On the Welfare Cost of Economic Fluctuations in Developing Countries*

Macroeconomic fluctuations are much stronger in developing countries than in the United States. Yet, while a large literature debates the welfare cost of economic fluctuations in the United States, it remains an open question how large that cost is in developing countries. Using several models, we provide such a measure. We find that the welfare cost of consumption volatility per se is far from trivial and averages a substantial multiple of the corresponding U.S. estimate. Moreover, in many poor countries, the welfare gain from eliminating volatility may in fact exceed the welfare gain from an additional percentage point of growth forever.     

Improving lattice schemes through bias reduction

Lattice schemes for option pricing, such as tree or grid/partial differential equation (p.d.e.) methods, are usually designed as a discrete version of an underlying continuous model of stock prices. The parameters of such schemes are chosen so that the discrete version “best” matches the continuous one. Only in the limit does the lattice option price model converge to the continuous one. Otherwise, a discretization bias remains. A simple modification of lattice schemes which reduces the discretization bias is proposed. The modification can, in theory, be applied to any lattice scheme. The main idea is to adjust the lattice parameters in such a way that the option price bias, not the stock price bias, is minimized. European options are used, for which the option price bias can be evaluated precisely, as a template to modify and improve American option methods. A numerical study is provided. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 26:733–757, 2006     

An example of multiple minima in a Cochrane-Orcutt procedure with multiple autocorrelation

We provide an example, based on an equation of the Canadian-US exchange rate, of multiple minima in a generalized Cochrane-Orcutt procedure. Our experiments suggest the need for search procedures in order to correctly identify autocorrelation structures.     

A computer assisted school bus routing strategy: A case study

The effect of routing changes on the efficiency of suburban-rural pupil transportation systems is demonstrated in a case study of a suburban-rural county in Virginia. A computer assisted routing method was used that included manual route design and computer aided route evaluation. Various policy options affecting routing were identified and new routes were developed. The recommended routes represented a 17% reduction in the number of routes required, a 19% reduction in the number of buses required, and a 57% reduction in the total number of vacant seats. While the computer assisted method used produced a more efficient routing structure, the process of manual route design was still slow and tedious. Techniques such as interactive computer graphics appear to be suited to the school bus routing problem and their use should be explored.     

Saving under uncertainty: A bivariate non-expected utility approach

We adopt the multivariate non-expected utility approach proposed by Yaari [1986] to provide a characterization of the comparative statics effects of greater risk aversion and of mean-preserving increases in risk on saving and borrowing in the presence of income and interest rate risk.We show that in Yaari's model, it is possible to extend the applicability of the Diamond and Stiglitz [1974] and Kihlstrom and Mirman [1974] (DSKM) single-crossing property to establish a relationship between greater risk aversion and saving (or borrowing) on the basis of the individual's ordinal preferences as long as the two risks are independent. We also demonstrate that the comparative statics effects of a joint mean-preserving increase in random income and interest rate on saving and borrowing can be determined by an extension of the DSKM single-crossing property.     

Foreign assignment for female German managers

Foreign assignments are considered as an important instrument of management development from German companies. Professional expertise in foreign markets and cultures is becoming an increasingly important factor in advancement. It is significant that in the past only male managers have been given the chance for a foreign assignment. Consequently female German managers very seldomly have international working experience. An empirical research study in 13 German multinational companies investigated the role of German women as expatriate managers from the perspectives of personnel managers. © 1992 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

TRUCKING DEREGULATION AND MOTOR-CARRIER PERFORMANCE: THE SHAREHOLDERS' PERSPECTIVE

This paper utilizes an event study methodology to investigate the effects of deregulation on carriers' shareholders. This methodology compares the expected returns during a time period surrounding a particular event with actual returns during the same time period. These differences are referred to as prediction errors. The study investigates the prediction errors associated with individual trucking firms, as well as those associated with groups composed of regional carriers, national carriers, and the aggregate sample of firms used in the study. The results suggest that the passage of the Motor Carrier Reform Act on July 1, 1980, halted a serious 18-month downward trend in the aggregate sample's cumulative prediction error. Nearly all firms showed significant gains in the 18 months subsequent to deregulation. Using two control groups, the authors show that a large portion of this gain from the industry sample can be explained by lower and more stable fuel prices and a sharp upturn in the economy. The results also indicate that due to deregulation, the large regional trucking firms were able to outperform the small regional firms and the national firms in the more favorable economic environment present after deregulation.     

IS THERE A FRENCH SCHOOL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS?

The particular history of French agriculture and the general intellectual environment in France have given the agricultural economics profession in that country a specific character which, in spite of many internal controversies, is illustrated by common beliefs about agriculture and common attitudes regarding research approaches contrasting with that of the profession in many other countries, including Britain. After the second world war, the development of agricultural economics was marked by the demise of ‘ruralism’, an ideology of agrarian fundamentalism, and its replacement by ‘productivism’, an ideology emphasizing economic growth and based on a simplified neo-classical paradigm. The surge of Marxism and dissatisfaction with the results of the policies advocated by the productivists led to a questioning of that paradigm. As a result, major hypotheses, theoretical issues, and concepts too often taken for granted in France and elsewhere should be re-examined.