Cross-impact analysis: Extended KSIM

The authors present an extension of Kane's cross-impact simulation model (ksim) that allows the inclusion of events and trends, and discuss the basic issues of forecasting and compatibility of forecasts.     

Order of entry,trial diffusion,and elasticity dynamics: An empirical case

This paper considers the diffusion process of new brands in order to estimate marketing mix elasticities and order-of-entry effects. Using an empirical case, we test hypotheses regarding the role of order of entry on brand trial processes within a new category. Consistent with research hypotheses, the results demonstrate that the diffusion rate of a brand's trials and its pricing and advertising elasticities vary systematically as a function of competitive entry. Competitive influences (which are negative) increase as order of entry is delayed. Short-term price elasticities are found to be an inverted U relationship with the order of entry, whereby early followers have the highest elasticities, as compared to the pioneer and to later followers. Advertising elasticities decline as the number of competitors increases.     

Toward a product-based typology for nature-based tourism: a conceptual framework

The traditional view of nature-based tourists as a relatively homogeneous group has been questioned, and several scholars have suggested various segmentation typologies. This paper discusses market and industry changes and notes key trends, as Fordist tourist products have been replaced by post-Fordist and neo-Fordist products, with both McDonaldization and McDisneyization developments. A range of visitor-based typologies are reviewed, and the conflict between capturing the diversity of today's nature-based tourists while offering management bodies simple tools to segment visitors, identify core groups and improve their marketing is noted. In an attempt to overcome this conflict, the paper presents a conceptual framework which focuses on nature-based tourism products instead of tourist types, therefore incorporating aspects of both the demand and supply sides of the nature-based tourism industry market. A two-dimensional matrix is suggested, linking four basic travel motivations (nature conservation, nature experience, sports/adventure and hedonistic) to four different types of tourist products (independent, à la carte, customized and standardized), giving a total typology of 16 different types. The matrix should help protected area managers to better understand tourist needs, suggest management measures and help to create more sustainable forms of tourism. Empirical testing is suggested as a next step.     

Academic foundations for hospitality and tourism research: A reexamination of citations

A 1999 study looking at the research relationships within and between the disciplines of hospitality and tourism is revisited. When compared to the 1999 study, the current study reveals that there is more within-discipline citing, suggesting that both the hospitality and tourism academic areas are maturing, and not relying as heavily on other disciplines. Further analysis of the citations outside hospitality is done to elicit a more in-depth picture of where hospitality and tourism citations are coming from. Implications are discussed.     

Takeover bids, unconditional offer price and investor protection

In this paper, we develop a contingent claim analysis on shareholders' right to sell unconditionally their shares at the acquisition bid price during a takeover bid procedure. Compared with a situation without any guarantee, this regulation brings about wealth transfer towards outside shareholders. Why, in an apparently irrational way, do outside shareholders, who may benefit from a price guarantee, not systematically sell their shares? That question emphasizes the outside shareholders' behavior. Using a real option valuation model to evaluate the price guarantee opportunity, we show that an equal treatment rule between controlling and outside shareholders may lead outside shareholders to sell their shares.