Contextual Framing and Monetary Incentives in Field Experiments on Risk Preferences: Evidence from German Farmers

Recent studies cast doubt on the ability of abstract experiments to predict decision‐making in the field. Thus, scholars have argued for more ‘realism’ by introducing context to field experiments. Yet, such realism may work against the induced values of monetary incentives in economic experiments. It is an open question whether contextual framing works best with or without inducing values, through methods such as the use of monetary incentives. Using a sample of 146 German farmers, we compare experimentally the predictive power of a framed lottery in an agricultural context vs. using an abstract version. For one half of the sample, lotteries are incentivised; for the other half, they are hypothetical. Although risk preferences differ between treatments, all four lottery tasks correlate poorly with farmers’ real‐world use of risk management instruments such as harvest or hail insurance. Subjects who start with an agricultural framing are willing to take significantly greater risks in the lotteries. More generally, our findings cast doubt on the ability of lottery tasks to predict risk‐taking in the field.     

Leadership in agricultural machinery circles: experimental evidence from Tajikistan

Leadership is critical for the viability of rural groups. The way in which leadership is legitimised can mediate leader and group member behaviour in the face of social dilemmas. Yet there has been scant research on leader‐follower dynamics in naturally occurring groups. Highlighting the case of agricultural machinery circles in Tajikistan, the effect of leading by example on investments to a collective good is studied in a framed field experiment. To increase realism, and contrary to standard economic experiments, this investment is a voucher allowing the group to make a real‐world machinery purchase at reduced costs. Two treatments manipulate leaders’ legitimisation. Elected leaders achieve 30 per cent higher contributions to the collective investment against a baseline version without a leader. Contributions remain, on average, relatively stable over the course of the game. The results are discussed with reference to the debate on external intervention in agricultural producer organisations.     

CEOs' Passion for Inventing and Radical Innovations in SMEs: The Moderating Effect of Shared Vision

Based on a sample of 388 small and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs), we investigate how a CEO's passion for inventing is associated with radical innovations in SMEs. Furthermore, we examine whether this relationship is moderated by a shared vision. Our results demonstrate that CEOs who are passionate about inventing play a significant role with regard to radical innovation and that the degree to which a firm's members share its vision is positively correlated with this relationship. Our findings enrich upper echelons theory by incorporating insights into how deep‐level psychological traits are related to firm outcomes. In addition, we enhance our understanding of how passion can actually predict firm‐level outcomes.     

Back to Buchanan? Explorations of welfare and subjectivism in behavioral economics

In light of behavioral findings regarding inconsistent individual decision-making, economists have begun to re-conceptualize the notion of welfare. One prominent account is the preference purification approach (PP), which attempts to reconstruct preferences from choice data based on a normative understanding of neoclassical rationality. Using Buchanan’s notion of creative choice, this paper criticizes PP’s epistemic, ontological, and psychological assumptions. It identifies PP as a static position that assumes the satisfaction of given ‘true preferences’ as the normative standard for welfare. However, following Buchanan, choice should be understood dynamically as a process whereby preferences constantly regenerate. Accordingly, the meaning of welfare emerges from an ongoing quest for individual self-constitution. If this holds true, then rationality axioms cannot serve as a priori normative standards. Instead, creative imagination and learning processes must remain central to any understanding of welfare in economics.     

Interest rate assumptions and predictive accuracy of central bank forecasts

The interest rate assumptions for macroeconomic forecasts differ among central banks. Common approaches are given by the assumptions that interest rates remain constant over the forecast horizon, follow a path as expected by market participants or follow a path as expected by the central bank itself. Theoretical papers such as Svensson (The instrument-rate projection under inflation targeting: the Norwegian example. Centre for European Policy Studies Working Paper (127), 2006) and Galí (J Monet Econ 58:537–550, 2011) suggest an accuracy ranking for these forecasts, from employing central bank expectations yielding the highest forecast accuracy to conditioning on constant interest rates yielding the lowest. Yet, when investigating the predictive accuracy of the Bank of England’s and the Banco Central do Brasil’s forecasts for interest rates, inflation and output growth, we hardly find any significant differences between forecasts based on the different interest rate paths. Our results suggest that the choice of the interest rate assumption appears to be of minor relevance empirically.     

Cross-cultural entrepreneurship research: Current status and framework for future studies

Although cross-cultural research in the field of entrepreneurship is still in its infancy as a research stream, it offers important inferences for both theory and practice. Some have criticized the relative immaturity of previous survey-based studies’ methodology. In order to address this flaw, we analyze existing survey-based studies in the field of cross-cultural entrepreneurship to identify research gaps in content and methodology and then derive the most appropriate analytical approach to fill the gaps for this type of research. Finally, we present a practical framework in which to conduct sound and prudent future studies, integrating the most appropriate analytical approach, general methodological insights, and the particularities of entrepreneurship research in a cross-cultural setting.

Making real options work for practitioners: a generic model for valuing R&D projects

We propose a generic valuation framework for the appraisal of R&D projects based on real option theory. The added value of this approach is the presentation of a model that was implemented in a manner that allows corporate decision makers to use real options in an intuitive and standardized way. The project valuation procedure is separated into three main phases: project modeling, data and input collection, and result generation and analysis. The project model represents the structure of the real world R&D project with its investments, expected results, and decisions that need to be taken conditionally on the outcomes of research activities. The project model is represented in the form of a decision tree, where different research results or taken decisions lead to new branches. In this way, every possible situation the project can pass through can be represented. Uncertainties are separated into market uncertainties (e.g., market prices) and project specific, private uncertainties (e.g. uncertainty of research results). For both uncertainties, event trees are constructed which are then combined and merged with the above mentioned decision tree in order to represent the value evolution of the R&D project under given decisions and uncertainties. For every possible state of the project the real option value is calculated. By creating multidimensional trees, a multitude of decision steps and various kinds of real options (e.g., continue, expansion, switch, abandonment) can be modeled. The calculation complexity for the decision trees is given. From the tree structure we can calculate the real option value of starting an R&D project, i.e., the value of undertaking the first investment and thus acquiring the subsequent decision opportunities given by the completion of the first research effort. Furthermore, the optimal exercise strategy is derived from the decision tree. The exercise strategy gives the manager the possibility to have an a priori overview of where an R&D project may lead to, which decisions need to be taken in which circumstances, and when the project needs to be stopped in order not to generate losses. In an in‐depth case study we use an illustrative R&D project to set up and discuss the three phases of project modeling in the real options framework: building the multidimensional decision tree, input generation, and calculation of the real option value as well as the optimal strategy for the R&D project.     

Mitarbeiterbindung als Umkehrung von Fluktuation: Implikationen der Fluktuationsdeterminantenforschung

With changes in demographics and shortage of skilled labor, the importance of employee retention is increasing particularly in times of economic revival. Employee retention can be seen as the result of employee turnover avoidance. This article provides an overview on the state of current research on determinants of employee turnover to transfer these insights to employee retention. Determinants of employee turnover are grouped into company-internal and company-external. Most important employee turnover determinants are job satisfaction, working climate, material aspects as well as demographic and personal characteristics of the employee. Even though employee retention can benefit from research on determinants of employee turnover, insights are limited since employee turnover focuses on why employeesleave whereas employee retention tries to understand why employeesstay within a company.