Forecasting Turkish real GDP growth in a data-rich environment

This study generates nowcasts and forecasts for the growth rate of the gross domestic product in Turkey using 204 daily financial series with mixed data sa     

What has New Zealand gained from The FTA with China?: Two counterfactual analyses†

We investigate the effects of the 2008 New Zealand (NZ)–China free trade agreement (FTA) on exports from NZ to China, and real GDP per capita in NZ using the synthetic control method to estimate the counterfactuals. NZ exports to China were more than 200% higher in 2014 than what they would have had the FTA never been signed. NZ's food and live animals exports to China were more than 180% higher in 2014 than the counterfactual. Our counterfactuals indicate a small but negative effect of the FTA on NZ's real GDP per capita between 2009 and 2012.     

In search of efficient network structures: the needle in the haystack

Searching for efficient networks can prove a very difficult analytical and even computational task. In this paper, we explore the possibility of using the genetic algorithms (GA) technique to identify efficient network structures in the case of non-trivial payoff functions. The robustness of this method in predicting optimal networks is tested on the two simple stylized models introduced by Jackson and Wolinsky (1996), for which the efficient networks are known over the whole state space of the parameters’ values. This approach allows us to obtain new exploratory results in the case of the linear-spatialized connections model proposed by Johnson and Gilles (Rev Econ Des 5:273–299, 2000), for which the efficient allocation of bilateral connections is driven by contradictory forces that push either for a centralized structure around a coordinating agent, or for only locally and evenly distributed connections. Murat Yıldızoğlu gratefully acknowledges the support of the CCRDT program of Aquitaine Region.     

The Environmentally Friendly Programs in Hotels and Customers' Intention to Stay: An Online Survey Approach

This study surveyed customer perceptions about the environmentally friendly programs (i.e., green programs) in hotels and analyzed the degree to which such programs influenced customers' hotel selection. Data were collected from online travel communities by conducting Web-based online surveys. A total of members from 63 travel-related online communities participated in the survey. Multiple regression analysis results showed that the significant factors that affected client hotel selection were: Solid waste and water programs in guestrooms, energy programs, solid waste and water programs in housekeeping, and biodiversity programs. However, water program by customers' option did not influence customer decisions to stay at environmentally friendly hotels. Results also showed differences in customer awareness and demand for environmentally friendly hotels based on gender, income, and age.     

Price discrimination through multi-level loyalty programs

Loyalty programs often feature multiple rewards with different requirements; for instance, an airline offering a free domestic ticket for 10 K miles, and an international ticket for 20 K miles. This research focuses on the role of multi-level rewards as a segmentation and price discrimination mechanism: Multi-level rewards can increase firm profits when buyers differ in purchase frequency and/or time discount factor. We propose that a program with two rewards can be designed in such a way that (i) it is more profitable than a one-reward program, and (ii) buyers self-select. Light users prefer to receive the smaller reward two times over receiving the larger reward one time, even though the smaller reward is less than half of the larger reward. We show that the smaller reward helps the firm enlarge its base in the light user segment. We also compare multi-level programs with quantity discounts.     

Structural changes,market growth and productivity gains of the US real estate investment trusts in the 1990s

The 1990s were tumultuous times for the US Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) industry. Significant structural changes occurred during the decade, especially after the 1993 Revenue Reconciliation Act, which tremendously boosted the flow of funds into the system by allowing the participation of institutional investors in REITs. As a result, the industry experienced remarkable asset growth during the decade, with a large number of initial public offerings and substantial increases in market capitalization. Employing the Data Envelopment Analysis-type Malmquist index approach, this paper explores the impact of such environmental changes on productivity growth, efficiency change, and technological progress of REITs. Our results indicate that while efficiency of the REITs significantly increased, their average productivity declined and technology regressed during this decade. It appears that the typical REIT has failed to improve technically, but exerted substantial effort to catch up with the best practice ones relying mainly on aggressive growth strategies. However, our empirical results indicate that they might have overextended themselves as most began to suffer from diseconomies of scale.

Employment of the workforce with disabilities in the hospitality industry

A three-stage Delphi study was conducted with experts and professionals working in the fields of disability and hospitality in order to identify some basic principles with respect to employment of people with disabilities (PWD). The potential effects of employing PWD on safety, cost, efficiency, service quality and management were investigated. Potentials and limitations of people with different types and degrees of disabilities with regard to jobs in the hospitality industry were also questioned. A notable guiding principle emanating from this study is that hiring of employees should be based on merit, suitability and capability of the candidate, regardless of the presence or degree of disability. Another important outcome is that the job or task appointed to PWD should not deteriorate the disability. A common guideline expressed by the participants was that jobs which critically require a certain sense or ability are not suitable for PWD who do not possess this sense or ability even with the aid of technology or by other means. However, apart from such extreme and obvious cases, experts mostly agree that PWD can fulfill any task in the hospitality industry as long as their professional knowledge and skills fit those tasks.     

Capital mobility and foreign debt sustainabilty: some evidence from Turkey

This paper address the extent of capital mobility and foreign debt sustainability in Turkey over the 1962–2003 period by examining the relationship between saving and investment, and imports and exports, respectively. The empirical investment is based on cointegration, error correction models, and threshold and momentum threshold autoregressive models. Our findings are consistent with the existence of capital mobility and the ‘Strong’ form of foreign debt sustainability.     

International Visibility of Balkan Economists in the Post-Socialist Era

During the socialist era, economists in the Balkan countries rarely published their work in the West due to political restrictions, methodological differences with the West, and inadequacy in Western languages. After the collapse of socialism, political barriers were lifted, a Western style of education in economics was adopted, and English began to be taught widely as the common language in the academic realm. The aim of this study is to discuss the impact of these policies on the publication performance of economists in the former socialist countries of the Balkans region. The results reveal that the number of international publications increased gradually over the post-socialist period and fast-reforming countries performed better than the slow movers.     

Associations between workers' health,and non-standard hours and insecurity: the case of home care workers in Ontario,Canada

This article examines associations between home care workers' health, and non-standard hours and insecurity. Health refers to symptoms of stress and musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs), non-standard hours refer to part-time and casual hours, and insecurity refers to job and employability insecurity. Data come from our 2002 survey of 532 home care workers (nurses, therapists and personal support workers) in a medium-sized city in Ontario, Canada. Path analysis regression results for the conceptual model show that (1) part-time and casual hours and job insecurity are positively and significantly associated with symptoms of stress, (2) the associations between part-time and casual hours and MSDs are mediated by symptoms of stress, and (3) job and employability insecurity are directly associated with MSDs. Results provide evidence that non-standard hours and insecurity must be addressed in order to improve home care workers' health. We show the detrimental effects of non-standard hours and insecurity on workers' health, and the results have implications for employers, human resource managers, trade unionists and government policy-makers.