News and sovereign default risk in small open economies

This paper builds a unified model of sovereign debt, default risk, and news shocks. News shocks improve the quantitative performance of the sovereign default model in a number of empirically-relevant dimensions. First, with news shocks, not all defaults occur during downturns. Second, the news shocks help account for key differences between developing and more developed economies: as the precision of news improves, the model predicts lower variability of consumption, less countercyclical trade balance and interest rate spreads, as well as a higher level of debt in line with more developed economies. Third, the model captures the hump-shaped relationship between default rates and the precision of news obtained from the data. Finally, the news shocks have a nonmonotonic effect on welfare.     

The influence of age on SMEs’ growth determinants: empirical evidence

This paper seeks to investigate whether age is a fundamental characteristic of the relationships between determinants and growth. The empirical evidence obtained allows us to conclude that: (1) age and size are restrictive factors of the growth of young SMEs, but they are not important for the growth of old SMEs; (2) cash flow and debt are of greater relative importance for growth in young SMEs than for growth in old SMEs; (3) R&D intensity and labour productivity are of greater relative importance for growth in old SMEs than for growth in young SMEs; (4) interest on debt is of greater relative importance for diminished growth in young SMEs than for diminished growth in old SMEs; and (5) R&D intensity in situations of financial deficit is of greater relative importance for diminished growth in young SMEs than for diminished growth in old SMEs, but only in context of high-tech SMEs.     

Does tourism influence economic growth? A dynamic panel data approach

On average, tourism-specialized countries grow more than others. This is not consistent with the core of modern economic growth theory that suggests that economic growth is linked to sectors with high-tech intensity and large scale. In this article, we use appropriate panel data methods to study the relationship between tourism and economic growth. In general, we show that tourism is a positive determinant of economic growth both in a broad sample of countries and in a sample of poor countries. However, contrary to previous contributions, tourism is not more relevant in small countries than in a general sample.     

Profitability in Portuguese service industries: a panel data approach

Based on various panel models, we study the profitability determinants of Portuguese service industries. The results obtained show that profitability is persistent over time, and that for larger companies with greater growth, a lower level of debt and lower level of fixed assets are more profitable. Considering the results obtained, we can conclude that diversification of activities and motivation as well as the tendency to innovate contribute positively to increased profitability in Portuguese service industries, whereas the need to pay off debt charges periodically harms profitability. The government would be well advised to create special credit channels that would permit the greater growth of Portuguese service industries, especially those most inclined to innovate.     

The <Emphasis Type="Italic">featuring</Emphasis> phenomenon in music: how combining artists of different genres increases a song’s popularity

The appearance of songs including featured artists on Billboard’s Hot 100 music charts has increased exponentially in the past two decades. This particular type of creative collaboration involves one artist integrating another artist’s contribution, either instrumentally or vocally, into their work and publicizing it with a “featuring” credit. According to broad literature in sociology on categorical boundaries, artists who deviate from existing genres are expected to be penalized for violating collective expectations and norms. We find songs featuring other artists actually have a greater likelihood of making it into the top 10 than songs not featuring other artists. Additionally, consistent with theorizing about congruency in the co-branding literature, we observe that the greater the difference (cultural distance) between the genres of the artists involved, the more likely the song is to reach the top of the charts. We argue that by combining the expertise of specialists in each genre, as well as comingling audiences while still maintaining each collaborator’s original positioning, artists who feature artists from other genres are able to produce more successful songs.     

Mapping Biodiversity Indicators and Assessing Biodiversity Values in Global Forests

Biodiversity loss is a problem of global concern affecting ecosystem functioning and services provided to humans. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment is built on a conceptual framework that links biodiversity with the services ecosystems provide to society and human welfare. Numerous empirical studies have measured ecosystem goods and services in terms of economic values; however, less evidence is available of the indirect effect of biodiversity on these values. Based on this, we first compile market and non-market forest valuation studies and, secondly, explore the potential of an econometric modelling exercise by conducting a worldwide meta-analysis. This exercise aims to highlight the role of biodiversity indicators on valuation. In this way, we can study the underlying transmission mechanisms that explain to what extent biodiversity is related to human welfare. Furthermore, we also propose to evaluate the magnitudes of the respective distributional impacts, including the different ecosystem goods and services under consideration. Our results show that biodiversity indicators may have an underlying effect on forest ecosystem values, which also depend on the type of ecosystem services. Lastly, the results are discussed and analysed with respect to their policy implications concerning biodiversity conservation.     

Performance comparison of alternative stochastic volatility models and its determinants in energy futures: COVID-19 and Russia–Ukraine conflict features

This paper studies the volatility dynamics of futures contracts on crude oil, natural gas, and gasoline. An appropriate Bayesian model comparison exercise between seven stochastic volatility (SV) models is estimated using daily prices for our futures contracts between 2005 and 2023. Moreover, to assess the impacts of COVID-19 and the Russia–Ukraine conflict on volatility, we analyze these two subsamples. Overall, we find that: (i) the Bayes factor shows that the SV model with -distributed innovations outperforms the competing models; (ii) crude oil contracts with different expiry dates may require the introduction of leverage effects; (iii) the $$-distributed innovations remain the appropriate model for the COVID-19 subsample, while jumps are needed in the conflict period; and (iv) other Bayesian criteria more appropriate to short-term predictive ability—such as the conditional and the observed-date deviance information criterion—suggest other rank order to model our futures contracts, despite the agreements for the best models.     

International comovement of stock market returns: A wavelet analysis

The assessment of the comovement among international stock markets is of key interest, for example, for the international portfolio diversification literature. In this paper, we re-examine such comovement by resorting to a novel approach, wavelet analysis. Wavelet analysis allows one to measure the comovement in the time–frequency space. In this way, one can characterize how international stock returns relate in the time and frequency domains simultaneously, which allows one to provide a richer analysis of the comovement. We focus on Germany, Japan, UK and US and the analysis is done at both the aggregate and sectoral levels.     

Operational efficiency vs clinical safety,care appropriateness,timeliness, and access to health care

Journal of Productivity Analysis - Health care systems face resource scarcity that may jeopardise their financial sustainability as well as the quality of delivered health care. In view of that,...     

Economic valuation of climate‐change‐induced vinery landscape impacts on tourism flows in Tuscany

It is widely acknowledged that landscape features can play a major role in determining tourism demand. The present article assesses the impact of vinery landscape and high‐quality wine production on regional tourism flows in Tuscany, an important tourist region in Italy and renowned for its enchanting countryside. Thus, vinery landscape and high‐quality wine production have been included as explanatory variables in our model for tourism flows. This model has been estimated for both international and domestic markets for the whole region of Tuscany. Estimation results confirm that land areas devoted to the production of these superb Tuscan wines, in the particular case of Siena including the Brunello di Montalcino, play an important role in explaining international tourism flows. In this context, we estimate climate‐change‐induced impacts on vinery landscape and quality wines in the tourism sector. These are estimated to cause a loss in the tourism revenues of nearly 15 and 20 million Euros a year, respectively, for 2020 and 2050, for the Tuscany region. Such losses are quite significant, and reiterate the urgency to identify and implement adequate policy options so as to moderate such land use changes, and respective negative welfare impacts.