Risk perception and risk management in Norwegian aquaculture

This exploratory study seeks to provide empirical knowledge about fish farmers' risk attitudes, risk sources and risk management tools by presenting the results from a survey among Norwegian fish farming companies. The results show that fish farmers think of themselves as only moderately risk averse compared, for instance, to crop and livestock farmers. The most important sources of risk are considered to be future salmon prices, institutional risks and fish diseases, while keeping costs low is the most important risk management tool.     

Voluntary management earnings forecasts and discretionary accruals: evidence from Danish IPOs

This paper seeks to determine whether Danish managers exercise discretionary accruals to reach earnings forecast targets they voluntarily specify in conjunction with initial public offerings (IPOs). Because the Danish accounting and legal environment is more permissive than the US, we use Denmark as a natural laboratory for learning how business would occur without strict rules, enforcement and sanctions. Danish managers often volunteer pro forma financial statements for results that are expected to occur subsequent to the IPO. We examine a sample of 58 Danish firms that issue voluntary management earnings forecasts in connection with IPOs that occur between 1984 and 1996. The evidence we uncover strongly suggests that pre-managed earnings are adjusted toward these targets. In contrast with Kasznik's (1999 Kasznik, R. (1999). On the association between voluntary disclosure and earnings management. Journal of Accounting Research, 37: pp. 57–81 [Google Scholar]) results related to voluntarily forecasting American firms, managers of Danish firms exercise discretionary accruals to mitigate earnings forecast errors regardless of whether pre-managed earnings are less, or greater, than the IPO forecast amount.     

Is the European union a natural currency area, or is it held together by policy makers?

Is the European Union a Natural Currency Area, or Is It Held Together by Policymakers? — In 1999, EMU started with 11 members, but with considerable uncertainty about the depth of the convergence between them. The optimal currency area literature stresses the need for shocks which are symmetric and of similar size across countries. Our results show that symmetries in the core are only marginally stronger than those in the periphery; and that these symmetries have been increasingly maintained by policy interventions. Consequently, Europe may evolve into an optimal currency area; but the symmetries will be policy-induced rather than a market phenomenon. This suggests a fragility which could be reflected in the value of the new currency.     

Altersvorsorge und Konsumverhalten von Frauen in Deutschland

Die Renten aus der Gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung werden aufgrund der demografischen Entwicklung sowohl für M?nner als auch für Frauen relativ zu den Erwerbseinkommen sinken. Frauen sind dabei zus?tzlich spezifischen Rentenrisiken ausgesetzt. Um die Unterschiede zukünftig auszugleichen, helfen insbesondere Ma?nahmen, die die Vereinbarkeit von Familie und Beruf verbessern.     

Müssen wir uns vor Staatsfonds schützen?

Staatliche Verm?gensfonds suchen derzeit auf den internationalen Finanzm?rkten nach Anlagem?glichkeiten für mehr als 3 Billionen US-Dollar, und die Fondsvolumina wachsen rasant. Wie wirkt sich das Engagement von Staatsfonds auf die inl?ndische Wirtschaft in potentiellen Anlagel?ndern aus und wie sollte darauf reagiert werden? Sind die Bestrebungen der Bundesregierung, Staatsfonds durch neue gesetzliche Regeln besser kontrollieren zu k?nnen, ?konomisch gerechtfertigt? Gibt es konkrete Hinweise darauf, welche Anlagestrategien die Staatsfonds tats?chlich verfolgen? Prof. Dr. Henning Klodt, 56, leitet das Zentrum Wirtschaftspolitik am Institut für Weltwirtschaft in Kiel. * Für vielf?ltige Anregungen und Hinweise dankt der Autor den Teilnehmern der Politikwerkstatt „Motive und Anlagestrategien von Staatsfonds“, die am 24. Januar 2008 gemeinsam vom Bundesministerium der Finanzen und dem Institut für Weltwirtschaft veranstaltet wurde.     

A Tutorial on Reversible Jump MCMC with a View toward Applications in QTL-mapping

A tutorial derivation of the reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is given. Various examples illustrate how reversible jump MCMC is a general framework for Metropolis-Hastings algorithms where the proposal and the target distribution may have densities on spaces of varying dimension. It is finally discussed how reversible jump MCMC can be applied in genetics to compute the posterior distribution of the number, locations, effects, and genotypes of putative quantitative trait loci.     

Laws of large numbers for Hayashi–Yoshida-type functionals

The main object in the statistical analysis of high-frequency financial data are sums of functionals of increments of stochastic processes, and statistical inference is based on the asymptotic behaviour of these sums as the mesh of the observation times tends to zero. Inspired by the famous Hayashi–Yoshida estimator for the quadratic covariation based on two asynchronously observed stochastic processes, we investigate similar sums for general functionals. We find that our results differ from corresponding results for synchronous observations, a case which has been well studied in the literature, and we observe that the asymptotic behaviour in the setting of asynchronous observations is not only determined by the nature of the functional, but also depends crucially on the asymptotics of the observation scheme. Several examples are discussed, including the case of \(f(x_{1},x_{2}) = |x_{1}|^{p_{1}} |x_{2}|^{p_{2}}\) which has various applications in empirical finance.

     

The role of FDI in structural change: Evidence from Mexico

Foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to Mexico are substantial and play an important role in the Mexican economy since the mid-1990s. These investments reflect the activities of multinational firms that shape to some extent the economic landscape and sectoral structure in this host country. We illustrate that there is considerable variation in the amounts of FDI and structural change within the country and across time. Based on this, the paper's main purpose is to analyse whether there is a significant impact of FDI on structural change. We conduct an empirical analysis covering the period 2006–16. We use the fixed-effects estimator where the unit of observation is a Mexican state for which we calculate structural change from the reallocation of labour between sectors. The results suggest that (if any) there is a positive effect from FDI on growth-enhancing structural change. This effect depends critically on the lag structure of FDI. Moreover, there is some evidence that the positive effect (a) arises from FDI flows in the industry sector and (b) is present for medium and low-skilled labour reallocation.