Modeling Methods for Discrete Choice Analysis

This paper introduces new forms, sampling and estimation approaches fordiscrete choice models. The new models include behavioral specifications oflatent class choice models, multinomial probit, hybrid logit, andnon-parametric methods. Recent contributions also include new specializedchoice based sample designs that permit greater efficiency in datacollection. Finally, the paper describes recent developments in the use ofsimulation methods for model estimation. These developments are designed toallow the applications of discrete choice models to a wider variety ofdiscrete choice problems.     

How does earnings management influence investor’s perceptions of firm value? Survey evidence from financial analysts

Survey evidence shows CFOs to believe that earnings management can enhance investor valuation of their firms. This evidence raises the question of correspondence between the beliefs of CFOs and investors. Surveying financial analysts to gain insight into how earnings management influences investor perception of firm value, we find analysts’ and CFOs’ beliefs to be generally consistent. We find that analysts perceive meeting earnings benchmarks and smoothing earnings to enhance investor perception of firm value and all earnings management actions to reach a benchmark, save share repurchases, to be value destroying. CFOs, however, are reluctant to repurchase shares, preferring to use techniques viewed by analysts as value destroying (e.g., reductions in discretionary spending). Analysts’ inability to unravel such techniques perhaps explains CFOs’ preferences.     

Motivations for aid to developing countries

This paper attempts to identify the underlying principles of aid allocation, and particularly the balance of motivations as between the needs of recipient countries and the interests of donor countries. Two alternative models are fitted by cross-country regressions to bilateral and multilateral aid flows to some 80 developing countries in 1969–1970 and 1978–1980. The first (recipient need) model assumes that all aid is given to compensate for shortfalls in domestic resources. This model provides a reasonable explanation for the distribution of multilateral aid, but it is clearly not applicable for bilateral aid flows. The second (donor interest) model assumes that all aid serves only donor interests, defined to cover political/security investment and trade interests. This model gives generally good explanations of bilateral aid, but is a poor fit for multilateral aid. The relative importance of the various donor interests differs sharply among donors. The paper ends with an analysis of the shift in the balance of aid over the 1970s towards the recipient need element, and with a reference to the sharp change in policy in the 1980s towards increasing emphasis on donor interest aid.     

A brand choice model for TV advertising management using single-source data

A brand choice model for TV advertising management using single-source data is proposed. The model replaces household-specific advertising exposure, which is often used as a covariate in a brand choice model, with gross rating points (GRP), a managerial control variable for advertising. In particular, given daily GRP, a probabilistic model of advertising exposure for heterogeneous customers is integrated into a brand choice model with advertising threshold under a Bayesian framework. Through hierarchical modeling, demographic information on panels provides managerial insights into advertising planning.     

Peliosis of the spleen with intraperitoneal hemorrhage

We encountered a patient with steroidrelated peliosis of the spleen, a rare disease characterized by multiple blood-filled cavities in the splenic parenchyma, with spontaneous intraperitoneal hemorrhage. The ultrasonographic, computed tomographic, and angiographic images were compared with pathologic findings of the material obtained surgically.     

The Multi-Sector Business Cycle Model and Aggregate Shocks: An Empirical Analysis

This paper discusses the applicability of a multi-sector business cycle model to the Japanese economy. Through dynamic factor analysis, output fluctuations are broken down into aggregate and sectoral shocks. It is shown that independent sectoral shocks are more significant than common shocks, which is consistent with the model proposed by Long and Plosser (1983). In addition, the paper reveals that the importance of aggregate shocks increased during the so-called "Bubble" period in the late 1980s.     

Investor relations,reputational bonding,and corporate governance: The case of Royal Ahold

Royal Ahold (Koninklijke Ahold NV) was one of the major success stories in the 1990s and is one of the major failures, suffering a complete meltdown, in 2003. We investigate the strategy, investor relations, accounting transparency and corporate governance of Ahold; these elements jointly drive the firm’s performance over the past decade. Investor relations and its implications are an important but under researched aspect of the market’s belief formation process. For Ahold, investor relations is an important component of reputational bonding [Siegel, J., 2005. Can foreign firms bond themselves effectively by renting US securities laws? Journal of Financial Economics 75, 319–359]. Our clinical study documents investor relations’ influence on investor expectations. We then provide an in-depth analysis of the strategy, accounting transparency and corporate governance that lead to Ahold’s downfall. We provide insights and implications into these relationships that present theory and empirical studies have not fully addressed.     

Who Faces Higher Prices? An Empirical Analysis Based on Japanese Homescan Data

On the basis of household‐level scanner data (called homescan data) for Japan, we construct a household‐level price index and investigate the causes of price differences across households. We observe large price differentials across households, a result that is consistent with the previous research based on the data in the USA. However, the differences across age and income groups are small. In addition, we find that elderly people face higher prices than the younger ones, which is contrary to the results of the previous research. The most important determinant of the price level is the extent to which households rely on bargain sales; doubling purchases of goods at bargain sales decreases the price level by about 2%, while shopping frequency only has a limited effect on the price level.     

Environmental Protection in the Presence of Unemployment and Common Resources

This paper examines the effects of an export tax (on a processed resource good), the number of harvesters and an afforestation policy in a small, open economy with urban unemployment. The export tax increases the urban unemployment rate, but improves the quality of the environment. Here, the optimal export tax is lower than the adjusted marginal environmental damage. Reducing the number of harvesters has a similar resource allocation effect to that of an export tax. However, the afforestation policy can resolve the trade‐off between urban unemployment and the quality of the environment and may also improve the welfare of a country.