German dominance in the EMS

The paper assesses the merit of the view according to which the Bundesbank dominates monetary policy-making in the European Monetary System. Our tests give a strong rejection of German dominance and suggest, instead, that monetary policymaking in the EMS is interactive. There is evidence that the Bundesbank pursues her own policy goals in the longer run. But German independence does not imply German dominance.     

Management of the political imperative in international business

In this paper we develop a framework for analyzing the political imperative. We argue that the effects of the political imperative on the firm will be a function of industry structure. Strategies that management employs in coping with the political imperative are a function of its impact on the firm and the firm's strategic predisposition. We also speculate on why strategic predisposition may lead firms to employ strategies that are not responsive to the demands of the political imperative.     

Once NEET,always NEET? A synthetic panel approach to analyze the Moroccan labor market

In many regions of the world, the persistent, and growing, proportion of young people who are currently Not in Employment, Education or Training—a group increasingly referred to as NEET—is of global concern. This is no less true of Morocco: about 30% of the Moroccan population between age 15 and 24 are currently NEET. Drawing from various rounds of Moroccan Labor Force Surveys, this paper contributes to understanding the complex dynamics of labor markets in developing countries. First, it identifies the socioeconomic determinants of Morocco's NEETs. Second, employing a synthetic panel (SP) methodology in the context of labor market analysis, the paper describes how the condition of NEETs changes over time. One striking, and worrisome, pattern that emerges from the 2010 SP data is that, even after 8 years, a majority of the NEETs remained outside either the labor market or education, with very little chance of moving out of their situation. Their chronic stagnancy confirms the powerful effect that initial conditions have on determining young people's future outcomes. It also highlights the absence of corrective mechanisms and policy interventions within the Moroccan political economy landscape that could help to change NEETs' outcomes along the line.     

International Trade, OECD Membership, and Religion

Transaction costs in trade gravity equation are proxied by the distance that separates two trading partners, under the assumption that the distance elasticity is the same across all trading partners. We show that distance elasticity, however, critically depends on whether trading partners are industrial countries (i.e., members of the OECD) or share same religion. These heterogeneities are both statistically and economically significant. For instance, expected trade flows are the largest when an OECD member trades with a non-member and both are non-religious. Expected trade flows fall as much as by 62.9% between two non-religious, non-OECD members. Expected bilateral trade drops by 48.1% when both countries in the pair are OECD members while one is Christian and the other is Islamic. Both religion and OECD membership significantly affect the typical transaction costs implied by the gravity equation. JEL Classification Number: F13     

Welfare migration in Europe

The enlargement of the European Union has increased concerns about the role of generous welfare transfers in attracting migrants. This paper explores the issue of welfare migration across the countries of the pre-enlargement European Union and finds a significant but small effect of the generosity of welfare on migration decisions. This effect, however, is still large enough to distort the distribution of migration flows and, possibly, offset the potential benefits of migration as an inflow of mobile labour into countries with traditionally immobile native workers.     

Unemployment duration and the interactions between unemployment insurance and social assistance

Existing studies suggest that reforms that reduce the generosity of the unemployment benefits should lower unemployment. Despite the large number of such reforms implemented in Europe in the past decades, evidence from various data sources shows very little correlation with the evolution of unemployment. This paper suggests that the scant success of these labour market reforms can be explained by the interactions between unemployment insurance and other social assistance programmes. Evidence from the European Community Household Panel shows that recipients of unemployment insurance who are also eligible for other welfare schemes are indeed less sensitive to changes in the level and the duration of their benefits.     

Considerazioni generali sull’impostazione Bayesiana di problemi non parametrici. Le medie associative nel contesto del processo aleatorio di Dirichlet parte II

Nei problemi statistici non parametrici la conoscenza della distribuzione iniziale e finale di una generica media associativa si manifesta particolarmente utile. Se la classe delle possibili funzioni di ripartizione scelte per descrivere un fenomeno è retta da un processo di Dirichlet nel senso precisato in D. M. Cifarelli — E. Regazzini (1979), è possibile pervenire ad una rappresentazione esplicita della distribuzione iniziale e ad una relazione ricorrente per il calcolo della distribuzione finale di una generica media associativa, secondo quanto si dimostra in questo lavoro. Lavoro eseguito nell’ambito G.N..F.A. del C.N.R.. A D.M. Cifarelli sono dovuti: i Lemmi 1, 4, i Teoremi 1, 2 ed il numero 3. Ad E. Regazzini sono dovuti: i Lemmi 2, 3, 7, il Teorema 3, il numero 2.3 e le Osservazioni 1, 2. La Parte I è stata pubblicata in questo periodico Anno 2°, Fasc. 1°.