Valuation of controlling shares in closely held banks

This paper investigated factors that affect the valuation of controlling shares of closely held bank stocks. With regard to traditional financial factors, earnings and growth variables proved to be important. In addition, the prior ownership position of the buyer was important in pricing the stock. Other non-traditional valuation factors were investigated with only limited success. The statistical work was enhanced by a robust regression technique.     

Public production and shadow pricing in a model of disequilibrium in labour and capital markets

This paper develops second-best rules for public investment and employment in various regimes of disequilibrium on the capital and the labour markets. The model used is very simple so as to imply rules which can easily be interpreted and contrasted with the current literature on the subject. Another issue considered is that of possible changes of regimes within a process of welfare improvement involving adjustments in the public production plan; it is dealt with through a numerical example which points out that such changes can indeed occur.     

Schooling processes and educational outcomes in France

Quality & Quantity -     

The return of Malthus?: The global demographic future,2000–2050

The Western world, with its demographic explosion completed and increasing living standards, should not forget the warnings of Malthus. By 2001, at expected growth rates, the world is on track for 8000 million population by 2023, increasing the chance of global conflict, hardship and disorganization. A key issue for the developing world is that of government control v individual choice and whether, following the example of the socialist societies, feelings of national and community interest will be encouraged in attempts to reduce fertility levels.     

Natural hazards and deposit behavior at financial institutions: A note

There have been few studies of the effect of natural disasters upon either individual economic units or financial institutions. The present paper is concerned with the question of the evidence as to the deposit experience of financial institutions following a sizeable natural disaster. The deposit data we use consist of observations from seven individual savings and loan associations and eight commercial banks in four sizeable 1970s U.S. natural disasters. Basically, there is no evidence of a run. In most cases, there is a significant increase in deposits.     

On `indirect' trade-related R&D spillovers

An influential literature argues that trade promotes knowledge flows and technology transmission between trading partners. This literature focuses on `direct' research and development (R&D) spillovers which are related to the levels of R&D produced by the trading partners. In this paper, we argue that `indirect' trade-related R&D spillovers also take place between countries, even if they do not trade with each other. These `indirect' spillovers are associated with available rather than with produced levels of R&D. Our empirical results suggest that these `indirect' trade-related spillovers are at least as important as the `direct' ones, and strengthen the view that trade does matter for the international transmission of R&D. They also suggest that, due to the existence of these `indirect' effects, bilateral trade patterns are relatively less important determinants of the level of foreign R&D spillovers acquired through trade.     

The United States International Air Route Award Process: Shareholder Wealth Effects and Policy Implications

This study empirically investigates the market pricing dynamics of United States airline stocks in response to United States government allocations of exclusive, zero-priced international air route awards from the 1963 to 1993 time period. A $900 filing fee required by the Department of Transportation represents the only explicit monetary cost associated with the award of an international air route. This low fee suggests that the current award system subsidizes United States airlines by transferring valuable public property rights to private ownership and control for paltry explicit fees. The performed dollar abnormal tests suggest that the 82 analyzed international air routes have enriched airline shareholders by about $3.5 billion.     

Forecasting the Government Bond Term Structure in Australia

In this paper, we evaluate the performance of the dynamic Nielsen and Siegel interest rate model in forecasting Australian government bond yields. We compare a two‐stage OLS estimation procedure to a more powerful and robust state‐space framework estimated via a Kalman filter. We show that the one‐step approach generates smaller forecast errors than the two‐step procedure or a benchmark random walk model when forecasting the Australian government term structure across various horizons.