Mortality regimes and longevity risk in a life annuity portfolio

This paper explores the presence of changes of trends or jumps in French mortality from 1947 to 2007, and assesses their implications on the longevity risk management of a life annuity portfolio. We accomplish this by extending the Poisson log-bilinear regression developed by Brouhns et al. (2002) with a regime-switching model. Estimation results show that French mortality is characterized by two distinct regimes. One refers to a strong uncertainty state, which corresponds to the longevity conditions observed during the decade following World War II. The second regime is related to the low volatility of longevity improvements observed during the last 30 years. We use these results to analyze the impact of mortality regimes on the longevity risk management of a life annuity portfolio. Simulation results suggest that the changes of trends in the mortality process have some implications for longevity risk management.     

‘Professionals who understand’: Expertise,public interest and societal risk governance

This paper applies ideas from Beck, Power and Collins & Evans to investigate why crises triggered by societal risks heighten tension between self-regulated experts and the state, and why this increased tension threatens professional self-regulation. Using an Irish case of the regulation of professional auditors, we find that Beck helps us to understand the accounting bodies’ view of their own position as experts and their role in mitigating risk. Beck’s idea of a closed organizational roof, Collins and Evans (2002) work on waves of risk and expertise, and Power’s insights on the significance of public perception of risk are deployed as a framework to explore why these bodies lost power to a non-expert state which more clearly grasped the importance of lay power in a time of crisis. We propose the idea of professional regulation as a form of societal risk governance; this provides a frame to investigate why the state was able to harness a growing public disquiet to assert more control in their relationship with the professional bodies, and underscores the precedence of public interest over expertise in the self-regulatory debate. An analysis of the perspectives of government, profession and civil society illustrates inherent vulnerabilities in the authority of a self-regulated professional body excessively reliant on its own expertise.     

When should households be compensated for land-use restrictions? A decision-making framework for Chinese forest policy

Competing uses of land mean that regulations aimed at environmental conservation often conflict with the land-use rights of rural households. Several reports suggest that this has occurred with the introduction of the Natural Forest Protection Programme (NFPP) in China, one of the world's largest logging ban programmes. This paper investigates whether households should be compensated for infringements on property rights, drawing on institutional economics literature on regulation. We distinguish between cases where regulation solves local collective action problems and increases the welfare of those affected, and those where regulation involves a redistribution of rights from one group to another. We apply this to the NFPP by estimating the net welfare impacts, using household level stated preference data with econometric techniques that explicitly account for zero and negative values of the dependent variable. We find that the ban on logging does not affect the net welfare of the affected forest communities. This indicates that the losses resulting from the restrictions on property rights are offset by the benefits from restrictions on other local households. We also find evidence that a partial reduction in logging would be welfare increasing, indicating that the NFPP is to some extent addressing local collective action problems in forest areas. Broader implications for the question of compensating for infringement of property rights as the result of regulatory interventions in contexts of institutional imperfections are also drawn.     

Converting Forests to Farms: The Economic Benefits of Clearing Forests in Agricultural Settlements in the Amazon

Agricultural expansion into tropical forests is believed to bring local economic benefits at the expense of global environmental costs. The resulting tension is reflected in Brazilian government policy. The national agrarian reform program has settled farm families in the Amazon region since the 1970s, with the expectation that they will clear forests in order to farm the land. On the other hand, recent Brazilian policy initiatives seek to reduce deforestation to mitigate climate change. We contribute to the policy debate that surrounds these dual goals for the Amazon by estimating the marginal effects of new agricultural land on the full income and assets of farm settlers over a 13-year period from 1996 to 2009. Using micro panel data from agrarian settlements where forest was being rapidly cleared, and controlling for factors that would otherwise confound the relationship, we estimate the effect of converting forest to agriculture on total household income to estimate the opportunity cost of conserving forest. Our measure of income reflects any re-allocation of resources by utility maximizing households and any productivity effects due to loss of forest ecosystem services. The estimated effect of new agricultural land on income is positive, but small relative to the income per hectare of previously cleared land. However, we show that income increases investment in physical assets, which raises households’ income generating capacity and future accumulation of assets. Thus, while there is only a small immediate income gain from clearing more forest, the long-term effects on wealth are still substantial. This demonstrates that given the right conditions, conversion of forest to agricultural land can be an impetus for asset accumulation by smallholders. It also highlights the importance of considering the indirect and long-term welfare benefits of new agricultural land when assessing the opportunity costs of forest conservation.     

The emergence and performance of the Chinese merger market and the impact of partner location

Chinese acquirers spent $38 million on mergers and acquisitions in 1990, and $666.1 billion on mergers and acquisitions in 2016. As the Chinese merger market has grown, so too has the literature on its performance. Little is known, however, about with whom Chinese firms can best do business. We aim to fill this gap. We suggest that because the liabilities of distance, foreignness, and outsideness complicate acquisition performance, targets in countries and regions which add fewer of these liabilities will outperform those that add more. We plot the overseas expansion of Chinese acquirers, and compare the performance of Chinese acquisitions, within the Greater China region, within the Confucian cultural sphere, and between Asian and the West. In each case, we predict that increasing cultural distance decreases performance. Then, because the Continental European governance system is institutionally more familiar to the Chinese system than it is to the Anglo-Saxon system, we consider the Chinese experience in each of these two systems. Our results largely support our hypotheses built on the partner location performance hierarchy argument, but we also point to the limits of the generalizability of existing literature in understanding the Chinese market.     

Shared parent–child leisure time in four countries

The relative influences of resource and cultural differences on leisure behaviour and orientations in a pair of new towns, one in the United States (Reston) and the other in England (Telford) are compared. Three kinds of data were obtained: (a) the investigator lived in Telford for six weeks and participated in formal and informal leisure activities, supplementing observation with informal interviewing; (b) the planning department of Telford Development Corporation supplied materials on residents and their backgrounds, recreation provision and participation, and plans for the future; (c) the survey instrument used with 215 adults in the Reston study was revised and administered to 40 Telford adults.