The norm game: punishing enemies and not friends

Three mean field models of the norm game are explored analytically. The strategies are: to obey the norm or not and to punish those who break it or not. The punishment, the temptation, the anger and the punishment cost are modeled by four parameters; for the fixed points, only two ratios of these parameters are relevant. For each model, we consider its variant with two mutually punishing groups. We show that all solutions are the same as for the case in one group. This means in particular, that in both groups the amount of defectors is the same.     

Three dual regression schemes for the Lukacs theorem

In the paper we study regressional versions of Lukacs' characterization of the gamma law. We consider constancy of regression instead of Lukacs' independence condition in three new schemes. Up to now the constancy of regressions of U=X/(X + Y) given V=X + Y for independent X and Y has been considered in the literature. Here we are concerned with constancy of regressions for X and Y while independence of U and V is assumed instead.     

{\varvec{P}}-value model selection criteria for exponential families of increasing dimension

Let $\mathcal{M }_{\underline{i}}$ be an exponential family of densities on $[0,1]$ pertaining to a vector of orthonormal functions $b_{\underline{i}}=(b_{i_1}(x),\ldots ,b_{i_p}(x))^\mathbf{T}$ and consider a problem of estimating a density $f$ belonging to such family for unknown set ${\underline{i}}\subset \{1,2,\ldots ,m\}$ , based on a random sample $X_1,\ldots ,X_n$ . Pokarowski and Mielniczuk (2011) introduced model selection criteria in a general setting based on p-values of likelihood ratio statistic for $H_0: f\in \mathcal{M }_0$ versus $H_1: f\in \mathcal{M }_{\underline{i}}\setminus \mathcal{M }_0$ , where $\mathcal{M }_0$ is the minimal model. In the paper we study consistency of these model selection criteria when the number of the models is allowed to increase with a sample size and $f$ ultimately belongs to one of them. The results are then generalized to the case when the logarithm of $f$ has infinite expansion with respect to $(b_i(\cdot ))_1^\infty $ . Moreover, it is shown how the results can be applied to study convergence rates of ensuing post-model-selection estimators of the density with respect to Kullback–Leibler distance. We also present results of simulation study comparing small sample performance of the discussed selection criteria and the post-model-selection estimators with analogous entities based on Schwarz’s rule as well as their greedy counterparts.     

Rhetorical aspects of tour guiding: the Polish case

ABSTRACT

Tour guides are a significant group of stakeholders in the tourism industry. They are responsible for the quality of communication during excursions and ultimately determine the level of satisfaction of tour participants. Therefore, they use a particular language and ways of influencing tourists. This paper investigates whether the particular language of guides contains persuasive means that are crucial for building an effective interpersonal communication. The authors focused on the question of how guides try to create positive relationships with guided groups. They conducted an examination on a group of Wroc?aw city guides during guided walking city tours. In order to complete the research project, qualitative non-participant observation and rhetorical analysis of audio-visual recordings of the guided tours were carried out. This study enabled the key areas of city guides’ communication influence to be specified, and it highlighted deficiencies in their use of some persuasive means. The results may serve as guidelines for improving the communication skills of tourism practitioners.     

A fractionally cointegrated VAR analysis of economic voting and political support

We use a fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive model to examine the relationship between Canadian political support and macroeconomic conditions. This model is well suited for the analysis because it allows multiple fractional time series and admits simple asymptotic inference for the model parameters and tests of the hypotheses of interest. In the long‐run equilibrium, we find that support for the Progressive Conservative Party was higher during periods of high interest rates and low unemployment, while support for the Liberal Party was higher during periods of low interest rates and high unemployment. We also test and reject the notion that party support is driven only by relative (to the United States) economic performance. Indeed, our findings suggest that US macroeconomic variables do not enter the long‐run equilibrium of Canadian economic voting (political opinion poll support) at all.     

R&D Investments in Markets with Network Effects

We consider process R&D investments of firms in markets with network effects and incomplete product compatibility. Our results indicate that network effects increase the firms’ individual investments in R&D. The presence of network effects weakens the positive impact of R&D cooperation on firms’ R&D investments. Further, we show that R&D competition can bring socially optimal level of investment, and this is not possible in markets without network effects. Finally, our results suggest that innovation policy oriented at promoting R&D cooperation between enterprises can be counterproductive in markets with network effects and incomplete product compatibility.

     

The power of social mobilisation: The impact of monitoring the 2015 presidential elections in Poland

In recent years we have observed an increased engagement of citizen’s movements with elections in democratic polities. Yet our understanding of the influence that this engagement can have over elections is still rather limited. In this paper we study electoral consequences of citizens’ involvement in monitoring 2015 presidential elections in Poland. Our analysis provides strong support for arguments saying that watchdog organisations may have an important influence on electoral outcomes. Our findings suggest that in municipalities in which election observers were present the share of vote for an incumbent candidate, Bronis?aw Komorowski, was significantly lower than in municipalities where the watchdog organisation did not have its representatives. Our results are robust to several tests which allows us to argue that the effect we find should not be attributed to some unobservable factors.     

Legal Regulation of the Obligation of Employers to Provide Social Support to Employees in the Polish Legal System

The aim of the article is to present the Polish legal regulations concerning the obligation of social support to employees by employers, including the rich axiological layer having its source not only in socialist history of this country, but also in the legal principles expressed in the current Constitution. This issue may be interesting and inspiring in particular for people who, in order to better protect employees, support broader state interference in the market economy. The abovementioned obligation was regulated by the Polish legislator by the Act (and therefore for many employers is imperative) and formulated very widely (on both the objective and subjective scope). For this reason, Polish labor law, to the extent presented in this article, is in many ways unusual, compared to other legal systems, but it seems that it is still not known to a wider group of specialists dealing with labor law in capitalist countries. The paper also presents the analysis of the specific legislative solutions within the scope of the topic; for example the role of trade unions in the process of disbursement of funds from the social fund. The whole discussion is complemented by a consideration of the implementation of the social obligation to support workers by employers on the example of University in Szczecin (one of the largest universities in Poland).     

Forecasting crude oil prices with DSGE models

In this study, we conducted an oil prices forecasting competition among a set of structural models, including vector autoregression and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Our results highlight two principles. First, forecasts should exploit the fact that real oil prices are mean reverting over long horizons. Second, models should not replicate the high volatility of the oil prices observed in samples. By following these principles, we show that an oil sector DSGE model performs much better at real oil price forecasting than random walk or vector autoregression.     

How should firms selectively hedge? Resolving the selective hedging puzzle

We provide a model of intertemporal hedging consistent with selective hedging, a widespread practice corroborated by recent empirical studies. We argue that the optimal hedge is a value hedge involving total current value of future earnings. More importantly, the hedging decision is independent of risk preferences of the firm or agent. Our closed-form solutions imply several implications for the risk management policy in a firm. In order to lock in profits a hedge increase is recommended in favorable states of nature, while in bad states the firm should decrease the hedge and wait. Our main new empirical implication is that selective hedging should be more prevalent in industries where managers are exposed to convex cash flow structures and are more likely to “value hedge” their exposures.