SAVING AND INVESTMENT: PARADIGMS, PUZZLES, POLICIES

The 1990s have seen a renewed interest in issues of capitalaccumulation and growth. New paradigms for saving, investment,and growth have been advanced to address theoretical and empiricalpuzzles and to guide the design of better policies. This paperprovides a policy-oriented review of recent theoretical andempirical work on the determinants of saving and investmentand on their links to growth. It takes stock of new findingsas well as still unresolved questions and gives particular attentionto empirical regularities and to the policy issues relevantto developing countries.      

A second look at the Maastricht Treaty

The Maastricht Treaty aims to define the path towards a single currency in the European Community by the end of the century. The following article analyzes the strategy laid down in the Treaty in the light of recent events, highlights its internal contradictions and the obstacles it is likely to meet, and assesses its chances of success. Official of the Commission of the European Communities, currently on secondment in France. The views expressed in this article are the personal views of the author.     

Productivity gaps and capacity utilization in the manufacturing sectors of five OECD-countries, 1963–1982

The purpose of this paper is to apply some novel features in the theory of productivity indexes to the measurement of productivity gaps. It advances the proposition that one reason for the persistence of productivity gaps might be that the methodology of measuring gaps does not separate shifts of the production function due to intercountry efficiency from shifts due to intercountry differences in capacity utilization.In this paper we calculate productivity gaps for four OECD countries relative to the U.S., adjusted for cyclical variations in capacity utilization for the period 1963–1982. The theoretical foundation of our measurement is based on a variable cost function approach with short-run fixity of capital. Without adjusting for differences in capacity utilization within the countries, productivity gaps are a mixture of differences in productivity and in capacity utilization.The refereeing process of this paper was handled through C. Morrison.     

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How Sure Can You Be? A Framework for Considering Delivery Uncertainty in Benefit Assessments Based on Stated Preference Methods

The economic valuation of benefits resulting from environmental policies and interventions often assumes that environmental outcomes are certain. In fact, these outcomes are typically uncertain. This article proposes a methodological approach to incorporate delivery uncertainty into benefit estimation based on stated preference methods. In the study design of a choice experiment survey on land‐based climate change mitigation, we explicitly include delivery uncertainty as the risk that a proposed mitigation project fails to deliver emission savings. We find that respondents’ preferences do not change significantly after being confronted with choices that included risk of failure. However, failure risk itself does have an important impact on the preferences for delivering emission reductions. We show that delivery uncertainty can have a large impact on stated preference estimation of benefits of public programmes. This result should condition conclusions drawn from ex‐ante environmental cost‐benefit analyses that make use of such benefit estimates.     

Global land investments in the bio‐economy: evidence and policy implications

For countries dependent on agriculture, the recent wave of investor interest in farmland could, in principle, help set in motion a virtuous cycle of economic growth and poverty reduction. A large literature documenting failure of such investments documents the risks involved. To appreciate associated opportunities and challenges, we review past experience, quantify country‐level potential for area expansion versus intensification, and identify determinants of countries’ attractiveness for investors in the initial stages of the “land rush.” The fact that weak land governance seems to increase, rather than reduce, land demand justifies an emphasis on improving institutions, transparency, and accountability while at the same time providing concrete suggestions for policy and research.     

Modelling outcome‐related risk in choice experiments

In this study, we introduce information on outcome‐related risk as an additional attribute in a choice model of preferences for a land‐based climate change mitigation project. We provide a comprehensive comparison of different model specifications arising from different behavioural assumptions about the way that respondents process information on outcome‐related risk within the choice task. We find significant differences between several specifications in terms of both model fit and WTP estimates. The behavioural assumptions made when choosing a particular model specification, and reasons that motivate them should be made explicit, and consequences of using different specifications should not be ignored.     

A cost-effectiveness modeling evaluation comparing a biosimilar follitropin alfa preparation with its reference product for live birth outcome in Germany,Italy and Spain

Abstract

Background/objective: Although biosimilar drugs may be cheaper to purchase than reference biological products, they may not be the most cost-effective treatment to achieve a desired outcome. The analysis reported here compared the overall costs to achieve live birth using the reference follitropin alfa (GONAL-f) or a biosimilar (Ovaleap) in Spain, Italy and Germany.

Methods: Patient and treatment data was obtained from published sources; assisted-reproductive technology, gonadotropin, follow-up and adverse-event-related costs were calculated from tariffs and reimbursement frameworks for each country. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated from the difference in costs between reference and biosimilar in each country, divided by the difference in live-birth rates. Mean cost per live birth was calculated as total costs divided by the live-birth rate.

Results: The published live birth rates were 32.2% (reference) and 26.8% (biosimilar). Drug costs per patient were higher for the reference recombinant human follicle-stimulating hormone in all three countries, with larger cost differences in Germany (€157.38) and Italy (€141.50) than in Spain (€22.41). The ICER for the reference product compared with the biosimilar was €2917.47 in Germany, €415.43 in Spain and €2623.09 in Italy. However, the overall cost per live birth was higher for the biosimilar in all three countries (Germany €8135.04 vs. €9185.34; Italy €8545.22 vs. €9733.37; Spain €14,859.53 vs. €17,767.19). Uncertainty in efficacy, mean gonadotropin dose and costs did not have a strong effect on the ICERs.

Conclusions: When considering live birth outcomes, treatment with the reference follitropin alfa was more cost effective than treatment with the biosimilar follitropin alfa.