Relationships between macroeconomic time series in a fixed-exchange-rate economy: The case of Italy

This paper presents an empirical analysis that is useful for the task of characterizing the dynamic structure and causal orderings of the underlying macroeconomic model of a fixed-exchange-rate economy. Particular emphasis is given to the formulation and testing of versions of the ‘natural-rate’ hypothesis, the ‘small open economy’ hypothesis, and the ‘non-sterilization’ hypothesis. These issues are examined on the basis of quarterly time series for Italy (1956 1970)     

The Positive Effect of Industrial District on the Export Performance of Italian Firms

Economies of scale in the provision of export services and informal face-to-face exchanges of information about export markets may improve export performance of small firms located in Marshallian districts (locales). This paper presents an empirical test of this hypothesis and finds that geographical agglomeration of small-medium firms in a delimited area significantly affects their export intensity and their probability of becoming exporters. The significance of geographical agglomeration persists in spite of all controls which show how the dependent variable is also (positively) affected by export subsidies, formal export cooperation among firms, cooperation in (and quality of) innovation, size and age.     

The Dynamics of Fair Trade as a Mixed-form Market

This article analyses the Fair Trade sector as a “mixed-form market,” i.e., a market in which different types of players (in this case, nonprofit, co-operative and for-profit organizations) coexist and compete. The purposes of this article are (1) to understand the factors that have led Fair Trade to become a mixed-form market and (2) to propose some trails to understand the market dynamics that result from the interactions between the different types of players. We start by defining briefly Fair Trade, its different dimensions (including the “fair” quality of the products) and its organizational landscape, focusing on the distinction between the pioneer “Alternative Trading Organizations” and the second-mover companies. Then, we recall the theoretical emergence factors for each type of organization (nonprofit, co-operative and for-profit) and apply these emergence factors to the context of Fair Trade. This analysis allows us to capture the specificities of each type of operator with regard to Fair Trade and, thus, to have a better understanding of the dynamics in the sector. Such dynamics includes competition, but also conflict and partnership. Our analysis includes elements on ethical imitation, consumers’ behaviors, effects on welfare and the role of the government.     

Predicting direct marketing response in banking: comparison of class imbalance methods

Customers’ response is an important topic in direct marketing. This study proposes a data mining response model supported by random forests to support the definition of target customers for banking campaigns. Class imbalance is a typical problem in telemarketing that can affect the performance of the data mining techniques. This study also contributes to the literature by exploring the use of class imbalance methods in the banking context. The performance of an undersampling method (the EasyEnsemble algorithm) is compared with that of an oversampling method (the Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique) in order to determine the most appropriate specification. The importance of the attribute features included in the response model is also explored. In particular, discriminative performance was enhanced by the inclusion of demographic information, contact details and socio-economic features. Random forests, supported by an undersampling algorithm, presented very high prediction performance, outperforming the other techniques explored.     

Human Capital Spillovers and Regional Development

This paper introduces technological interdependence into the theoretical framework of Gennaioli et al. (Quarterly Journal of Economics 2013; 128 : 105–164). This extension leads to an expression for regional development with spatial effects that motivates the incorporation of the geographical dimension into their newly constructed database and empirical analysis. Our estimation results corroborate both the necessity of accounting for the presence of spatial dependence to study the determinants of regional income per capita and the importance of educational attainment in explaining regional development differences. Furthermore, we provide evidence that human capital generates positive spatial spillovers. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modeling a Dynamic Portfolio for Pension Plans in Emerging Markets With Myopic and Nonmyopic Behavior

ABSTRACT

We introduce a dynamic formulation for the problem of portfolio selection of pension funds in the absence of a risk-free asset. In emerging markets, a risk-free asset might be unavailable, and the approaches commonly used may no longer be suitable. We use a parametric approach to combine dynamic programming and Monte Carlo simulation to gain additional flexibility. This approach is general in the sense that optimal asset allocation is tractable for all HARA utility functions in the absence of a risk-free asset. The traditional case composed of several risky assets and one risk-free asset is compared to a case in which the risk-free asset is unavailable.     

Attracting Convention and Exhibition Attendance to Complex MICE Venues: Emerging Data from Macao

This study presents an importance‐performance analysis of multi‐level attributes (event, facility and destination) evaluated by delegates attending an exhibition event in a ‘complex meetings, incentive, convention or exhibition (MICE) venue’ in greater China (mainland China, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan). The study's findings expound the relevance of various attributes in light of the emergence of complex MICE venues and destination resorts and, in particular, emphasizes the relative importance of destination – vis‐à‐vis facility – and core event‐related attributes towards determining exhibition attendance. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Monetary policy and exchange market pressure–evidence from sub-Saharan Africa

The purpose of this study was to assess the impact of monetary policy on foreign exchange market pressure (EMP) in developing country contexts for some selected countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and to measure the ability of monetary policy to significantly address currency pressures that arise from trading on the global market. This study was motivated by the fact that most of the SSA countries are developing economies that have negative net export positions and stand to lose significantly from consistently deteriorating foreign exchange position. The study, therefore, employs a dynamic panel model to test the hypothesis that a tighter monetary policy stance lends strength to a currency and vice versa, using 20 SSA economies for the period from 1991 to 2010. This study finds a negative and significant relationship between monetary policy and EMP, implying an easing of EMP in the face of contractionary monetary policy. The findings also point to significant relations between aggregate output, levels of public debt, the current account balance, terms of trade and EMP. Findings of this study have important implications as regards the policy direction on exchange rate and currency management.     

Socially responsible and conventional investment funds: performance comparison and the global financial crisis

We investigate the performance of socially responsible funds (SRFs) and conventional funds (CFs) in different market (geographical area and class size) segments during the period 1992–2012. From an unbalanced sample of more than 22 000 funds, we define a matched sample using a beta-distance measure to match any SRF with the ‘nearest neighbour’ CF in terms of sensitivity to risk factors. Using this matching approach and a recursive analysis, we identify several switch points in the lead/lag relationship between the two investment styles over time in different market segments. A relevant finding of our analysis is that SRFs played an ‘insurance role’ outperforming CFs during the 2007 global financial crisis.     

What are we learning from the life satisfaction literature?

The recent availability of cross-sectional and longitudinal survey data on life satisfaction in a large number of countries gives us the opportunity to verify empirically (and not just to assume) what matters for individuals and what economists and policymakers should take into account when trying to promote personal and societal well-being. We now have ample evidence, generally robust to different cultural backgrounds, on the effects of some important happiness drivers (income, health, unemployment, marital status, etc.) which can be considered “quasi-stylized facts” of happiness. If economic policies, for many obvious reasons, cannot maximize self-declared life satisfaction as such, we are nonetheless learning a lot from these findings. In particular, results on the relevance of relational goods, on the inflation/unemployment trade-off in terms of welfare and, more in general, on the measurement of the shadow value of non-market goods obtained with life satisfaction estimates are conveying relevant information about individual preferences and what is behind utility functions. Such findings suggest that the anthropological reductionism characterizing most economic models can be misleading and that target indicators of economic policies have to be refocused if we want to minimize the distance between economic development and human progress.