Closed-form Bayesian inferences for the logit model via polynomial expansions

Articles in Marketing and choice literatures have demonstrated the need for incorporating person-level heterogeneity into behavioral models (e.g., logit models for multiple binary outcomes as studied here). However, the logit likelihood extended with a population distribution of heterogeneity doesn’t yield closed-form inferences, and therefore numerical integration techniques are relied upon (e.g., MCMC methods). We present here an alternative, closed-form Bayesian inferences for the logit model, which we obtain by approximating the logit likelihood via a polynomial expansion, and then positing a distribution of heterogeneity from a flexible family that is now conjugate and integrable. For problems where the response coefficients are independent, choosing the Gamma distribution leads to rapidly convergent closed-form expansions; if there are correlations among the coefficients one can still obtain rapidly convergent closed-form expansions by positing a distribution of heterogeneity from a Multivariate Gamma distribution. The solution then comes from the moment generating function of the Multivariate Gamma distribution or in general from the multivariate heterogeneity distribution assumed. Closed-form Bayesian inferences, derivatives (useful for elasticity calculations), population distribution parameter estimates (useful for summarization) and starting values (useful for complicated algorithms) are hence directly available. Two simulation studies demonstrate the efficacy of our approach. JEL Classification C6 · C8 · M3     

Honesty, Individualism, and Pragmatic Business Ethics: Implications for Corporate Hierarchy

The boundaries of honesty are the focal point of this exploration of the individualistic origins of modernist ethics and the consequent need for a more pragmatic approach to business ethics. The tendency of modernist ethics to see honesty as an individual responsibility is described as a contextually naive approach, one that fails to account for the interactive effects between individual choices and corporate norms. By reviewing the empirical accounts of managerial struggles with ethical dilemmas, the article arrives at the contextual preconditions for encouraging the development of reflective moral agents in modern corporations.     

Fictitious persons and real responsibilities

I believe that corporations should be held responsible for their actions. Traditional discussions about the moral responsibility of an organization have relied on a model of criminal intent. Demonstrating intent demands that we find a moral agent capable of intending, and this has led to problems. Here I replace the analysis based on criminal law by one based on tort law. Under this framework I suggest that corporations can be held responsible for the harms caused by their activities even if no person or persons in their decision making structure had formed malicious intent, since the sheer fact that the corporate environment encouraged or allowed negligence will be sufficient.Kevin Gibson is an Assistant Professor and associate of the Center for Ethics at Marquette University, Milwaukee. Dr. Gibson's research interests are in applied ethics, including business ethics and the ethics of negotiation. He is presently working on a major study examining unintended moral lapses.     

Spillovers in Exchange Rates and the Effects of Global Shocks on Emerging Market Currencies

This paper provides an investigation into the spillover effects of exchange rate returns and volatility for developed and emerging market currencies, using data from 1997 to 2011. The results suggest that spillovers in exchange rate returns have increased steadily over time, in moderate reaction to economic events. In contrast, spillovers in total observed volatility (measured by squared returns) react more strongly to economic events, and this transmission has remained at a relatively high level since the global financial crisis. Furthermore, over the course of time, global shocks would appear to account for a larger proportion of aggregate exchange rate volatility (and the relative importance of domestic shocks has declined). The paper also considers whether the increase in volatility spillover is due to sudden shocks, or whether it is due to changes in the stochastic trend of the underlying volatility process. The results suggests that in most cases, this increase is due to sudden shocks, however, in certain instances country‐specific events may perpetuate changes to the trend of the underlying volatility spillover.     

Within-series momentum in hockey: No returns for running up the score

Drawing on data from 916 Division 1 men’s college hockey games played during a recent six-year period in the Western Collegiate Hockey Association (WCHA), we find evidence that positive momentum within 458 two-game series does not exist when controlling for team quality. We find that neither victory nor the margin of victory in Game 1 of a two-game series is predictive of the outcome of Game 2. We suggest that loss aversion should be considered in relation to questions of momentum.     

The Economics of Regulating Cross-border Finance: Two New Views

For much of the 20th century the dominant view in macroeconomics was that cross-border finance needed to be regulated in order to balance the ‘impossible trinity’ first sketched by John Maynard Keynes in his two books on monetary theory. The dominant view in development economics during the same period was that cross-border capital flows need to be regulated for similar reasons but also to mobilize domestic resources for economic development. The view that capital mobility was something to be constrained fell out of favor in mainstream economics by the 1980s and 1990s. The experience of numerous financial crises in the past 20 years has spawned new economic theories that reintroduce the notion that cross-border finance can cause financial instability. One strand of new theory in this realm picks up from Ragnar Nurkse, Hyman Minsky, and others, and has become popular in many emerging market capitals and in the United Nations system. Another strand of new theory comes from modern welfare economics and is gaining ground in mainstream economics, central banks, and the Bretton Woods institutions. This paper examines these new breakthroughs and traces them to their origins in economic thought. Coupled with new econometric evidence on the efficacy of capital account regulation, the regulation of capital flows is justified now more than ever.     

Internationalization's effect on marketing learning: A study of Syrian firms

The aim of the present study is to understand the effects of international expansion on firms' acquisition of marketing learning. This study's focus on marketing learning complements previous research on the impact of internationalization on the development of foreign-market and technological knowledge. The research finds that the scope of a firm's international activities, perception of gaps in marketing knowledge, and external social capital positively influence firms' acquisition of marketing learning. However, firm's age at initial international market entry appears not to be a significant factor. The study adds to the very limited body of research on the marketing learning outcomes of international expansion, while also offering rare empirical insights from the Middle East on this important subject matter. The paper discusses implications for international managers, policy makers, and future researchers.     

Retaining volunteers for the cause: Hope and pride associated with cause-related charity events in cancer control

Special charity events are an important source of revenue for non-profit organisations in cancer control yet volunteering is declining and turnover is high. Experiences at cause-related events may influence retention, particularly emotions connected to the cause and ceremonies which honour cancer survivors and remember loved ones. We explore the degree to which emotions associated with cause-related volunteering and collective action in the literature are felt in response to Relay For Life and what emotions predict three indicators of retention: intention to return for future events, satisfaction with volunteering, and organisational commitment. Volunteers (n = 410) completed a cross-sectional survey at Relay For Life events in Queensland, Australia. Multiple regression analyses examined whether emotions associated with events predicted each indicator of retention, adjusting for number of years spent volunteering for events. Sixty-two percent reported an intention to return the following year. The most commonly reported event-related emotions were hope, pride, and empathy (62–69%). Intention to return, satisfaction, and commitment were each significantly predicted by hope and pride. The findings suggest special charity events in cancer control could retain volunteers by fostering pride and hope (e.g., for a cancer free future); however, future prospective research which examines the mechanisms of these relationships is warranted.     

Is sin always a sin? The interaction effect of social norms and financial incentives on market participants’ behavior

Using alcohol, tobacco, and gaming consumption data and people’s attitudes toward these sin products to proxy for social norm acceptance levels, we show a strong interaction effect between social norms and financial incentives, which significantly influence the behavior of market participants. Specifically, institutional investors’ shareholdings and analyst coverage of sin companies increase with the degree of social norm acceptance. The association between shareholdings/coverage and social norm acceptance is less pronounced for firms with higher future expected performance. Our results show that social norms and financial incentives have a powerful interaction effect in determining the behavior of market participants, suggesting that social norms can be crossed when motive and opportunity exist.