对企业价值链数字化管理的探讨

新的竞争环境催生价值链管理一新的管理模式,而价值链管理离不开信息技术的支持。本文探讨了实施价值链数字化管理的意义及实施方案,阐明了企业的实施策略。     

Optimal disinflationary paths

This paper characterizes optimal monetary policy in the context of a general equilibrium model with optimizing agents and staggered price setting. Starting from a steady state with positive inflation, a rapid disinflation is desirable when announcements of future monetary policy are fully credible. Disinflationary policy yields substantial losses in output and employment when the monetary authority lacks credibility; nevertheless, the benefits of disinflation still exceed the costs. Disinflation often fails to be welfare-improving, however, when lost seignorage revenues must be replaced using other distortionary taxes.     

“People First—Always”: Euphemism and Rhetoric as Troublesome Influences on Organizational Sense-Making—A Downsizing Case Study

The purpose of this paper is to examine the role of euphemism and rhetoric in influencing organizational members' constructions of reality and sense-making abilities. The discussion opens with a return to the role of the sociology of knowledge, before exploring the purpose and outcomes of euphemism and rhetoric. Heideggerian phenomenology was used to collect this particularly poignant story from Adrian (a pseudonym), who was made redundant from his workplace after heart bypass surgery. Weick's theoretical exposition of sense-making in organizations is used to examine Adrian's story, with the purpose of demonstrating that sense-making is highly influenced by the use of rhetoric and euphemism (K. E. Weick, 1995, Sense-making in Organizations. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage). When the truth finally comes out, the outcome is seen to be serious—even life threatening.     

Forecasting economic time series using flexible versus fixed specification and linear versus nonlinear econometric models

Nine macroeconomic variables are forecast in a real-time scenario using a variety of flexible specification, fixed specification, linear, and nonlinear econometric models. All models are allowed to evolve through time, and our analysis focuses on model selection and performance. In the context of real-time forecasts, flexible specification models (including linear autoregressive models with exogenous variables and nonlinear artificial neural networks) appear to offer a useful and viable alternative to less flexible fixed specification linear models for a subset of the economic variables which we examine, particularly at forecast horizons greater than 1-step ahead. We speculate that one reason for this result is that the economy is evolving (rather slowly) over time. This feature cannot easily be captured by fixed specification linear models, however, and manifests itself in the form of evolving coefficient estimates. We also provide additional evidence supporting the claim that models which ‘win’ based on one model selection criterion (say a squared error measure) do not necessarily win when an alternative selection criterion is used (say a confusion rate measure), thus highlighting the importance of the particular cost function which is used by forecasters and ‘end-users’ to evaluate their models. A wide variety of different model selection criteria and statistical tests are used to illustrate our findings.     

An alternative employee rights paradigm: Labor process theory

A dialectical relationship exists between the capitalist desire for accumulation of wealth and profits, and the rights of employees. Labor process theory exposes facets of the fundamental incongruity between the interests of employers and workers in a capitalist political economy. An analysis of employee rights through the labor process framework facilitates the potential for human emancipation by illuminating the ideological, political, and economic sources of domination and repression that are embedded in the capitalist system. In this article, three core elements of labor process theory—the social relations of production, the managerial control imperative, and the restructuring of work—are used to highlight ways in which organizations maintain their hegemonic position. This exposé offers the basis for an alternative paradigmatic view of the employment relationship and informs our thinking of how employee rights are impacted, and often tempered, in work organizations. Portions of this article were presented by both authors at the 12th Annual International Labour Process Conference March, 1994 in Birmingham, England.     

Developing a tutoring module for presentation of computerized patient management problems

The simulation problem is one of the most commonly used formats in computer-assisted instruction (CAI). In medical education, a patient simulation problem is known as a patient management problem (PMP). A number of computerized PMP systems are currently available. However, to date, there is no record of PMP systems having been developed using artificial intelligence. This is noteworthy since artificial intelligence techniques could help in the generation of more effective and intelligent instructional systems.

This paper analyzes and evaluates existing instructional simulation software in clinical medicine in terms of effective educational design attributes. Components of effective PMP systems thus identified are incorporated into a computerized instructional system which uses artificial intelligence techniques for teaching problem-solving and diagnostic skills to undergraduate medical students.     

Residential Hedonic Models: A Rational Expectations Approach to Age Effects

This paper develops a rational expectations framework for interpreting the coefficient on age in a standard hedonic model. The model demonstrates that there are two components to the age coefficient: a pure cross-sectional depreciation component and a demand-side component that changes over time. We also show that a constant quality price index with age constant can be estimated by using any repeat sales database that contains the year of construction (or property age). When Fairfax County data are fitted to the model, the time series of age coefficients is non-stationary: they change from negative in the early 1980s to positive in the late 1980s; we infer that the demand-side component dominated in the latter period.