumulated value payment method simulates portfolio returns, as opposed to returns from stand alone investments. Results indicate that accumulated value subjects took more risk and made more inconsistent decisions.     

Embedded markets: A dialogue between F.A. Hayek and Karl Polanyi

The recent economic crisis has once more underscored the close connection between markets and social life, thrusting this point at the centre of the analysis of economic and political activity and has once more asked the question of whether and how individuals are embedded in both. Here I argue that an analysis and partial reconciliation of the positions of F.A. Hayek and Karl Polanyi on the topic can help in this debate.     

Towards equilibrium offers in unit commitment auctions with nonconvex costs

We compare two types of uniform-price auction formats commonly used in wholesale electricity markets—centrally committed and self-committed markets. Auctions in both markets are conducted by an independent system operator that collects generator bids and determines which generators will operate and how much electricity each will produce. In centrally committed markets, generators submit two-part bids consisting of a startup cost and a variable energy cost. Self-committed markets force generators to incorporate their startup costs into a one-part energy bid. The system operator in a centrally committed system ensures that each generator recovers the startup and energy costs stated in its two-part bid, while no such guarantees are made in self-committed markets. The energy cost ranking and incentive properties of these market designs remains an open question. While the system operator can determine the most efficient dispatch with a centralized market, the auction mechanism used to solicit generator data compels generators to overstate costs. Self commitment might involve less efficient dispatch but have better incentive properties. We derive Nash equilibria for both market designs in a symmetric duopoly setting. We also derive simple conditions under which the two market designs will be expected cost-equivalent.     

A Bayesian Bioeconometric Model of Invasive Species Control: The Case of the Hemlock Woolly Adelgid

In this article we evaluate a US Forest Service plan to mitigate damages from an invasive insect on public, forested land. We develop a dynamic model of infestation and control to explicitly account for biological interactions, baseline conditions, and uncertainty, thus creating a more complete picture of policy impacts than a static cost benefit analysis could provide. We combine the results of the dynamic model with an empirical study of nonmarket forest benefits to create a bioeconomic model of ecosystem management. Estimating the empirical model in a Bayesian framework allows us to treat the economic coefficients of the dynamic model as random variables. We specify distributions for the biological parameters and examine the effects of both biological and economic uncertainty on the predictive distribution of net benefits. We find that the net benefits of the program are positive, and that uncertainty in the biological model contributes substantially more to the variance of our estimate than does uncertainty over the valuation of the resource.     

Corporate Governance as Part of the Strategic Process: Rethinking the Role of the Board

Commercial food health branding is a challenging branch of marketing because it might, at the same time, promote healthy living and be commercially viable. However, the power to influence individuals’ health behavior and overall health status makes it crucial for marketing professionals to take into account the ethical dimensions of health branding: this article presents a conceptual analysis of potential ethical problems in health branding. The analysis focuses on ethical concerns related to the application of three health brand elements (functional claims, process claims, and health symbols) as well as a number of general concerns that apply to health branding as such. Being a pioneering analysis, this article advances the academic understanding of health branding and provides practitioners with knowledge of important concerns to take into account when marketing health brands.     

The predictive power of fund ratings with a novel approach using uncertainty measures to analyzing risk

Using two approaches to panel data, Granger causality analysis with semi-asymptotic tests, and a structural approach based on entropies measured on sequences of multiperiod ratings and returns, we specify the relationship between a fund’s performance and both Morningstar and Europerformance ratings. We conclude on the Europerformance agency’s forecasting ability for the Luxembourg funds, and the Morningstar agency for the French funds. Indeed, we find two groups of funds depending on their domiciliation and appropriated rating. The results of this paper have implications for the management of fund portfolios, and the structural approach, more robust to our data, must be a first process for forecast models on the basis of similar funds, minor uncertainty or risk measure, and appropriated rating.     

Foreign direct investment in the privatisation of the Polish economy

In the 1990s a major change took place in the ownership structure in the Polish economy, with a dramatic shift towards the private sector. The following article examines the different ways in which privatisation has taken place, the penetration of foreign capital into the Polish economy and the role which foreign direct investment has played in the transformation process. The author is an expert of the Goansk Institute for Market Economics; she would like to thank Catherine Lockhead-Strzępka, Institute of Economics at the University of Information Technology in Rzeszów, for corrections to the English translation.     

A comprehensive German business cycle chronology

Business cycle chronologies offer reference points for empirical studies used as benchmarks for business cycle and recession theory. A quasi-official chronology exists for the US economy, but not for most European countries, including Germany. While most papers dealing with business cycle dates rely on one specific method, I present and discuss a number of different dating approaches based on the classical business cycle. These are applied to German GDP data comprising 1970–2006. Finally, based on the results of the different methods, a consensus business cycle chronology for the German economy is suggested.