Regime shifts in stock–flow I(2)–I(1) systems: the case of US fiscal sustainability

In the last two decades, fiscal sustainability has been tested through the use of non‐stationary time series analysis. Two different approximations can be found in the literature: first, a univariate approach that has focused on the stochastic properties of the stock of debt and, second, a multivariate one that has focused on the long‐run properties of the flows of expenditures and revenues, i.e., in the stochastic properties of the deficit. In this paper we unify these approaches considering the stock–flow system that fiscal variables configure. Our approach involves working in an I(2) stochastic processes framework. Given the possibility of the existence of regime shifts in the sustainability of US deficit that the literature has pointed out, we develop a new statistic that can be applied to test several types of I(2) cointegration and multicointegration relationships allowing for regime shifts. To test for these kinds of changing long‐run relationships we propose the use of a residual‐based Dickey–Fuller class of statistic that accounts for one structural break. We show that consistent estimates of the break fraction can be obtained through the minimization of the sum of squared residuals when there is I(2) cointegration. The finite sample performance of the proposed statistic is investigated by Monte Carlo simulations. The econometric methodology is applied to assess whether the US fiscal deficit and debt are sustainable. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Risk management and reinsurance strategies in the Spanish insurance market (1880–1940)

Reinsurance allows insurance companies to diversify their risks. However, from this original role, insurance companies have developed various reinsurance strategies in order to expand their market share. From the last decades of the nineteenth century to the 1940s, Spanish insurance companies used reinsurance in a largely unregulated context. This article analyses the reinsurance practices and their adaptation to the singularities of the Spanish market, namely: the difficulties for the consolidation of a core of pure reinsurers; the management of reinsurance in the internationalisation process; and the use of reinsurance by mutual societies to overcome their lack of equity capital.     

Money,Prices and the Silver Industry during the Price Revolution

The discovery of American silver has been commonly viewed in the literature as the moving force behind the sustained rise of prices experienced by Western Europe from the early 16th to the mid-17th century. However, the mechanical connection between the money supply and the general price level implied by the Quantity Theory oversimplifies the analysis of a period characterized by different trends, some of which cannot be easily explained by the monetarist story: (i) Central Europe silver mining boomed between 1451 and 1540 following a phase of scarcity of money that was especially severe between the end of the 14th century and the beginning of the 15th century; (ii) European prices started to rise before American silver was significantly imported to the Continent; (iii) the rapid expansion of American mining coincided with the decline of the European silver industry (1540–1618); and finally (iv) Mexican and Peruvian bullion production evidenced a downward course during the period 1628–1697, but no alteration in the rising trend of European prices occurred in response. It is argued instead that the classical theory of value and distribution, emphasizing costs of production as determinants of the ‘natural’ value of commodities including precious metals, can accommodate the facts in a more consistent manner than the monetarist view.     

The relationship between high performance work systems and employee proactive behaviour: role breadth self‐efficacy and flexible role orientation as mediating mechanisms

Drawing on the contextual perspective, this study provides novel empirical evidence on how the organisational context (specifically, the firm's human resource strategy) has an effect on employee proactivity. We use matched data from managers and employees in 102 Spanish professional service firms to examine how high performance work systems contribute to enhance employee proactive behaviours through two motivational variables: role breadth self‐efficacy and flexible role orientation. Results of a multilevel study demonstrate that role breadth self‐efficacy mediates between HPWS and employee proactivity, but flexible role orientation does not mediate this relationship.     

In and out of everyday life through film experiences: an analysis of two social spaces as leisure frames

The new information and communication technologies have made it possible to view films in different spaces. Using the symbolic interactionist framework as a frame of analysis, we interpret the meaning of the two experiences of viewing technology-mediated films in the home and in the cinema. We conducted field research during the first half of 2009, digitally recording 16 interviews with research participants living in Barcelona (Spain). The interviews were transcribed verbatim with the help of voice-recognition software. Reports from our research participants indicate that individuals considered only the cinema experience to be a true leisure activity, while the home experience was interpreted as a routine recreational activity. Therefore, the meanings of the film-viewing activity were associated with the symbolic properties of the frames of interpretation. Finally, we discuss the implications of these findings for the home as a unified centre where shared meanings are co-produced by family members.     

Information technology developments of logistics service providers in Hungary

The objective of this research is to examine the role of sector-specific information technology (IT) developments and their significance in terms of the revenue and earnings before tax of Logistics Service Providers (LSPs), as well as the impact of these developments on the flexibility and integration of LSPs. A survey questionnaire was conducted with 284 LSPs participants. The data provided by the 51 responding enterprises provided a representative sample for the analysis of the sample population and the drawing of general and relevant conclusions related to basic population. It can be concluded that their revenue, earnings before tax and degree of integration into the supply chain depend on the sector-specific IT developments carried out by the given enterprise. IT investments will remain important in the future and the introduction and leveraging the best technologies may yield competitive advantages and higher financial rewards for LSPs.     

The effects of perceived value on loyalty: the moderating effect of market orientation adoption

This paper aims to identify the moderating effect of service firms’ adoption of market orientation on key variables of consumer behavior, namely perceived value and loyalty. The study took a business-to-customer perspective. First, the adoption of market orientation was measured, from the firm’s point of view. Second, customer perceptions were analyzed, using the two variables perceived value and loyalty. The sample comprised 100 service firms and 572 of their customers. The present work provides original insights, identifying that the effect of perceived value on loyalty depends on other variables external to the consumer, such as the market orientation approach.     

Evolving splines and seasonal unit roots in weekly agricultural prices

The univariate statistical properties of agricultural price series need to be examined as a first step in the analysis of price transmission mechanisms. However, in the case of weekly price series, increasingly available, the testing procedures usually applied in this step are not suitable to deal with evolving seasonal effects. In this study, a method of testing for seasonal unit roots in weekly series of agricultural prices is described. When the deterministic seasonal component does not remain constant over time, the restricted evolving spline model (RESM) is shown to be a useful parametric formulation to capture the deterministic seasonal pattern. Therefore, the RESM model should be included as a deterministic component in auxiliary regression for unit root tests at seasonal frequencies. This proposal is applied to three weekly series of Canary Islands banana prices. From the standard seasonal unit root tests, the null hypothesis is failed to be rejected at the 5% or 10% significance level at some seasonal frequencies for each one of the series. Once critical values are obtained by simulation exercises when the RESM model is included, the hypotheses of unit root are rejected at each one of the seasonal frequencies for all of the three series.