Poverty and Political Risk

The paper explains the negative correlation between developing countries' per capita incomes and measures of political risk by relating a government's decision to tax foreign investors to distributional interests in the host country's population. Using a dynamic general-equilibrium model in which agents make irreversible investments abroad to insure against country-specific technology shocks, it is shown that the political risk for foreign investors is prohibitive if the host country's initial per capita income is too low and if the benefits of international diversification are not high enough to generate a sufficiently strong opposition against discriminatory taxation.     

Cartel Stability and Economic Integration

This paper revisits the notion that economic integration—modeled as a reduction of trade costs—may be anticompetitive, in the sense that it may reinforce the ability of an international cartel to maintain a collusive understanding about staying out of each other’s markets. The paper is novel in terms of introducing ad valorem and fixed trade costs in addition to the customary unit trade costs. It is shown that an anticompetitive effect, found for reductions in unit trade costs, may disappear once trade costs are ad valorem or fixed.     

Disagreement about inflation and the yield curve

We show that inflation disagreement, not just expected inflation, has an impact on nominal interest rates. In contrast to expected inflation, which mainly affects the wedge between real and nominal yields, inflation disagreement affects nominal yields predominantly through its impact on the real side of the economy. We show theoretically and empirically that inflation disagreement raises real and nominal yields and their volatilities. Inflation disagreement is positively related to consumers’ cross-sectional consumption growth volatility and trading in fixed income securities. Calibrating our model to disagreement, inflation, and yields reproduces the economically significant impact of inflation disagreement on yield curves.     

Consistent recalibration of yield curve models

The analytical tractability of affine (short rate) models, such as the Vasi?ek and the Cox–Ingersoll–Ross (CIR) models, has made them a popular choice for modeling the dynamics of interest rates. However, in order to properly account for the dynamics of real data, these models must exhibit time‐dependent or even stochastic parameters. This breaks their tractability, and modeling and simulating become an arduous task. We introduce a new class of Heath–Jarrow–Morton (HJM) models that both fit the dynamics of real market data and remain tractable. We call these models consistent recalibration (CRC) models. CRC models appear as limits of concatenations of forward rate increments, each belonging to a Hull–White extended affine factor model with possibly different parameters. That is, we construct HJM models from “tangent” affine models. We develop a theory for continuous path versions of such models and discuss their numerical implementations within the Vasi?ek and CIR frameworks.     

Tweets and Trades: the Information Content of Stock Microblogs

Microblogging forums (e.g., Twitter) have become a vibrant online platform for exchanging stock‐related information. Using methods from computational linguistics, we analyse roughly 250,000 stock‐related messages (so‐called tweets) on a daily basis. We find an association between tweet sentiment and stock returns, message volume and trading volume, as well as disagreement and volatility. In contrast to previous related research, we also analyse the mechanism leading to an efficient aggregation of information in microblogging forums. Our results demonstrate that users providing above average investment advice are retweeted (i.e., quoted) more often and have more followers, which amplifies their share of voice.     

Incentive effects of funding contracts: an experiment

We examine the incentive effects of funding contracts on entrepreneurial effort and on allocative efficiency. We experiment with funding contracts that differ in the structure of investor repayment and, thus, in their incentives for the provision of entrepreneurial effort. Theoretically the replacement of a standard debt contract by a repayment-equivalent non-monotonic contract reduces effort distortions and increases efficiency. Likewise, distortions can be mitigated by replacing outside equity by a repayment-equivalent standard-debt contract. We test both hypotheses in the laboratory. Our results reveal that the incentive effects of funding contracts must be experienced before they are reflected in observed behavior. With sufficient experience, observed behavior is either consistent with or close to theoretical predictions and supports both hypotheses. If we allow for entrepreneur-sided manipulations of project outcomes, we find that non-monotonic contracts lose much of their appeal.     

Fördert Primary Nursing die Salutogenese?

Betriebliche Gesundheitsf?rderung durch ein Pflegemodell? — Der aktuelle Fachkr?ftemangel in der Pflege zwingt Unternehmen der Gesundheitswirtschaft, als Arbeitgeber attraktiv zu sein. Dazu geh?rt auch, alles dafür zu tun, dass die Arbeitnehmer gesund bleiben. Vor diesem Hintergrund untersuchte Philipp Tessin das Pflegekonzept „Primary Nursing“ auf m?gliche salutogene Eigenschaften.     

Should I stay or should I go? Career choice intentions of students with family business background

Personal and motivational patterns of intentional founders have been researched in great depth; however, antecedents to career choices of intentional successors have been conspicuously missing in entrepreneurship research. By drawing on theory of planned behavior, we investigate how intentional founders, successors, and employees differ in terms of locus of control and entrepreneurial self-efficacy as well as independence and innovation motives. We find that transitive likelihood of career intent depends on degree of entrepreneurial self-efficacy and the independence motive. Unexpectedly, we see that high levels of internal locus of control lead to a preference of employment, which challenges traditional entrepreneurship research and suggests that the feasibility of an entrepreneurial career path does not automatically make it desirable. Our findings suggest that students with family business background are pessimistic about being in control in an entrepreneurial career, but optimistic about their efficacy to pursue an entrepreneurial career.