Forecasting development outcomes under alternative surplus labour assumptions

Economic forecasts are useful to policymakers both as aids to planning, and as baselines against which counterfactual scenarios can be compared. However, policy makers should be aware that assumptions relating to model structure can influence forecast results. We explore the sensitivity of forecasts to one aspect of model structure important in modelling developing economies: surplus agricultural labour. We outline a framework for modelling surplus agricultural labour that relies on average product remuneration. We embed this within a model of a developing economy (the Philippines) characterized by surplus agricultural labour. We compare the results of two forecasts that differ in their treatment of the agricultural labour market. In the first, the surplus labour theory is activated, establishing average product remuneration in agriculture. In the second, the surplus labour theory is not activated, creating a failure to recognize average product remuneration in agriculture. By comparing the two simulations, we show that failure to model the presence of average product remuneration, when it would be appropriate to do so, has an impact that would be material to economic planners, leading them to: under-estimate agricultural employment; over-estimate GDP growth; and, over-estimate important policy variables (like tax revenue) that are related to GDP growth.     

Matrix Representation of Conflict Resolution in Multiple-Decision-Maker Graph Models with Preference Uncertainty

Explicit matrix representations of solution concepts in a graph model of a multiple-decision-maker conflict with preference uncertainty are developed. In a graph model, the relative preferences of each DM over the available states are crucial in determining which states are stable according to any stability definition (solution concept). Unfortunately, it is often difficult to obtain accurate preference information in practical cases, so models that allow preference uncertainty can be very useful. In this work, stability definitions are extended to apply to graph models with this feature. The extension is easiest to implement using the matrix representation of a conflict model, which was developed to ease the coding of logically-defined stability definitions. Another benefit of matrix representation is that it facilitates modification and extension of the definitions.     

Asset Prices and the Financial Crisis of 2007–09: An Overview of Theories and Policies

The financial crisis of 2007–09 has led to a rethinking of the role of monetary and financial regulatory policy. It has also called into question the benefits of financial innovation and monetary policy that focuses solely on inflation and the output gap. This paper discusses financial instabilities in general, the recent financial crisis as well as the appropriate role of monetary and financial regulatory policy in dealing with asset bubbles. The paper concludes by evaluating appropriate policies to reduce the economic impact of future financial crises.     

Retail Trading and IPO Returns in the Aftermarket

Using trade size from the Trade and Quote (TAQ) data set as a proxy for individual versus institutional trading, this paper finds that the effects of trading of these two types of investors on initial public offering (IPO) returns on the first trading day depend on the hotness of the IPO. My regression results reveal that IPOs’ open-to-close returns are positively related to small trade participation, small trade purchases, and small trade order imbalance in the hot IPO sample, but not in the cold and neutral IPO samples. In addition, the aftermarket prices of cold and neutral IPOs are primarily driven by the trading of institutional investors, who are less likely to be driven by sentiment.     

Effect of Money Supply on Real Output and Price in China

Over the past 30 years, China has achieved remarkable long-term economic growth. Using quarterly data, we study the effects of money supply on real output and inflation in China between 1993 and 2008. To this end, we use money supply shocks afler filtering out the expected component of the money supply. Our findings provide evidence supporting the asymmetric effect of positive and negative money supply shocks on real output and inflation in China. That is, real GDP growth in China responds to negative money supply shocks but not positive money supply shocks. In addition, inflation responds to positive money supply shocks but not negative money supply shocks. We conclude that the People＇s Bank of China＇ s policy of steady monetary growth appears to be appropriate. Our study offers important policy implications for China.     

Eco-control: The influence of management control systems on environmental and economic performance

Eco-control is the application of financial and strategic control methods to environmental management. In this study, we investigate to what extent eco-control influences environmental and economic performance. Using survey-data from a sample of Canadian manufacturing firms, the results suggest that eco-control has no direct effect on economic performance. A mediating effect of environmental performance on the link between eco-control and economic performance is observed in different contexts. More specifically, eco-control indirectly influences economic performance in the context of (i) higher environmental exposure, (ii) higher public visibility, (iii) higher environmental concern, and (iv) larger size. This study contributes to the management accounting literature by providing insight into the roles and contributions of management accounting in the context of sustainable development.     

Three discount methods for valuing projects and the required return on equity

In this paper we discuss the required return on equity for a simple project with a finite life. To determine a project’s cost of equity, it is quite common to use Modigliani and Miller’s Proposition II (1963). However, if the assumptions of MM do not hold, Proposition II will lead to wrong required returns and project values. This paper gives an example of how the cost of equity should be determined in order to obtain correct valuations. The methods we apply are the Adjusted Present Value method, the Cash Flow to Equity method and the WACC method.     

Chinese children’s attitudes towards television advertising: truthfulness and liking

This benchmarking study examines Chinese children.s perceived truthfulness of and liking for television advertising in three Chinese cities with different developmental levels of advertising. An in-person survey of 1758 children (ages 6 to 14) was conducted between December 2001 and March 2002 using a structured questionnaire. Results indicate that a majority of children perceive half of the television commercials to be true, although this varies by grade and geography. Children in Beijing perceived television commercials to be more trustworthy than did children in Nanjing and Chengdu. The percentage of children who perceive all commercials to be true declines consistently with grade in all three cities. There is a high proportion of first graders who perceive all commercials to be untrue. The basis for judgement varies predominantly by grade. Children in higher grades depend more on brand and user experience while children in lower grades rely mainly on authority (i.e. parents or teachers). A high proportion of first graders hold both a strong liking and disliking for commercials. These strong feelings towards advertising decreased with grade, being replaced by a marked increase in neutral or indifferent feelings. Gender and level of television viewing do not show a consistent impact on perceived truthfulness and liking for commercials. Perceived truthfulness of television advertising is related positively with liking for commercials.