THE MEASUREMENT OF EMPLOYMENT STATUS IN SOUTH AFRICA USING COHORT ANALYSIS, 1994‐20041

We analyse trends in employment, unemployment and labour force participation by simple graphical techniques, using all the October Household Surveys and the September Labour Force Surveys. We show that African male employment in 1995 seems high, when compared to all the other surveys. Furthermore much of the increase in African female labour force participation is concentrated in the period 1998 to 2000, which suggests that measurement and sampling changes may be partially responsible for the trend. We track cohorts of individuals over the eleven years for which we have data. We show that young people are leaving school earlier, while being better educated than their elders. They are not, however, being absorbed into employment at a faster rate. This has led to a spike in youth unemployment.     

Spillovers of the Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy from the US to South Africa

This paper assesses the effect of US monetary policy on South Africa during the period 1990–2018. We separately analyse and compare the effect of conventional monetary policy, before the Global Financial Crisis, and unconventional monetary policy, after the US monetary policy reached the zero-lower bound. Our impulse response function results indicate that monetary policy in South Africa responds mainly to local inflation, economic activity and financial conditions. While there is strong correlation between the global and South African financial cycle, the financial cycle is not transmitted to the real economy because of the sluggish response of industrial production and domestic credit, especially after the global financial crisis. We see this as an indication of the effects of structural issues to the real economy and constrained households’ balance sheet which has prevented the local economy to take advantage of low local interest rates and the global economic recovery after the crisis.     

Financial Integration in the GCC Region: Market Size Versus National Effects

Open Economies Review - This paper examines financial spillovers between the four largest equity markets (by market capitalization) in the GCC region using a VAR-GARCH (1,1) framework that sheds...     

Family ownership and environmental performance: The mediation effect of human resource practices

Previous literature has found that listed family firms underperform their nonfamily counterparts in terms of environmental performance, but has not explained why this occurs. We address this research gap by hypothesizing that training and development practices (i.e., managerial practices devoted to providing training and development for the workforce) mediate the relationship between family blockholders and environmental performance. Using a sample of 33,901 firm‐year observations from 2002 to 2016 distributed across 56 countries and employing the structural equation model technique, we find that investment in training and development practices explains almost half of the negative relationship between family blockholders and environmental performance. Our study contributes to the agency theory debate on principal–principal problems by explaining why family blockholders could damage other blockholders and minority shareholders.     

Modelling choice and switching behaviour between Scottish ski centres

The paper identifies the need to model the skier's choice of centre and the basic ideas underlying discrete choice models and their estimation. It then identifies data requirements and sources, the final choice of specification and the estimated parameters of the resultant nested multinomial logit model. The results indicate two quite distinct markets. For day-trippers snow cover, cost, and, to a lesser extent, the journey length, were the critical factors. For those staying overnight the key determinant in this market seems to be accommodation. Interestingly centres which for the day-tripper are competitors, become, for the overnight customer, complementary.     

SIR WALDRON SMITHERS AND THE MUDDLE OF THE TORY MIDDLE

Waldron Smithers was highly critical of Attlee's post‐war Labour government and placed much weight on Hayek having dedicated The Road to Serfdom to ‘the Socialists of all parties’. Accordingly, Smithers was assiduous in combating what he saw as a dangerous turn towards middle‐way policy within his own party in the late 1940s.     

Fare elasticities of demand for direct and indirect flights in sub-Saharan Africa

This article examines the different demands for direct and indirect flights within sub-Saharan Africa. It develops both a simple reduced form model and a more refined two equation simultaneously system to examine bookings and fares on the major air transportation corridors. Using panel data, this allows estimation of the different fare elasticities of demand for direct and indirect services between the continents’ major cities as well as assessing the respective merits of the two models used.     

Recursive methods for incentive problems

Many dynamic incentive problems have a primal recursive formulation in which utility promises serve as state variables. We associate dual recursive formulations with these problems. We make transparent the connections between recursive primal and dual approaches, relate value iteration under each and give conditions for such value iteration to be convergent to the true value function.