Determinants of Firm R&D: The Role of Relationship-Specific Interactions for R&D Spillovers

Research and Development (R&D) is a key component behind technological development and economic growth; therefore, understanding the drivers of R&D is crucial. An interesting question is the role of technology spillovers, transferred by trade, and their impact on firm R&D. Here we analyze not only how international and domestic inter- and intra-industry technology spillovers affect firm R&D but also the relatively unexplored issue of how relationship-specific interactions between buyer and seller affect such spillovers. We find international technology spillovers to be larger and more significant than domestic inter- and intra-industry spillovers. Moreover, relationship-specific interactions between seller and buyer enhance technology spillovers in general and international spillovers in particular.     

Does information drive trading in option strategies?

We study trading in option strategies in the FTSE-100 index market. Trades in option strategies represent around 37% of the total number of trades and over 75% of the total trading volume in our sample. We find some evidence that order flow in volatility–sensitive option strategies contains information about future realized volatility. We do not find evidence that order flow in directionally–sensitive option strategies contains information about future returns. Overall, our evidence suggests that option strategies are used both by traders who possess non-public information about future volatility and by uninformed speculators who appear to follow unprofitable trend chasing strategies.     

Democratic revolutions as institutional innovation diffusion: Rapid adoption and survival of democracy

Recent ‘democratic revolutions’ in Islamic countries call for a re-consideration of transitions to and from democracy. Transitions to democracy have often been considered the outcome of socio-economic modernization and therefore slow and incremental processes. But as a recent study has made clear, in the last century, transitions to democracy have mainly occurred through rapid leaps rather than slow and incremental steps. Here, we therefore apply an innovation and systems perspective and consider transitions to democracy as processes of institutional, and therefore systemic, innovation adoption. We show that transitions to democracy starting before 1900 lasted for an average of 50 years and a median of 56 years, while transitions originating later took an average of 4.6 years and a median of 1.7 years. However, our results indicate that the survival time of democratic regimes is longer in cases where the transition periods have also been longer, suggesting that patience paid in previous democratizations. We identify a critical ‘consolidation-preparing’ transition period of 12 years. Our results also show that in cases where the transitions have not been made directly from autocracy to democracy, there are no main institutional paths towards democracy. Instead, democracy seems reachable from a variety of directions. This is in line with the analogy of diffusion of innovations at the nation systems level, for which assumptions are that potential adopter systems may vary in susceptibility over time. The adoption of the institutions of democracy therefore corresponds to the adoption of a new political communications standard for a nation, in this case the innovation of involving in principle all adult citizens on an equal basis.     

Asymptotics for LS,GLS, and feasible GLS statistics in an AR(1) model with conditional heteroskedasticity

We consider a first-order autoregressive model with conditionally heteroskedastic innovations. The asymptotic distributions of least squares (LS), infeasible generalized least squares (GLS), and feasible GLS estimators and $t$ statistics are determined. The GLS procedures allow for misspecification of the form of the conditional heteroskedasticity and, hence, are referred to as quasi-GLS procedures. The asymptotic results are established for drifting sequences of the autoregressive parameter ${\rho }_n$ and the distribution of the time series of innovations. In particular, we consider the full range of cases in which ${\rho }_n$ satisfies $n(1?{\rho }_n)\to \infty$ and $n(1?{\rho }_n)\to h_1\in [0,\infty )$ as $n\to \infty$, where $n$ is the sample size. Results of this type are needed to establish the uniform asymptotic properties of the LS and quasi-GLS statistics.     

Labelling fashion markets

The present article discusses how an ethical and environmental labelling system can be implemented in fashion garment markets. Consumers act in markets that provide them with more information than their limited cognitive capacity allows them to handle. Ethical and environmental labelling in markets characterized by change, such as the fashion garment market, makes decision‐making even more complicated. The ethical and environmental labelling system proposed here is designed to alleviate firms' administrative burden and give consumers more choice. It proposes that information on ethical and environmentally friendly production should be combined to enable consumers to decide whether they want to contribute an extra sum for the item they purchase in the store, which would then be transferred to the workers or an environmental organization. The beneficiaries – garment workers in developing countries and environmental organizations – would decide what to do with the money. This is a simpler and more direct solution than those suggested by scholars and activists trying to solve the problems of ‘sweatshops’ and the environmental consequences of the production of fashion garments. It also reduces administration compared with existing systems. At the same time, it can be implemented alongside systems based on strict regulation of production.     

Adverse Selection and Competitive Market Making: Empirical Evidence from a Limit Order Market

This article presents a new methodology for testing economicrestrictions on the price schedules offered in a limit orderbook that are based on (i) break-even conditions for marginallimit orders and (ii) rational updating conditions for orderbook revisions over time. Using order flow data from the StockholmStock Exchange, I find strong evidence of insufficient depthin the limit order books relative to the theoretical predictions.An extended model, which allows the model parameters to dependon market conditions, captures some of the systematic variationin the observed order book depth.     

Social Behaviour in Work Absence*

By making use of a large‐scale randomized experiment, we test whether social behaviour is important for work absence due to illness. The individuals treated in the experiment were exposed to less monitoring of their eligibility to collect sickness insurance benefits, which sharply increased their non‐monitored work absence. This exogenous variation is exploited in two complementary analyses. In both analyses, we find significant social‐behaviour effects. Using detailed data, we conclude that the social‐behaviour effects most likely stem from fairness concerns.     

MOSES: Model for studying the economy of Sweden

MOSES is an aggregate econometric model for Sweden, estimated on quarterly data, and intended for policy simulations and short-term forecasting. After a presentation of qualitative model properties, the econometric methodology is summarized. The model properties, within sample simulations, and forecast evaluations are presented. We also address methodology and practical issues relating to building and maintaining a macro model of this type. The detailed econometric equations are reported in Appendix A.“I think it should be generally agreed that a model that does not generate many properties of actual data cannot be claimed to have any ‘policy implications’…”Clive.W. J. Granger (1992, p. 4).     

From mornings to evenings: is there variation in shopping behaviour between different hours of the day?

The consumer movement preferences data have traditionally been collected through more or less subjective methods, such as panel interviews, camera tracking and in‐store observation. Modern technology makes it possible also to use more objective methods. In this paper different data‐collecting methods were compared. One method, wireless local area network (WLAN) was tested and used in identification purposes. The empirical data were collected from a large Do‐It‐Yourself store. The most popular departments and sections of the store were explored from the standpoint of different times of a day. The WLAN technology proved to be useful, reliable and objective. The empirical test results show that consumer behaviour varies depending on the time of the day.     

Generalized empirical likelihood tests in time series models with potential identification failure

We introduce test statistics based on generalized empirical likelihood methods that can be used to test simple hypotheses involving the unknown parameter vector in moment condition time series models. The test statistics generalize those in Guggenberger and Smith [2005. Generalized empirical likelihood estimators and tests under partial, weak and strong identification. Econometric Theory 21 (4), 667–709] from the i.i.d. to the time series context and are alternatives to those in Kleibergen [2005a. Testing parameters in GMM without assuming that they are identified. Econometrica 73 (4), 1103–1123] and Otsu [2006. Generalized empirical likelihood inference for nonlinear and time series models under weak identification. Econometric Theory 22 (3), 513–527]. The main feature of these tests is that their empirical null rejection probabilities are not affected much by the strength or weakness of identification. More precisely, we show that the statistics are asymptotically distributed as chi-square under both classical asymptotic theory and weak instrument asymptotics of Stock and Wright [2000. GMM with weak identification. Econometrica 68 (5), 1055–1096]. We also introduce a modification to Otsu's (2006) statistic that is computationally more attractive. A Monte Carlo study reveals that the finite-sample performance of the suggested tests is very competitive.