Structural Change in Advanced Nations: A New Set of Stylised Facts*

We provide new evidence on patterns of structural change in advanced economies, reconsidering the stylised facts put forward by Kaldor (1963) , Kuznets (1971) , and Maddison (1980) . Since 1980, the services sector has overwhelmingly predominated in the economic activity of the European Union, Japan, and the US, but there is substantial heterogeneity among services. Personal, finance, and business services have low productivity growth and increasing shares in employment and GDP. By contrast, shares of distribution services are constant, and productivity growth is rapid. We find that the labour share in value‐added is declining, while the use of ICT capital and skilled labour is increasing in all sectors and regions.     

Signing trades and an evaluation of the Lee–Ready algorithm

We use techniques developed to analyze the Supply Curve in liquidity models in order to analyze the accuracy of the Lee and Ready algorithm, both for highly liquid and relatively liquid stocks. Through the use of order book data combined with tick data, we are actually (somewhat tediously) able to tell whether or not a given trade is buyer or seller initiated. For those trades where such knowledge is certain, the accuracy of the Lee and Ready algorithm is not as accurate as has been assumed previously. We can essentially prove that the Lee and Ready algorithm is always at least 55% accurate, and is around 61% accurate for highly liquid stocks (i.e., the top 50 of the S&P 100).     

Asset allocation over the life cycle: How much do taxes matter?

We study the welfare effect of tax-optimizing portfolio decisions in a life cycle model with unspanned labor income and realization-based capital gain taxation. For realistic parameterizations of our model, certainty equivalent welfare gains from fully tax-optimized portfolio decisions are less than 2% of present financial wealth and lifetime income compared to a heuristic portfolio policy ignoring the taxation of profits (capital gains, interest and dividend payments). Compared to a heuristic portfolio policy that only ignores the realization-based feature of capital gain taxation and instead assumes mark-to-market taxation, these gains are less than 0.5%. That is, our work provides a justification for ignoring taxes in life cycle portfolio choice problems – a wide-spread assumption in that literature. However, if capital gains are forgiven at death (as in the U.S.), investors with strong bequest motives face substantial welfare costs when not tax-optimizing their portfolio decisions towards the end of the life cycle.     

Purchasing Power Parities for Industry Comparisons Using Weighted Elteto–Koves–Szulc (EKS) Methods

This study has three main objectives. First, it develops a generalization of the commonly used EKS method to multilateral price comparisons. It is shown that the EKS system can be generalized so that weights can be attached to each of the link comparisons used in the EKS computations. These weights can account for differing levels of reliability of the underlying binary comparisons. Second, various reliability measures and corresponding weighting schemes are presented and their merits discussed. Finally, these new methods are applied to an international data set of manufacturing prices from the ICOP project. Although theoretically superior, it appears that the empirical impact of the weighted EKS method is generally small compared to the unweighted EKS. It is also found that this impact is larger when it is applied at lower levels of aggregation. Finally, the importance of using sector specific PPPs in assessing relative levels of manufacturing productivity is indicated.     

Soil and Moisture Management in Mali: A Case Study Analysis for West Africa

In order for farmers to accept improved soil and water management practices, new technologies must be appropriate to the specific site conditions found in the farm setting and be consistent with farmers' objectives and available resources. A whole-farm modeling analysis of this problem is described. Preliminary estimates of the benefits of increased soil moisture conservation for representative low-resource farmers in Mali are presented. If farmers could improve rainfall infiltration from currently low rates of about 40% up to 60%, and use small amounts of chemical fertilizers, disposable income could increase two to four times depending on rainfall. Income could be increased another 50% if the infiltration rate was raised to 80%. Food grain production could increase 60 to 90% with improved moisture conservation and fertilizer use.     

The influence of executive cognition on competitive dynamics

Prior competitive dynamics research has drawn on theories of information processing to model the subjective antecedents of executives' retaliation choices. This prior work has made great progress in developing our understanding of the retaliation choices most firms will make to a given type of attack. What the information processing perspective has not been able to do is explain firm‐specific behavior to predict which competitive moves individual firms will challenge, or explain why individual firms differ in the types of actions that they are most likely to challenge. The goal of this paper is to sharpen the theoretical and empirical focus on predicting firm‐level retaliation proclivities. We leverage managerial cognition research to examine the relationship between firm‐level differences in the cognitive frameworks that executives possess, and firm‐level differences in whether and how quickly firms challenge a market move. Results from a longitudinal study of the airline industry suggest that the addition of a cognitive perspective provides important insights into competitive retaliation. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Optimal portfolio choice with wash sale constraints

We analytically solve the portfolio choice problem in the presence of wash sale constraints in a two-period model with one risky asset. Our results show that wash sale constraints can heavily affect portfolio choice of investors with unrealized losses. The trading behavior of such investors is to a large extent driven by the desire to realize those losses, either immediately by sharply decreasing the holding of assets carrying unrealized losses, or indirectly by increasing such holdings in order to prepare for a decrease in a future period to earn the tax rebate payment. Our findings are robust to increasing the number of trading dates and introducing a second risky asset and a correlation structure.     

Decentralised bargaining of working time in the German automotive industry

The article addresses the question whether or not the trend towards the decentralisation of collective bargaining on working time in Germany entails a loss in the binding power of industry‐level agreements. To this end, both working‐time agreements and practices are examined at the firm or establishment level in the automotive industry. Additionally, the article examines the extent to which workplace micro‐level changes are reflected in official statistics. The findings indicate that unions and works councils have taken on new roles preventing a widespread erosion of collective regulations.     

Credit Constraints in Manufacturing Enterprises in Africa

We investigate the question of whether firms in Africa's manufacturingsector are credit constrained. The fact that few firms obtaincredit is not sufficient to prove constraints, since certainfirms may not have a demand for credit while others may be refusedcredit as part of profit maximising behaviour by banks. To investigatethis question, we use direct evidence on whether firms had ademand of credit and whether their demand was satisfied in theformal credit market, based on panel data on firms in the manufacturingsector from six African countries. Of those firms with a demandfor credit, only a quarter obtained a formal sector loan. Ouranalysis suggests that while banks allocate credit on the basisof expected profits, micro or small firms are much less likelyto get a loan than large firms. We also find that outstandingdebt is positively related with obtaining further lending. Therole of outstanding debt is likely to be a reflection of inefficiencyin credit markets, while the fact that size matters is consistentwith a bias as well, although we cannot totally exclude thatthey reflect transactions costs on the part of banks. We presentan analysis showing how much more profitable small firms mustbe to obtain a loan than large firms.