Fewer Fish for Higher Profits? Price Response and Economic Incentives in Global Tuna Fisheries Management

This paper evaluates industry-wide economic incentives arising from changes in product prices in an industry exploiting a common renewable resource (tropical tunas) that is regulated via output limits. Changes in prices alter economic incentives by affecting revenues, profits, conservation, and nonmarket public benefits. Economic incentives in industries exploiting common resources have been examined from multiple angles. However, industry level variation in market prices arising from changes in public regulation has not been explored. We analyse the impact on economic incentives due to changes in output limits and market prices through estimation of ex-vessel price and scale flexibilities for imported skipjack and yellowfin in Thailand’s cannery market. The unitary scale flexibility, estimated from the General Synthetic Inverse Demand Systems, indicates no loss in revenue and even potential profit increases resulting from lower harvest levels that could arise from lower catch limits. However, for a revenue neutral or positive outcome to be achieved, the three inter-governmental tuna Regional Fisheries Management Organizations, which manage the majority of the yellowfin and skipjack tuna in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, would have to coordinate multilaterally to set the catch limits for both species.     

Bernoulli speculator and trading strategy risk

In a continuous‐time model of a complete information economy, we examine the case of a “pure” speculator who chooses to trade only on forward or futures contracts written on interest‐rate‐sensitive instruments. Assuming logarithmic utility, we assess whether his strategy exhibits the same structure as when he uses primitive assets only. It turns out that when interest rates follow stochastic processes, as in the model of Heath, Jarrow, and Morton (1992), where the instantaneous forward rate is driven by an arbitrary number of factors, the speculative trading strategy involving forwards exhibits an extra term vis‐a‐vis the one using futures or primitive assets. This extra term, different from a Merton–Breeden dynamic hedge, is novel and can be interpreted as a hedge against an “endogenous risk,” namely the interest‐rate risk brought about by the optimal trading strategy itself. Thus, only the strategy using futures (or the cash assets themselves) involves a single speculative term, even for the Bernoulli speculator. This result illustrates another major aspect of the marking to market feature that differentiates futures and forwards, and thus has some bearing on the issue of the optimal design of financial contracts. Real financial markets being, in fact, incomplete, the additional “endogenous” risk associated with forwards cannot be hedged perfectly. Since using futures eliminates the latter, risk‐averse agents will find them attractive in relation to forward contracts, other things being equal. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 20: 507–523, 2000     

Mean‐variance efficiency of the market portfolio and futures trading

We derived an intertemporal capital asset pricing model in which the mean‐variance efficiency of the market portfolio is neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition. We obtained this result by modeling a frictionless, continuously open financial market in which nonredundant futures contracts are available for trade, in addition to cash assets. Introducing such contracts modifies the way investors optimally allocate their wealth. Their portfolios then comprise the riskless asset, a perturbed mean‐variance‐efficient portfolio of cash assets, and a perturbed mean‐variance‐efficient portfolio of futures contracts. Furthermore, a (3 + K) mutual fund separation is obtained, with K being the number of economic state variables, in lieu of the usual (2 + K) fund separation. Mean‐variance efficiency of the market portfolio is a necessary condition only when cash assets are the sole traded assets. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 21:329–346, 2001     

On the realized volatility of the ECX CO2 emissions 2008 futures contract: distribution, dynamics and forecasting

This article documents the conditional and unconditional distributions of the realized volatility for the 2008 futures contract in the European climate exchange (ECX), which is valid under the EU emissions trading scheme (EU ETS). Realized volatility measures from naive, kernel-based and subsampling estimators are used to obtain inferences about the distributional and dynamic properties of the ECX emissions futures volatility. The distribution of the daily realized volatility in logarithmic form is shown to be close to normal. The mixture-of-normals hypothesis is strongly rejected, as the returns standardized using daily measures of volatility clearly departs from normality. A simplified HAR-RV model (Corsi in J Financ Econ 7:174–196, 2009) with only a weekly component, which reproduces long memory properties of the series, is then used to model the volatility dynamics. Finally, the predictive accuracy of the HAR-RV model is tested against GARCH specifications using one-step-ahead forecasts, which confirms the HAR-RV superior ability.     

The cost of childhood injury in France

Injuries are a major public health problem worldwide. In the USA, injuries cause 146, 400 deaths annually, with 31 million non-fatal injury visits to emergency departments (EDs). EDs thus represent an important source of injury data. The primary objective of the current study was to describe the epidemiology of injury-related ED visits and assess injury-related utilization of health care resources in an inner-city hospital in Indiana, using data stored in a computerized medical record system. It involved a retrospective review of the records for injury visits to EDs and injury admissions over a 3-year period. The variables extracted and analysed included patients' demographics, external cause of injury, diagnosis, length of stay, ED and hospital charges. A total of 60,470 injury-related ED visits were made, the majority of patients were male (61.6%), uninsured (63.1%), treated in ED and discharged (98.4%). The leading causes of injury were falls (18.8%), motor vehicle crashes (18.4%), assaults (17.6%), being struck (11.2%) and overexertion (10.6). Firearms caused most injury deaths (32.4%; n = 314); motor vehicle crashes were the leading cause of hospitalization (26.6%; n = 642) and also the most expensive to treat as inpatients (mean charge $19,190). The mean charge per patient treated and discharged was $150 compared to $11,116 for patients admitted. These findings demonstrate the value of computerized medical records in capturing and storing E-coded injury data. The system generates data that can be used for epidemiological surveillance and injury prevention at the local level, and for assessment of impact of specific injuries on health care resources.     

Do Ethical Values Work? A Quantitative Study of the Impact of Fair Trade Coffee on Consumer Behavior

This study investigates the large French fair trade (FT) market and the importance of FT coffee within it, in an attempt to identify some general features of FT consumers. On the basis of 7,587 transactions, the authors also determine the impact of FT characteristics on customer behavior. The main result is somewhat surprising: FT coffee purchases seem to involve a temporary commitment as FT coffee consumers appear less loyal than traditional coffee consumers. The authors derive some business and academic implications.     

Valuation of Equity-Linked Insurance and Annuity Products with Binomial Models

Abstract

In this paper we develop a valuation method for equity-linked insurance products. We assume that the premium information of term life insurances, pure endowment insurances, and endowment insurances at all maturities is obtainable within a company or from the insurance market. Using a method similar to that of Jarrow and Turnbull (1995), we derive three martingale probability measures associated with these basic insurance products. These measures are agedependent, include an adjustment for the mortality risk, and reproduce the premiums of the respective insurance products. We then extend the martingale measures to include the financial market information using copulas and use them to evaluate equity-linked insurance contracts and equity-indexed annuities in particular. This is different from the traditional approach under which diversification of mortality risk is assumed. A detailed numerical analysis is performed for various existing equity-indexed annuities in the North American market.     

Evaluating the carbon-macroeconomy relationship: Evidence from threshold vector error-correction and Markov-switching VAR models

This paper studies the nonlinear adjustment between industrial production and carbon prices – coined as ‘the carbon-macroeconomy relationship’ – in the EU 27. We model carbon price returns and industrial production as nonlinear and state-dependent, with dynamics depending on the sign and magnitude of past realization of returns and the growth of industrial production. Our findings show that (i) macroeconomic activity is likely to affect carbon prices with a lag, due to the specific institutional constraints of this environmental market; (ii) the joint dynamics of industrial production and carbon prices seem adequately captured by two-regime threshold vector error-correction and two-regime Markov-switching VAR models compared to linear models as main competitors. The regime-switching models proposed are profoundly checked for their economic content and statistical congruency, and are found to provide a sound statistical framework for a comprehensive analysis of the carbon-macroeconomy relationship.     

On tax competition, public goods provision and jurisdictions' size

In this paper, we analyze competition among jurisdictions to attract foreign capital through low taxes and public inputs that enhance firms' productivity. The competing jurisdictions are different in size and mobility of capital is costly. We find that for moderate mobility costs, small economies can attract foreign capital by supplying higher levels of public goods than larger jurisdictions, without practicing tax undercutting. The classical result that small jurisdictions are attractive because they engage in tax dumping is recovered only for high mobility costs of capital.