Impact of financial and multinational operations on manager perceptions of dividends

We survey managers of firms listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange about their views on dividends. We find the perceptions of factors that influence dividend policy differ between managers of financial and non-financial firms. Industry classification also affects how managers view statements about the dividend pattern, dividend setting process, dividend policy and firm value, residual dividend theory, and explanations for paying dividends. However, we find weak, if any, multinational operations effect on manager perception of dividends. We conclude that researchers investigating dividends should partition the data by industry type and perhaps other firm characteristics to better understand the dividend puzzle.     

Random walk and breaking trend in financial series: An econometric critique of unit root tests

The present note sheds light on several pitfalls associated with unit root tests that are overlooked by a growing volume of literature in financial economics. Specifically, several studies have confused unit root tests with the Random Walk hypothesis. Unit root tests are not designed for such a task since they aim at investigating whether a time series is difference-stationary or trend-stationary and are not, therefore, predictability tests. Secondly, we emphasize some serious shortcomings associated with the widely used unit root test developed by Zivot and Andrews [Zivot, E. & Andrews, D.W.K. (1992). Further evidence on the great crash, the oil-price shock, and the unit-root hypothesis. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10, 251–270.]. In particular, we stress that results from the Zivot–Andrews test are sensitive to the methods employed to calculate the critical values and to select the maxim lag k. Furthermore, Zivot–Andrews test imposes a one time structural break in a time series; however recent studies showed that not counting for other true structural breaks may bias the results and may cause a spurious rejection of the unit root null hypothesis. Finally, we support our arguments by an empirical example based on the findings of Narayan and Smyth [Narayan, K.P. & Smyth, R. (2004). Is South Korea’s stock market efficient? Applied Economics Letters, 11, 707–710.] with regards to the efficiency of South Korean stock market. We show that contrary to what the authors claim, the KSE (KOSPI) price index is predictable, and hence the South Korean stock market is not informationally efficient.     

The effect of financial liberalization on banking sector stability

Several studies indicate that financial liberalization increases likelihood of a financial crisis without distinguishing between a normal period, unstable period preceding the onset of banking panics and crisis/post period. We explain in this paper the relationship between financial liberalization and banking sector vulnerability. Then, we argue that banking sector turmoil is most likely to occur after an intermediate degree of liberalization. Using a recently updated dataset for financial reforms, we find an inverted U-shaped relationship between liberalization and the likelihood of banking crisis for a sample of 49 countries between 1980 and 2010. We used a multinomial logit model in order to take into account what is called the ‘post crisis bias’. We ask whether the relationship remains when institutional characteristics of countries and dynamic effects of liberalization are considered. The empirical results indicate that the relationship between liberalization and banking sector stability depends strongly on the strength of capital regulation and supervision. With very weak regulation and supervision, the probability of banking crises is increasing with liberalization but this relationship is reversed as regulation and supervision become significant. The most important type of liberalization in relation to banking crises seems to be operational. A policy implication is that positive growth effects of liberalization can be achieved without increasing the risk of a banking fragility if appropriate institutions are developed.     

Unpacking the effect of exploration during environmental uncertainty: Evidence from the information technology sector

Environmental uncertainty can render managerial decision‐making about resource deployment particularly difficult. Integrating the knowledge‐based view of the firm and the organizational learning literature, we make a case for deploying specific knowledge‐based resources to cope with specific types of environmental uncertainty. We unbundle knowledge‐based resources into technology‐based and social‐network‐based resources and, using Milliken's (1987) typology of environmental uncertainty, we hypothesize that (a) technological exploration will be more effective during state uncertainty and (b) while being generally beneficial, social exploration will prove more effective during response uncertainty. An analysis of the financial performance of information technology (IT) firms in the United States over the period 1995–2004 generally supports our hypotheses. Copyright © 2015 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Parametric Value-at-Risk analysis: Evidence from stock indices

We evaluate the performance of several volatility models in estimating one-day-ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR) of seven stock market indices using a number of distributional assumptions. Because all returns series exhibit volatility clustering and long range memory, we examine GARCH-type models including fractionary integrated models under normal, Student-t and skewed Student-t distributions. Consistent with the idea that the accuracy of VaR estimates is sensitive to the adequacy of the volatility model used, we find that AR (1)-FIAPARCH (1,d,1) model, under a skewed Student-t distribution, outperforms all the models that we have considered including widely used ones such as GARCH (1,1) or HYGARCH (1,d,1). The superior performance of the skewed Student-t FIAPARCH model holds for all stock market indices, and for both long and short trading positions. Our findings can be explained by the fact that the skewed Student-t FIAPARCH model can jointly accounts for the salient features of financial time series: fat tails, asymmetry, volatility clustering and long memory. In the same vein, because it fails to account for most of these stylized facts, the RiskMetrics model provides the least accurate VaR estimation. Our results corroborate the calls for the use of more realistic assumptions in financial modeling.     

Overall effects of financial liberalization: financial crisis versus economic growth

ABSTRACT

The contribution of this work consists firstly in decomposing the effect of financial liberalization into a global direct positive effect on growth and an indirect negative effect via financial fragility and crisis. We show that the aggregate positive effect of financial liberalization outweighs the negative partial or temporary effect. Secondly, contrary to previous works, we distinguish many types of financial reforms. We found that equity market liberalization is the most important component in reducing economical costs associated with financial crisis. Thus, equity market liberalization is the most important favoring growth. Interest rate liberalization enhances significantly the probability of crisis leading to a short-run indirect effect more important than other financial reforms. Thirdly, we improved our work by addressing model uncertainty using Bayesian Model Averaging techniques to choose appropriate indicators for model crisis specification.     

EXTERNAL GOVERNANCE AND THE COST OF EQUITY FINANCING

We examine whether and how competitive pressure in the product market influences the cost of equity capital. Using a large panel of U.S. public firms, we find that intensification of product market competition results in lower equity financing costs. Our results are statistically significant and economically sizable. In line with the view of the disciplinary role of product market competition, we show that corporate governance, payout policy, and investment policy are channels through which competitive pressure influences the cost of equity capital.     

Cost and profit efficiency of conventional and Islamic banks in GCC countries

Using stochastic frontier approach, this paper investigates the cost and profit efficiency levels of 71 commercial banks in Gulf cooperation council countries over the period 1999–2007. This study also conducts a comparative analysis of the efficiency across countries and between conventional and Islamic banks. Moreover, we examine the bank-specific variables that may explain the sources of inefficiency. The empirical results indicate that banks in the Gulf region are relatively more efficient at generating profits than at controlling costs. We also find that in terms of both cost and profit efficiency levels, the conventional banks on average are more efficient than Islamic banks. Furthermore, we observe a positive correlation of cost and profit efficiency with bank capitalization and profitability, and a negative one with operation cost. Higher loan activity increases the profit efficiency of banks, but it has a negative impact on cost efficiency.     

Leveraging the social welfare chain to provide resilience during disaster

Due to the rampant increase in disasters globally, resilience in supply chain and logistics is receiving greater research attention in various parts of the world. This paper considers the role and contribution of social welfare supply chains in providing resilience. This is a causal phenomenon which has been studied through an exploratory research by building a framework from extant literature, a case study on an Indian non-governmental organization and tested through a social network analysis. We show how in the wake of a disaster, these social welfare supply chains become enablers. The paper provides an inkling into how to improve community resilience in times of disaster. Further, we show how these supply chains use social cohesion embedded in the structure to provide efficiency, diversity and adaptability, thereby bringing resilience into the supply system. Another contribution of this study is the use of visualisation and analysis of social media representation tools for social network analysis in operations.