Pricing and static hedging of European-style double barrier options under the jump to default extended CEV model

This paper develops two novel methodologies for pricing and hedging European-style barrier option contracts under the jump to default extended constant elasticity of variance (JDCEV) model, namely: a stopping time approach based on the first passage time densities of the underlying asset price process through the barrier levels; and a static hedging portfolio approach in which the barrier option is replicated by a portfolio of plain-vanilla and binary options. In doing so, both valuation methodologies are extended to a more general set-up accommodating endogenous bankruptcy, time-dependent barriers and the commonly observed stylized facts of a positive link between default and equity volatility and of a negative link between volatility and stock price. The two proposed numerical methods are shown to be accurate, easy to implement and efficient under both the JDCEV model and the nested constant elasticity of variance model.     

Capital Structure of Portuguese Service Industries: A Panel Data Analysis

Using panel data for the period 1999–2003, this study shows that internal and external financing are not perfect substitutes, not corroborating the theorem of Modigliani and Miller. Portuguese service industries prefer internal to external financing, corroborating Pecking Order theory. The bigger the size of the company, the greater the level of debt, corroborating Trade-Off and Signalling theories. The negative relationship between the amount of fixed capital and debt corroborates Agency theory. The results allow us to conclude that debt contributes to improving management efficiency, agency problems between shareholders and creditors having little relevance.     

Are there nonlinear relationships between the profitability of Portuguese service SME and its specific determinants?

Using quantile regressions, this paper examines the possibility of significant nonlinear relationships between the profitability of Portuguese service small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and its specific determinants. The results lead to the conclusion that there is a significant nonlinearity between specific determinants and profitability in Portuguese service SMEs. In the lower quantiles of the distribution of profitability of Portuguese SMEs, it is found that profitability on the one hand is catalysed by size, long-term debt and managerial control, and on the other hand, it is restricted by risk and research and development intensity. In the upper quantiles of the profitability distribution of Portuguese service SMEs, liquidity and research and development intensity serve as catalysers of profitability, while long-term debt restricts the level of profitability.     

High-speed rail transport valuation and conjecture shocks

In this paper, we derive the optimal investment policy in a high-speed rail transport (HSR) project. We assume that the source of uncertainty comes from the annual demand, and that it follows a geometric Brownian motion with jumps of random magnitude, occurring in random times, according to a Poisson process. We assess the impact of these shocks on the demand threshold, along with the investment opportunity value and option to differ. We consider several distributions for these jumps, and we compare with the no-jumps case. Numerical results are presented, showing the importance of assumptions about the underlying stochastic process.     

Tests for Multiple Breaks in the Trend with Stationary or Integrated Shocks

In this paper, we propose new tests of the presence of multiple breaks in the trend of a univariate time‐series where the number and dates of the breaks are unknown and that are valid in the presence of stationary or unit root shocks. These tests can also be used to sequentially estimate the number of breaks. The behaviour of the proposed tests is studied through Monte Carlo experiments.     

Pricing real options under the constant elasticity of variance diffusion

Much of the work on real options assumes that the underlying state variable follows a geometric Brownian motion with constant volatility. This paper uses a more general assumption for the state variable process that better captures the empirical regularities found in commodity markets. We use the constant elasticity of variance diffusion, where volatility is a function of underlying asset prices, and we provide analytic solutions for perpetual American options. We show that a firm that uses the standard lognormal assumption is exposed to significant errors of analysis, which may lead to nonoptimal investment and disinvestment decisions. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 31:230–250, 2011     

Interest Rate Derivatives in a Duffie and Kan Model with Stochastic Volatility: An Arrow-Debreu Pricing Approach

Simple analytical pricing formulae have been derived, by different authors and for several derivatives, under the Gaussian Langetieg (1980) model. The purpose of this paper is to use such exact Gaussian solutions in order to obtain approximate analytical pricing formulas under the most general stochastic volatility specification of the Duffie and Kan (1996) model. Using Gaussian Arrow-Debreu state prices, first order stochastic volatility approximate pricing solutions will be derived only involving one integral with respect to the time-to-maturity of the contingent claim under valuation. Such approximations will be shown to be much faster than the existing exact numerical solutions, as well as accurate.     

Your loyalty program is betraying you

Even as loyalty programs are launched left and right, many are being scuttled. How can that be? These days, everyone knows that an old customer retained is worth more than a new customer won. What is so hard about making a simple loyalty program work? Quite a lot, the authors say. The biggest challenges include clarifying business goals, engineering the reward structure, and creating incentives powerful enough to change buying behavior but not so generous that they erode margins. Additionally, companies have to sort out the puzzles of consumer psychology, which can result, for example, in two rewards of equal economic value inspiring very different levels of purchasing. In their research, the authors have discovered patterns in what the successful loyalty programs get right and in how the others fail. Together, their findings constitute a tool kit for designing something rare indeed: a program that won't do you wrong. To begin with, it's important to know exactly what a loyalty program can do. It can keep customers from defecting, induce them to consolidate certain purchases with one seller (in other words, win a greater share of wallet), prompt customers to make additional purchases, yield insight into their behavior and preferences, and turn a profit. A program can meet these objectives in several ways--for instance, by offering rewards (points, say, or frequent-flier miles) divisible enough to provide many redemption opportunities but not so divisible that they fail to lock in customers. Companies striving to generate customer loyalty should avoid five common mistakes: Don't create a new commodity, which can result in price wars and other tit-for-tat competitive moves; don't cater to the disloyal by making rewards easy for just anyone to reap; don't reward purchasing volume over profitability; don't give away the store; and, finally, don't promise what can't be delivered.