A multivariate stochastic volatility model with applications in the foreign exchange market

The main objective of this paper is to study the behavior of a daily calibration of a multivariate stochastic volatility model, namely the principal component stochastic volatility (PCSV) model, to market data of plain vanilla options on foreign exchange rates. To this end, a general setting describing a foreign exchange market is introduced. Two adequate models—PCSV and a simpler multivariate Heston model—are adjusted to suit the foreign exchange setting. For both models, characteristic functions are found which allow for an almost instantaneous calculation of option prices using Fourier techniques. After presenting the general calibration procedure, both the multivariate Heston and the PCSV models are calibrated to a time series of option data on three exchange rates—USD-SEK, EUR-SEK, and EUR-USD—spanning more than 11 years. Finally, the benefits of the PCSV model which we find to be superior to the multivariate extension of the Heston model in replicating the dynamics of these options are highlighted.     

Short-run forecasting of the euro-dollar exchange rate with economic fundamentals

We propose a fundamentals-based econometric model for the weekly changes in the euro-dollar rate with the distinctive feature of mixing economic variables quoted at different frequencies. The model obtains good in-sample fit and, more importantly, encouraging out-of-sample forecasting results at horizons ranging from one-week to one month. Specifically, we obtain statistically significant improvements upon the hard-to-beat random-walk model using traditional statistical measures of forecasting error at all horizons. Moreover, our model obtains a great improvement when we use the direction of change metric, which has more economic relevance than other loss measures. With this measure, our model performs much better at all forecasting horizons than a naive model that predicts the exchange rate as an equal chance to go up or down, with statistically significant improvements.     

Managerial form,ownership and efficiency: a case-study of Argentine agriculture

In agriculture, studies dealing with the separation of ownership from control have focused on sharecropping, paying little attention to the impact of management and ownership on efficiency. Using Argentine data, this study tests the hypothesis that efficiency is a function of type of management, concentration of ownership, and mechanisms for monitoring managers. Results show that management, ownership and monitoring have a greater impact on marketing efficiency than either on technical or cost efficiency.     

Organization of work in the company and family rights of the employees

The duty to respect, protect and help the family rights is related very closely with the organization of work in the firm. This paper summarizes and illustrates, using mini-case studies, the relationship between the organization of work in companies and the family rights and duties of employees.Domènec Melé is the Director of Business Ethics Dept. at IESE (the Business School of the University of Navarra in Barcelona, Spain). He has a Ph.D. in Industrial Engineering from Polytechnic University of Catalonia, Spain and a Ph.D. in Moral Theology from the University of Navarra, Spain.Before, he has been professor at the Polytechinc University in Valencia, Spain. His published works consist of several articles on engineering topics and more recently on Business Ethics and Social Teaching of the Church on economics and business.     

Selecting explanatory factors of voting decisions by means of fsQCA and ANN

This investigation applies fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) and an artificial neural networks method (ANN) with the aim of addressing the determinants of votes regarding managerial proposals presented in corporate meetings. The data refer to companies in the United States banking industry and they cover the period from 2003 to 2013. The results show that the variables that contribute to explain the voting support have changed over time. Thus, during the 2003–2006 sub-period the number of funds voting appears as the most clearly outstanding variable. On the contrary, in the 2007–2009 sub-period there is a heterogeneous set of explanatory features that includes the total volume of assets, the leverage ratio and the return on assets ratio, among others, as the most remarkable factors. Finally, in the 2010–2013 sub-period, there are no specific features or combinations that contribute to voting support, indicating that the explanatory factors are yet to be consolidated after the financial downturn.     

Alimony Rights and Intrahousehold Allocation of Resources: Evidence from Brazil

Can family policy affect well-being of individuals without altering the resources available to their families? This article examines the extension of alimony rights and obligations to cohabiting couples in Brazil. For women in intact relationships, alimony rights upon dissolution should improve outside options, strengthening their negotiating positions, and increasing their influence over intrahousehold allocation of resources. Robust econometric evidence indicates that more decision power in the hands of women impacts hours worked by female adults and investments in the education of children. This suggests that family policy and models of family decision making should take intrahousehold heterogeneity of preferences into account.     

A mixture of Gaussians approach to mathematical portfolio oversight: the EF3M algorithm

An analogue can be made between: (a) the slow pace at which species adapt to an environment, which often results in the emergence of a new distinct species out of a once homogeneous genetic pool and (b) the slow changes that take place over time within a fund, mutating its investment style. A fund’s track record provides a sort of genetic marker, which we can use to identify mutations. This has motivated our use of a biometric procedure to detect the emergence of a new investment style within a fund’s track record. In doing so, we answer the question: What is the probability that a particular PM’s performance is departing from the reference distribution used to allocate her capital? The EF3M algorithm, inspired by evolutionary biology, may help detect early stages of an evolutionary divergence in an investment style and trigger a decision to review a fund’s capital allocation.     

Efficiently pricing double barrier derivatives in stochastic volatility models

Imposing a symmetry condition on returns, Carr and Lee (Math Financ 19(4):523–560, 2009) show that (double) barrier derivatives can be replicated by a portfolio of European options and can thus be priced using fast Fourier techniques (FFT). We show that prices of barrier derivatives in stochastic volatility models can alternatively be represented by rapidly converging series, putting forward an idea by Hieber and Scherer (Stat Probab Lett 82(1):165–172, 2012). This representation turns out to be faster and more accurate than FFT. Numerical examples and a toolbox of a large variety of stochastic volatility models illustrate the practical relevance of the results.