Testing the Predictive Power of Dividend Yields

This paper reexamines the ability of dividend yields to predict long-horizon stock returns. We use the bootstrap methodology, as well as simulations, to examine the distribution of test statistics under the null hypothesis of no forecasting ability. These experiments are constructed so as to maintain the dynamics of regressions with lagged dependent variables over long horizons. We find that the empirically observed statistics are well within the 95% bounds of their simulated distributions. Overall there is no strong statistical evidence indicating that dividend yields can be used to forecast stock returns.     

QUADRATIC PEN'S PARADE AND THE COMPUTATION OF THE GINI INDEX

Following Milanovic's (1997) paper, we propose a simple way to compute the Gini index when income y is a quadratic function of its rank among n individuals.     

Power of Incentives with Motivated Agents in Public Organizations

Public service motivation is often considered as an argument for low‐powered incentive schemes in the public sector. In this paper, we characterize the optimal contract between a public regulator and an altruistic agent according to the degree α of public service motivation, when the type of the public service consumer is privately observed. We show that the requested effort is nondecreasing with α and can be higher than the first‐best level. Moreover, we show that the agent is put on a high‐powered contract when some customers are served but that this contract is associated with different types of consumers according to α. In contrast, the agent is never put on a cost‐plus contract. Finally, we show that the first‐best allocation can be achieved under budget balance for a degree of altruism higher than a threshold that we characterize.     

FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY AND THE FISCAL REACTION FUNCTION FOR SOUTH AFRICA: ASSESSMENT OF THE PAST AND FUTURE POLICY APPLICATIONS

How does the South African government react to changes in its debt position? In investigating this question, this paper estimates fiscal reaction functions using various methods (ordinary least squares, threshold autoregressive, state‐space modelling and vector error‐correction model). This paper finds that since 1946, the South African government has run sustainable fiscal policy by reducing the primary deficit or increasing the surplus in response to rising debt. Looking ahead, this paper considers the use of fiscal reaction functions to forecast the debt/gross domestic product (GDP) ratio and gauging the likelihood of achieving policy goals with the aid of probabilistic simulations and fan charts.     

The Optimal Asymptotic Income Tax Rate

This paper shows that a policy maker needs only two types of information to set the optimal income tax rate at the top: a measure of labor supply elasticity and the shape of skills distribution. We find that the asymptotic tax rate is not affected by the degree of inequality aversion as long as the marginal utility of consumption converges to zero. By using empirically plausible estimates for the compensated labor supply elasticity and the shape of skills distribution, we find that the optimal marginal tax rate at the top should be between 33% and 60%, which is in line with the existing rates in the real world.     

Seasonality in the Risk-Return Relationship: Some International Evidence

We report evidence of seasonality in the Fama and MacBeth estimate of the CAPM-based risk premium in four stock exchanges: the NYSE and the London, Paris, and Brussels exchanges. Specifically, we found that, in Belgium and France, risk premia are positive in January and negative the rest of the year. There is no January seasonal in the U.K. risk premium. Instead, we observed in this country a positive April seasonal and a negative average risk premium over the rest of the year. In the U.S., the pattern of risk-premium seasonality coincides with the pattern of stock-return seasonality. Both are positive and significant only in January. We also found that the January risk premium in the U.S. is significantly larger than those observed in the European markets. Interestingly, the reported patterns of risk-premium seasonality in European equity markets do not fully coincide with the observed patterns of stock-return seasonality in these markets. For example, in the U.K., average stock returns are significant and positive in January and April, whereas the market risk premium is significantly positive only in April. A possible interpretation of this phenomenon is presented in the paper.     

Integration vs. Segmentation in the Canadian Stock Market

This paper examines the issue of integration versus segmentation of the Canadian equity market relative to a global North American market. We compare the international and domestic versions of the CAPM, and find that integration, or the mean-variance efficiency of the global market index, is rejected by the data. Segmentation is the preferred model, based on a maximum likelihood procedure correcting for thin trading. We further divide the sample into securities that are interlisted in Canada and the U.S., and those that are not. Integration is rejected for both groups, which indicates that the source of segmentation can be traced to legal barriers based on the nationality of issuing firms.     

FIRM RESTRUCTURING AND THE OPTIMAL SPEED OF TRADE REFORM

We study the consequences and optimality of alternative speedsof trade liberalization when investment (restructuring) activitieshelp firms learn their true level of efficiency and determinesurvival prospects In contrast to the existing literature, wefind that a gradual trade reform might be preferred when authoritiesare more preoccupied with the longer term. We also show thatcosts of business closures have an ambiguous impact on the optimalpace of liberalization.     

Higher Order Expectations in Asset Pricing

We examine formally Keynes' idea that higher order beliefs can drive a wedge between an asset price and its fundamental value based on expected future payoffs. We call this the higher order wedge, which depends on the difference between higher and first order expectations of future payoffs. We analyze the determinants of this wedge and its impact on the equilibrium price in the context of a dynamic noisy rational expectations model. We show that the wedge reduces asset price volatility and disconnects the price from the present value of future payoffs. The impact of the higher order wedge on the equilibrium price can be quantitatively large.