Seasonality and the valuation of commodity options

Price movements in many commodity markets exhibit significant seasonal patterns. However, given an observed futures price, a deterministic seasonal component at the price level is not relevant for the pricing of commodity options. In contrast, this is not true for the seasonal pattern observed in the volatility of the commodity price. Analyzing an extensive sample of soybean, corn, heating oil and natural gas options, we find that seasonality in volatility is an important aspect to consider when valuing these contracts. The inclusion of an appropriate seasonality adjustment significantly reduces pricing errors in these markets and yields more improvement in valuation accuracy than increasing the number of stochastic factors.     

Risk Sharing in Labor Markets

Empirical work in labor economics has focused on rent sharingas an explanation for the observed correlation between wagesand profitability. The alternative explanation of risk sharingbetween workers and employers has not been tested. Using a uniquepanel data set for four African countries, we find strong evidenceof risk sharing. Workers in effect offer insurance to employers:when firms are hit by temporary shocks, the effect on profitsis cushioned by risk sharing with workers. Rent sharing is asymptom of an inefficient labor market. Risk sharing, by contrast,can be seen as an efficient response to missing markets. Ourevidence suggests that risk sharing accounts for a substantialpart of the observed effect of shocks on wages.     

Positive business: doing good and doing well

This article investigates the meaning of doing good and doing well in positive business. It examines the relationship between the two expressions and discusses their relevance, shedding new light on the significance of ‘positive’ in positive business and positive organizational scholarship (POS). Thus, this article illuminates the ultimate end of positive states and practices. ‘Positive’ primarily represents values and assumptions. These lead to the creation of beneficial situations and marked improvements, which put individuals and organizations on an upward trajectory toward achieving excellent functioning, assuring profitability in addition to sustainability and social well-being. Doing well, with reference to economic performance and profits, is partly constitutive of doing good. This presents a new approach regarding the role of economic outcomes in positive business and POS. It means that financial criteria do not have priority. Profits are considered vital and necessary, but the final ‘raison d'être’ of positive states and practices is the overall well-being of the stakeholders.     

The formation of risk sharing networks

This paper examines the formation of risk sharing networks in the rural Philippines. We find that geographic proximity–possibly correlated with kinship–is a major determinant of mutual insurance links among villagers. Age and wealth differences also play an important role. In contrast, income correlation and differences in occupation are not determinants of network links. Reported network links have a strong effect on subsequent gifts and loans. Gifts between network partners are found to respond to shocks and to differences in health status. From this we conclude that intra-village mutual insurance links are largely determined by social and geographical proximity and are only weakly the result of purposeful diversification of income risk. The paper also makes a methodological contribution to the estimation of dyadic models.     

Duration of new firms: The role of startup financial conditions,industry and aggregate factors

This paper documents the relative importance of firm, industry and aggregate factors on the post-entry performance of new firms. This study utilizes a unique administrative dataset, T2LEAP, which contains employment and balance sheet information for all incorporated Canadian firms. The data allow us to include financial variables such as the debt-to-asset ratio (leverage) and document their impact on firm survival. We perform duration analysis on all the entrant manufacturing firms during the period 1985–1996. In addition to leverage, we find that: firm characteristics such as size and labour productivity; industry conditions, such as the real exchange rate, the difference in the US–Canada tariff rates, entry penetration, and the capital–labour ratio; and aggregate conditions in terms of the yield gap also play a role in the survival prospects of new firms.     

The impact of brand selection on price competition - a double-edged sword

Brand selection - the number of alternative brands of a particular product - is a double-edged sword in that on the one hand it increases rivalry and so stimulates price competition but on the other hand it causes consumers to be poorly informed and thus vulnerable to exploitation and so dampens price competition. This phenomenon is demonstrated analytically and empirically, with analytical work based on Hotelling's unit market line. Using price dispersion as a measure of the state of price competition, it is shown that a widening in price dispersion, that is, a lessening of price competition, arises from an increase in brand selection. Any increase in the number of alternative brands on offer (brand selection) causes an increase in ‘DIF-ness’ (Distortion in Information Function) which in turn causes an increase in price dispersion (a lessening of price competition). The phenomenon is demonstrated empirically through a small survey of household beverages.