HOW BELIEFS ABOUT HIV STATUS AFFECT RISKY BEHAVIORS: EVIDENCE FROM MALAWI

This paper examines how beliefs about own HIV status affect decisions to engage in risky sexual behavior, as measured by having extramarital sex and/or multiple sex partners. The empirical analysis is based on a panel survey of males from the 2006 and 2008 rounds of the Malawi Diffusion and Ideational Change Project (MDICP). The paper develops a behavioral model of the belief‐risky behavior relationship and estimates the causal effect of beliefs on risky behavior using the Arellano and Carrasco (2003) semiparametric panel data estimator, which accommodates both unobserved heterogeneity and belief endogeneity arising from a possible dependence of current beliefs on past risky behavior. Results show that downward revisions in the belief assigned to being HIV positive increase risky behavior and upward revisions decrease it. For example, based on a linear specification, a decrease in the perceived probability of being HIV positive from 10 to 0 percentage points increases the probability of engaging in risky behavior (extramarital affairs) from 8.3 to 14.1 percentage points. We also develop and implement a modified version of the Arellano and Carrasco (2003) estimator to allow for misreporting of risky behavior and find estimates to be robust to a range of plausible misreporting levels. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Applied Econometrics published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Impact of Team Cognitive Styles on Performance of Radical and Incremental NPD Projects

Although prior studies increased our understanding of the performance implications of new product development (NPD) team members' functional backgrounds and demographic variables, they remained relatively silent on the impact of underlying psychological characteristics such as the team members' cognitive styles on project performance. The goal of this study is to explore the effects of NPD teams' cognitive styles on project performance in different kinds of NPD projects. Based on survey data from members of 95 NPD teams gathered in four Dutch manufacturing companies, hypotheses about the relationships between teams' cognitive styles and project performance of radical and incremental NPD projects are tested. Results of linear regression analyses show that the level of teams' analytical information processing positively affects project performance in both incremental and radical NPD projects, whereas the relationship between the level of teams' intuitive information processing and project performance depends on the radicalness of the project. These findings contribute to the academic discussion on team innovation, suggesting that, next to demographic and functional characteristics, cognitive styles in teams also significantly influence project performance.     

A Bayesian analysis of market information linkages among NAFTA countries using a multivariate stochastic volatility model

NAFTA has arguably been the most important and elaborate free-trade agreement in history, providing a blueprint for potential new agreements. So far, the evidence is mixed as to whether NAFTA has been successful in terms of its economic impact. We fit a multivariate stochastic volatility model that directly measures financial information linkages across the three participating countries in a trivariate setting. The model detects significant changes in information linkages across the countries from the pre- to post-NAFTA period with a high degree of reliability. This has implications not only for measuring these linkages but also for hedging and portfolio diversification policies. An MCMC procedure is used to fit the model, and the accuracy and robustness of the method is confirmed by simulations.     

Elektroautos in einer von erneuerbaren Energien geprägten Energiewirtschaft

The German Federal Government wants to establish Germany as a leading market for electric mobility. Potential environmental benefits and changes in the economic framework conditions of the energy sector are described in this paper. In order to quantify the electricity split which is actually used for charging electric vehicles, two economic models for the energy sector, a model for the market penetration of electric vehicles, a vehicle model and an LCA model are brought together. Based on an assumed dynamic increase of electric vehicles to 12 million in 2030, an additional electricity demand of about 18 TWh is calculated. If the vehicles are charged directly after their last daily trip, the peak load increases by 12%—despite the small increase in electricity demand. First model calculations for the development of the European power generation system show that the direct impact on the construction of new power plants remains low even until 2030. An impact of electric mobility on CO₂ certificate prices can only be seen from 2025 onwards and is limited to an increase in certificate prices by a maximum of 8 % in 2030. An optimisation is possible with intelligent charging strategies: The peak load without demand side management can be reduced by 5 GW and about 600 GWh of additional wind energy can used which would otherwise have been throttled due to feed-in management—about 3.5 % of the total electricity demand of electric vehicles. On the other hand, demand side management leads to more coal power plants instead of gas power plants being used to meet the additional electricity demand. If additional renewable sources are installed along with demand side management, the electricity for electric vehicles is almost carbon free. This is also reflected in the life cycle balance of electric vehicles which also includes vehicle and battery production: With today’s average electricity split in Germany, the greenhouse gas emissions of electric vehicles are about comparable to vehicles with conventional combustion engines. However, the electricity split in 2030 or the use of additional renewable energy sources lead to a significant advantage in the greenhouse gas balance.     

Structural ambidexterity in NPD processes: A firm-level assessment of the impact of differentiated structures on innovation performance

Based on a survey study of 155 U.S. firms, we conducted a firm-level assessment of the impact of different kinds of structures (i.e., functional versus cross-functional) in different kinds of new product development (NPD) processes (i.e., incremental versus radical) on different kinds of firm innovation performance (i.e., derivative versus breakthrough). We observe that most firms opt for similar structures for their incremental and radical NPD processes. At the same time, though, we find strong evidence that (1) firms that apply a cross-functional structure for the radical NPD process perform significantly better in terms of breakthrough innovation performance than firms that apply a functional structure for the radical NPD process and (2) firms that apply a functional structure for the incremental NPD process perform significantly better in terms of derivative innovation performance than firms that apply a cross-functional structure for the incremental NPD process. These latter findings point to the relevance of adopting structural ambidexterity, where firms make an explicit distinction between incremental and radical NPD processes and organize them in a different way.     

Socialism and Intrafirm Asset Allocation

We rely on a survey of Swiss firms to document deviation from first‐best for reasons of internal ‘fairness’ when allocating resources. This ‘socialist’ practice is more widespread in smaller than in larger firms. It ignores the reputation and past performance of the managers who apply for funding, but takes into account their hierarchical position and their past use of resources. Socialism is only partially explained by concerns about empire building and managerial optimism, and it is not meant to benefit shareholders.     

How diversity contributes to academic research teams performance

The objective of this paper is to analyse how the job-related diversity in academic research teams influences their scientific performance. To achieve that objective, an empirical study of a university's research teams was carried out during the years 2006–2009. The results reflect a non-significant effect of functional diversity on research teams' performance, whereas status diversity affects in a positive and significant way. However, educational diversity has a significant negative impact when a certain threshold is exceeded. The effect of institutional diversity presents an inverted U-shaped relation with the number of published articles by the research teams. The results reveal that the relationship between diversity and research performance may not be a simple and direct one because its effect could depend on the organisational context and the type of diversity attributes.     

Small firm innovation performance and employee involvement

It is known that small firms rely mainly on the CEO’s individual knowledge for developing innovations. Recent work suggests that this approach is inefficient since it underutilizes other employees’ knowledge. We study to which extent using CEOs, managers and non-managerial employees’ ideas enhances small firms’ innovation performance. A Heckman selection model on 305 small firms shows that not only CEO’s and managers’, but also non-managerial employees’ ideas contribute to innovation performance. However, contributions depend heavily on the individuals’ area of expertise and on whether product or process innovation is desired. Our findings enrich the current view on the entrepreneurial team, but also warn against the implementation of one-size-fits-all employee involvement programs in small firms.     

Three aspects of the Swiss term structure: an empirical survey

The term structure is an important transmitter of, and indicator for, monetary policy. This paper studies the Swiss term structure using monthly data from 1989 to 2005. We study the impact of the new monetary policy strategy that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) adopted at the beginning of 2000 on three aspects of the term structure. First, we test the expectations hypothesis and find it confirmed at the short end of the yield curve. At the long end, time-varying term premia seem present. Second, we ask whether the yield curve contains information regarding future inflation and economic activity. We find that a steepening of the yield curve predicted an increase in economic activity in the short term before the change in policy strategy, but not thereafter. Third, we study the contemporaneous reaction of the term structure to macroeconomic conditions and conclude that the SNB’s commitment to stabilizing inflation may have become more credible after the change in the monetary policy strategy.