Germany and Italy: conflicting policy paradigms towards European monetary integration?

In the literature on European monetary integration Germany and Italy are mostly strongly contrasted. However, this paper argues that there were important similarities between the policy paradigms in these two countries, in particular if a broader historical perspective is adopted. This work analyses the policy paradigms towards European monetary integration in Italy and Germany. Moreover, it contextualises these paradigms into the national institutional setting: while Germany was characterised by power sharing institutions, Italy featured power fragmentation (something which also affected the economic performance of both countries). There were significant differences between the policy paradigms of foreign policy-makers and economic policy-makers. Foreign policy makers, in both countries, under the influence of a European federalist vision, were strongly in favour of European monetary integration. These beliefs of foreign policy decision makers were crucial in charting EMU policy at history-making moments. The pro EMU policy paradigms of foreign policymakers contrasted, during most of the period covered, with the more sceptical beliefs of economic policy makers. In both countries, economic policy-makers, at different moments, had doubts whether enough “convergence” had been reached to make a more stable exchange rate system sustainable.

Learning in a double-phase cobweb model

Decisions in Economics and Finance - In this paper, we study a class of markets, among which we can mention agricultural and energy markets, characterized by seasonality, i.e., in which demand...     

Can Shareholders Be at Rest after Adopting Clawback Provisions? Evidence from Stock Price Crash Risk

Using a propensity score matched sample and a difference‐in‐differences research design, we find that stock price crash risk increases after a firm voluntarily incorporates clawback provisions in executive officers' compensation contracts. This heightened crash risk is concentrated in adopters that increase upward real activities‐based earnings management and those that reduce the readability of 10‐K reports. Based on cross‐sectional analyses, we also find that the increased crash risk is more pronounced for adopters with high ex ante fraud risk, low‐ability managers, high CEO equity incentives, and low dedicated institutional ownership. Collectively, our results suggest that the clawback adoption per se does not curb managerial opportunism but rather induces managers to use alternative channels for concealing bad news, which may contribute to a greater stock price crash risk; and the increase in crash risk is more likely in cases where incentives are strong or monitoring is weak. Our results should be of interest to regulators and policymakers considering the effects of clawback adoption on the investing public.     

Co-opted directors,gender diversity,and crash risk: evidence from China

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - This study examines how the composition of the board of directors at Chinese firms affects crash risk. The results indicate that co-opted directors...     

Exogenous and Endogenous Attention and the Convergence of Analysts’ Forecasts

The propensity of the forecasts of sell-side financial analysts to converge (or diverge) is a function of their exogenous and endogenous selective attention and overconfidence. When returns are negative, the endogenous form of selective attention—a static measure of analysts’ goal-driven attention at a particular point in time—has a positive association with convergence. The exogenous form of selective attention—a relatively involuntary dynamic process of exogenous attentional shift driven by external changes in the market over time—is associated with a tendency for forecasts to diverge.     

Covered interest arbitrage profits: The role of liquidity and credit risk

We study the profitability of Covered Interest Parity (CIP) arbitrage violations and their relationship with market liquidity and credit risk using a novel and unique dataset of tick-by-tick firm quotes for all financial instruments involved in the arbitrage strategy. The empirical analysis shows that positive CIP arbitrage deviations include a compensation for liquidity and credit risk. Once these risk premia are taken into account, small arbitrage profits only accrue to traders who are able to negotiate low trading costs. The results are robust to stale pricing and the nonsynchronous trading occurring in the markets involved in the arbitrage strategy.     

Assessing financial market integration in Asia – Equity markets

Financial integration has strong implications for financial stability. On the one hand, financial integration among economies helps to improve their capacity to absorb shocks and foster development. On the other hand, intensified financial linkages in a world of increasing capital mobility may also harbour the risk of cross-border financial contagion. This paper provides a survey of high-frequency indicators to monitor the development of equity market integration in Asia. The results show that after slowing down between 2002 and 2006, the equity market integration process picked up again in 2007–08. Nevertheless, the process is not complete and the degrees of integration between mature and emerging equity markets are different. The divergence may be attributed to the difference in the political, economic and institutional aspects across jurisdictions in Asia.