Forecasting annual water demands dominated by seasonal variations: the case of water demands in Mecca

Water usage in Mecca is dominated by trends and cyclical variations in the number of foreign pilgrims visiting for the annual Hajj Pilgrimage. Time series regressions show that the mean temperature in Mecca at the time of the Hajj affects the number of pilgrims, inducing a long-term cyclical pattern for this variable and therefore water usage. The cointegrating relation between water usage, number of external pilgrims and temperature produces long-run forecasts of Mecca water demand.     

THE ROLE OF SECURITY IN THE FOOD SUPPLIER SELECTION DECISION

This research assesses whether, and under what conditions, firms are willing to trade off price and delivery reliability for greater supplier security. Specifically, international sourcing and concern over security incidents occurring at the respondent's firm are proposed as conditions that may increase demand for supplier security. This research suggests to managers the trade offs their customers may be willing to accept for increased security. The results are useful for firms evaluating whether they should invest in supply chain security measures. Results provide academic insight into the relative importance of security as a supplier selection criterion.     

On the permanent effect of an aggregate demand shock: Evidence from the G-7 countries

This paper extends the work of Cover, Enders and Hueng (2006) to examine the idea that an aggregate demand shock may have permanent effect on the output level by indirectly shifting the aggregate supply curve. We utilize the bivariate SVAR modeling and adopt an identification scheme, which allows for the possibility that a shift in the aggregate demand curve may induce the long-run aggregate supply curve to shift. We have shown that aggregate supply shocks are positively affected by the demand shocks in each of the G-7 countries. It is found that a one-time positive aggregate demand shock increases the output level permanently in these industrialized economies. We have also shown that our decomposition strategy can help resolve anomalies in the responses of inflation to a positive aggregate supply shock observed in a simple Blanchard-Quah decomposition.     

Operational model for planning the harvest and distribution of perishable agricultural products

This paper presents an operational model that generates short term planning decisions for the fresh produce industry. In particular, the application developed helps the grower to maximize his revenues by making production and distribution decisions during the harvest season. The main motivation for this model comes from the fact that the profitability of producers is highly dependent on the handling of short term planning in the harvest season. Some of the factors affecting profitability include the management of labor costs, the preservation of the value of perishable crops, and the use transportation modes that provide the best trade-off between time (quality of products) and cost. These issues are interrelated, and their judicious management is fundamental for attaining good financial results. The results of the proposed planning model indicate that significant savings can be obtained by managing the trade-off of the freshness at the delivery of the product with the added labor and transportation cost at the grower's side. Moreover the results also show that dynamic, information based, management practices might be preferred over traditional practices based in fixed labor allocation and distribution practices.     

A heuristic method for parameter selection in LS-SVM: Application to time series prediction

Least Squares Support Vector Machines (LS-SVM) are the state of the art in kernel methods for regression. These models have been successfully applied for time series modelling and prediction. A critical issue for the performance of these models is the choice of the kernel parameters and the hyperparameters which define the function to be minimized. In this paper a heuristic method for setting both the σ parameter of the Gaussian kernel and the regularization hyperparameter based on information extracted from the time series to be modelled is presented and evaluated.     

Innovation in Labor Contracts: On the Adoption of Profit Sharing inCanadian Labor Contracts

I present a model in which I show that labor contracts with wages indexed to prices have longer optimal contract lengths and therefore are more likely to adopt performance-related pay. There is empirical support for these predictions in Canadian collective-bargaining agreements. Contract durations are longer in indexed contracts. Performance-related pay is more than twice as likely to be adopted and present in indexed contracts and more likely to be adopted in contracts with longer durations.     

New international business perspectives on Pakistan

What image comes to mind when one thinks of Pakistan? Prior to the attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent invasion of Afghanistan, many businesspeople had little information about this ancient land. Recently, Pakistan has come to the world's attention as a powerful ally in the U.S.‐led war against terrorism. Situated at the crossroads of the Middle East, Southeast Asia, China, and member nations of the former Soviet Union, Pakistan has long been a leading player in regional political and economic activity. This article presents some new perspectives on Pakistan as a market worthy of a closer look. We survey Pakistan's history and geography, as well as its sociocultural, political‐legal, economic, and competitive environments with a view to identifying new opportunities for foreign investors and global marketers. Current business trends and marketing opportunities are discussed, concluding with an outlook for future growth and development. Valuable insights are offered to businesspeople interested in doing business in Pakistan, a little‐studied but vitally important newly industrializing country (NIC) and big emerging market (BEM). © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The impact of market liberalization on vertical scope: the case of Argentina

This paper analyzes the impact of market liberalization on the vertical scope of firms. Using the case of Argentina, it is shown how the opening of the economy can improve contracting abilities and heighten competition, increasing the ability and incentive of firms to outsource. Survey findings support the main hypothesis as well as the specific importance of reforms relating to inflation, import costs, and heightened demand standards in increasing the use of outsourcing. A case study of the steel producer Siderar, highlights that while firms may reduce their presence in peripheral activities, they may also increase their presence in core areas so as to increase their value proposition. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Credit programs for the poor and the health status of children in rural bangladesh*

The impact of participation in group‐based credit programs, by gender of participant, on the health status of children by gender in rural Bangladesh is investigated. These credit programs are well suited to studies of how gender‐specific resources alter intra‐household allocations because they induce differential participation by gender. Women's credit is found to have a large and statistically significant impact on two of three measures of the healthiness of both boy and girl children. Credit provided to men has no statistically significant impact and the null hypothesis of equal credit effects by gender of participant is rejected.