日本的农民组织与农村金融

本报告是根据2006年3月18日中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所联合研究生院共同举办的“日本的农民组织与农村金融”专题报告会资料整理而成。报告的内容包括日本农民组织发展的背景、现状,以及农村金融在农民组织发展过程中的作用,同时也揭示了农民组织和农村金融体系之间存在的深层次问题。本报告既是高木总裁多年从事农业工作的思考总结,也是对农业发展和农村金融体系问题的一次深刻剖析,既为关注和研究日本农民组织的科研人员提供了新的素材,也为我国农民组织的发展提供了具有参考价值的意见与建议。希望通过解读本文,能够让关注和研究中日农民合作组织的有识之士获得一些启示。     

Dynamic analysis of patent policy in an endogenous growth model

In this paper, we explore the dynamic properties of an endogenous growth model with finite patent length. We show that there exists a unique equilibrium growth path and that this path exhibits damped oscillations in contrast to the equilibrium path of an endogenous growth model with infinite patent length. We also examine the effects of patent policy on social welfare and show that infinite patent length does not maximize social welfare. Furthermore, we show that, in a growth model that does not exhibit scale effects, a finite patent length maximizes social welfare on the balanced growth path.     

A new perspective on performance persistence: evidence using portfolio holdings

We investigate the existence and sources of performance persistence for Australian equity funds, using monthly portfolio holdings data. We find significant persistence among outperforming rather than underperforming funds, which is primarily related to security selection skill, and is associated with growth‐orientated funds. Meanwhile, the relation between persistence and momentum is secondary and nuanced. Further, persistence largely derives from existing holdings, while subsequent active trading contributes only moderately positive returns for both outperforming and underperforming funds. We also find that persistence fades beyond 6 months and vanishes after 24 months. Our findings differ from those for U.S. equity funds and previous Australian studies, implying that persistence may vary with market context and its identification may depend on data availability.     

Asymptotic Properties Of The Estimator Of The Long-Run Coefficient In A Dynamic Model With Integrated Regressors And Serially Correlated Errors

In this paper we examine the asymptotic properties of the estimator of the long-run coefficient (LRC) in a dynamic regression model with integrated regressors and serially correlated errors. We show that the OLS estimators of the regression coefficients are inconsistent but the OLS-based estimator of the LRC is superconsistent. Furthermore, we propose an alternative consistent estimator of the LRC, compare the two estimators through a Monte Carlo experiment, and find that the proposed estimator is MSE-superior to the OLS-based estimator.     

Optimization in Allocating Goods to Shop Shelves Utilizing Genetic Algorithm for Yogurt Sales Data

How to allocate goods to shop shelves makes great influence to sales amount. Searching the best fit allocation of goods to the shelves is a kind of combinatorial problem. This becomes a problem of integer programming and utilizing genetic algorithm （GA） being an effective method. Reviewing past researches, there are few researches made on this. Formerly, the paper concerning optimization in allocating goods to shop shelves utilizing the GA was presented by us. In those papers, the problem that goods were allowed to allocate in multiple shelves was pursued. In this paper, the problem that does not allow goods to be allocated in multiple shelves is examined and the concept of sales profits and sales probabilities is introduced. Optimization in allocating goods to shop shelves is investigated. An application to the shop shelves for yogurt is executed. Utilizing GA, the optimum solution is pursued and verified by a numerical example. Various patterns of problems must be examined hereafter.     

Can a Regional Trade Agreement Benefit a Nonmember Country without Compensating It?

RTAs are generally formed without any tariff concessions or transfers to nonmember countries. Can such an RTA benefit nonmembers' welfare? In a two‐good three‐country competitive equilibrium model in the absence of an entrepôt, an RTA without concessions to a nonmember will hurt nonmembers' welfare when goods are normal. If one of the member countries is an entrepôt, however, it definitely improves nonmembers' welfare. In a three‐good three‐country model, an RTA without concessions damages the nonmember's welfare, provided that all the goods are normal and substitutes, and that initial tariff levels are small.     

How enterprise strategies are related to innovation and productivity change: an empirical study of Japanese manufacturing firms

This study analyzes the total factor productivity of 1067 Japanese manufacturing firms. In production estimation, we employ the directional distance function and Luenberger productivity indicator. Research and development strategy survey data are used to analyze the determinant factors related to improvements in innovation and productivity. Our results indicate that increasing technology and knowledge through a ‘black box’ process is related to an increase in productivity. Furthermore, the protection and management of production knowledge and expertise is a valid method of increasing global technical change.     

Investment Literacy and Individual Investor Biases: Survey Evidence in the Japanese Stock Market

In this paper, we analyzed the results of our survey on Japanese stock investor’s asset risk management and empirically examined the effect of their investment literacy on their decision-making biases. This paper revealed that the higher the investors’ investment literacy, the lower their overconfidence bias. This suggests that high investment literacy can prevent investors from being influenced by an overconfidence bias and consequently making biased decisions in investment. Therefore, efforts to improve investors’ investment literacy by enhancing social systems such as investment education could be beneficial in guiding investors to make unbiased investment decisions.     

AN ECONOMIC POLICY HYPOTHESIS OF METROPOLITAN GROWTH CYCLES: A Reflection on the Recent Rejuvenation of Tokyo*

Rejecting the simplistic life-cycle hypothesis of cities put forth by Klassen and Paelinck, this paper advances a new hypothesis for the cyclical movements of urban growth that have taken place on a world-wide scale. The recent rejuvenation of major industrialized cities is largely attributed to the shift in the government's economic policies toward a smaller government, supported by the existence of economies of scale in large cities. The paper closely examines Tokyo's recent rejuvenation and shows how the government's conservative economic policies of the 1980's helped reverse the declining trend of the previous decade.     

Capital Flight, North-South Lending, and Stages of Economic Development

We present a two-country OLG economy in which international capital mobility exists in the presence of moral hazard in financial contracts. The difference in the extent of asymmetric information is a source of capital movement and capital flows from the South to the North. Even though there exists a unique steady state under autarky, multiple locally stable steady states may emerge in a world economy with an integrated capital market. However, the integration may drive the South down to further impoverishment. The South's government therefore should take into account seriously the timing of capital market liberalization as a conduit of economic development.