Bringing History In: Policy accumulation and general policy alienation

Research mainly looked at problems public professionals have with specific policy programmes. However, policies are not developed in a vacuum. Public professionals are often confronted with (a series of) policy changes, intended to refine, replace or complement other policies. This policy accumulation results in professionals having a certain predisposition towards policies in general. To conceptualize this predisposition, we introduce the term general policy alienation. We investigate whether the earlier developed policy alienation scale can be adapted to measure general policy alienation. Our analyses show that the scale performs satisfactorily. Theoretical relevance, as well as directions for practical applications are discussed.     

Estimating the impact of social isolation on subjective health in Europe

Quality & Quantity - We investigate the relationship between social isolation and subjective health, considering that this relationship is potentially affected by endogeneity due to the...     

Leveraging purchase regularity for predicting customer behavior the easy way

The valuation of future customer activity is a mainstay of any organization seeking to efficiently manage its customer portfolio. In the area of customer-base analytics, the ongoing race for predictive power has yielded a large corpus of research to assist managers in this respect. Approaches in the tradition of stochastic models have been particularly successful because they rely only on easy-to-compute key metrics and integrate them within a parsimonious probability-modeling framework. Recent advances in this field have demonstrated that incorporating the timing regularity of past purchases can improve predictive accuracy relative to purely recency/frequency-based approaches. This paper expands that idea and introduces generalizations of a well-established probability model, the BG/NBD (Fader et al., 2005a), by replacing the exponential with a more flexible Erlang-k interarrival timing process. The resulting model variants are capable of leveraging regularity while retaining almost the same level of data requirements and algorithmic efficiency. Using extensive simulation studies and six data sets covering a wide range of empirical settings the authors demonstrate substantial improvements in predictive accuracy against the baseline models and performance gains close to or on par with a more complex model alternative. The availability of efficient and easily accessible implementations of the new model variants in the R-package BTYDplus allows marketing analysts to apply them in large-scale scenarios of data-rich environments on a continuous basis.     

A snapshot of public finance research from immediately prior to the pandemic: IIPF 2020

As the COVID-19 pandemic has shaped public policies and government finances, it has also influenced the topics that public finance economists are researching. Because the 2020 International Institute of Public Finance Congress featured papers that were submitted prior to the start of the pandemic, the Congress allows us to reflect on the state of research prior to the pandemic’s shock to both fiscal policies and our worldview. In this article, the Editors of International Tax and Public Finance reflect on interesting papers that were presented at this internationally representative conference in public economics. The exercise provides insight on where the field of public economics was heading prior to the pandemic and will provide a yardstick to see how the field evolves in the coming years afterward.

     

Early stage SME bankruptcy: does the local banking market matter?

Small Business Economics - This paper investigates the role of local context, with regard to the effect of local financial development and banking concentration, on a firm’s probability of...     

Implicit Options in Life Insurance: Valuation and Risk Management

Participating life insurance contracts typically contain various types of implicit options. These implicit options can be very valuable and can thus represent a significant risk to insurance companies if they practice insufficient risk management. Options become especially risky through interaction with other options included in the contracts, which makes their evaluation even more complex. This article provides a comprehensive overview and classification of implicit options in participating life insurance contracts and discusses the relevant literature. It points out the potential problems particularly associated with the valuation of rights to early exercise due to policyholder exercise behavior. The risk potential of the interaction of implicit options is illustrated with numerical examples by means of a life insurance contract that includes common implicit options, i.e., a guaranteed interest rate, stochastic annual surplus participation, and paid-up and resumption options. Valuation is conducted using risk-neutral valuation, a concept that implicitly assumes the implementation of risk management measures such as hedging strategies.     

Enterprise risk management in financial groups: analysis of risk concentration and default risk

In financial groups, enterprise risk management is becoming increasingly important in controlling and managing the different independent legal entities in the group. The aim of this paper is to assess and relate risk concentration and joint default probabilities of the group’s legal entities in order to achieve a more comprehensive picture of a financial group’s risk situation. We further examine the impact of the type of dependence structure on results by comparing linear and nonlinear dependencies using different copula concepts under certain distributional assumptions. Our results show that even if financial groups with different dependence structures do have the same risk concentration factor, joint default probabilities of different sets of subsidiaries can vary tremendously.

Factors motivating male consumers’ eco‐friendly apparel acquisition in the South African emerging market

The necessity of pro‐environmental apparel behaviour is to date a neglected concept in the local South African apparel industry. This study focuses on male consumers’ underlying motivation and intent to acquire apparel in an eco‐friendly manner. The research hypotheses and framework for this study are based on the Norm‐Activation Theory and the Theory of Planned Behaviour to clarify underlying motivational factors that contribute to pro‐environmental apparel acquisition. Pro‐environmental approaches were conceptualized as consumers’ purposive reduction of the amount of apparel acquired as well as the evaluation and selection of apparel based on pro‐environmental attributes. A quantitative, cross‐sectional survey approach was used for explanatory research purposes. Male consumers (18 years and older, n = 305) were reached by means of non‐probability, purposive sampling. Respondents completed online and paper‐based questionnaires that included adapted scale items for use in the local context. Results suggest that respondents are aware of the environmental consequences of their apparel behaviour, which then ultimately influences their behavioural intent. In contrast to studies conducted abroad, social and moral norms did not significantly influence their decisions to acquire apparel in a pro‐environmental manner. Respondents’ attitudes and self‐efficacy (i.e. a dimension of perceived behavioural control) contributed to their pro‐environmental intent. Yet, controllability (another dimension of perceived behavioural control) was not a significant predictor of intent and warrants further empirical research. The findings of this study substantiate important recommendations for the development of intervention strategies to promote pro‐environmental apparel behaviour in emerging market contexts such as South Africa.