The effects of monetary policy in a small open economy: the case of Portugal

In this article, I analyse the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy on the Portuguese economy. I show that a positive interest rate shock leads to: (i) a contraction of real GDP and a substantial increase of the unemployment rate; (ii) a quick fall in the commodity price and a gradual decrease of the price level and (iii) a downward correction of the stock price index. It also produces a ‘short-lived liquidity effect’ and helps explain the negative comovement between bonds and stocks. In addition, I find evidence suggesting the existence of a money demand function characterized by small output and interest rate elasticities. By its turn, the central bank’s policy rule follows closely the dynamics of the money markets. Finally, both the real GDP and the price level in Portugal would have been higher during almost the entire sample period if there were no monetary policy surprises.     

FISCAL POLICY AND ASSET PRICES

We analyse the impact of fiscal policy on asset prices using a panel vector auto‐regressive (PVAR) approach and quarterly data for ten industrialized countries. We find that positive fiscal shocks lead to a temporary fall in stock prices and a gradual and persistent decrease in housing prices. The empirical findings also point to: (i) a contractionary effect of fiscal policy on output in line with the existence of crowding‐out effects and the deterioration of credit conditions; (ii) a weakening of the effectiveness of fiscal policy in recent times; (iii) a more persistent response of asset prices for countries with a lower degree of openness; (iv) a larger impact of fiscal policy on asset prices for small countries; (v) a close link between the responsiveness of asset prices to fiscal policy and the government’s size; (vi) an increase of the sensitivity of asset prices to fiscal policy shocks following the process of financial deregulation and mortgage liberalization; and (vii) significant fiscal multiplier effects in the context of severe housing busts. Finally, the evidence suggests that changes in equity prices may help governments towards consolidation of public finances.     

Assessing performance in services: the travel agency industry

The aim of this article is to compare different approaches to the evaluation of economic performance in tourism. For the first time in tourism, this article simultaneously applies traditional productivity measures as well as parametric and non-parametric techniques to estimate efficiency and compares the results obtained. The empirical application is carried out on a sample of 567 travel agencies operating in Spain in 2004. The results reveal important differences depending on the methodology employed. Overall, none of the methodologies can be said to be better than the rest. These results highlight the importance of considering different approaches when evaluating performance in tourism.     

Different Approaches to the Evaluation of Performance in Retailing

Abstract

The aim of this article is to compare different approaches to the evaluation of economic performance in retailing. For the first time in retailing, this essay simultaneously applies traditional productivity measures as well as parametric and non-parametric techniques to estimate efficiency, and compares the results obtained. The empirical application is carried out on a sample of 491 retailers operating in Spain in 2004. The results reveal important differences depending on the methodology employed. Overall, none of the methodologies can be said to be better than the rest.     

Austerity measures in crisis countries — results and impact on mid-term development

Since the onset of the sovereign debt crisis, the crisis-stricken countries in Europe have been pushed to take drastic steps to consolidate their finances and reduce their budget deficits. Despite strong public opposition and largely damaging short-run effects, the countries have undertaken many of the internationally recommended/mandated reforms and spending cuts. In this Forum, authors from Greece, Ireland, Italy, Spain and Portugal report on the fiscal consolidation achieved in their respective countries — and the sacrifices that have made it possible. Furthermore, the authors detail what remains to be done to resolve the crisis.     

Efficient propagation of shocks and the optimal return on money

We study optimal allocations in an environment in which money is essential due to lack of commitment and anonymity of individuals. Because the economy features aggregate preference shocks, we apply a notion of implementability that allows for allocations with non-trivial business-cycle dynamics for the propagation of shocks. We show that history dependence is predicted by the theory of second best and becomes necessary for optimality when the degree of patience is neither too low nor too high. Our analysis concludes with a discussion of whether there is a role for the propagation of shocks in alternative economic environments.     

Influence of institutional environment on entrepreneurial intention: a comparative study of two countries university students

Institutional environment influences the perceptions of desirability and feasibility, society’s social and cultural environment, such as beliefs, values and attitudes, conditions behaviour and decisions made by individuals. This research evaluates the influence of institutional environment on entrepreneurial intention using a comparative analysis of different attitudes among university students in two countries: Portugal and Spain. In particular, this study aims to examine the perceptions of desirability, feasibility and intention toward the creation of one’s own business and how that variables influence the entrepreneurial intention as compared these two different institutional contexts. Results revealed difference among attitudes toward entrepreneurship in both countries. With respect to the perception of feasibility, the majority of students in Extremadura (Spain) consider that it is easier to create a business in nowadays than it was several decades ago. However, from the students of Beira Interior (Portugal) consider that it is more difficult. Furthermore, in Extremadura, the entrepreneurial intention is higher than in Beira Interior.     

The contribution of holiday trips to life satisfaction: the case of people with disabilities

This study analyses the contribution of holiday trips to the life satisfaction (LS) of people with disabilities as compared to people without disabilities. Particular attention is paid to the effects of the intensity of taking part in holiday trips on LS. We are interested in testing two different hypotheses: (a) holiday trips increase individuals' LS and (b) the effects of holiday trips on LS are different for people without and with disabilities, being greater for this latter group. Using longitudinal data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we estimate LS equations (running generalised least square random-effects models) for people without and with disabilities which include a set of variables measuring participation or not in holiday trips and its intensity. Although people with disabilities are less likely to participate in holiday trips than people without disabilities, the results indicate that people with disabilities obtain higher levels of LS than people without disabilities from their participation in holiday trips, especially when this participation is more intense. Policy-makers and the tourism industry must promote and facilitate full access and participation of people with disabilities in holiday trips by eliminating all barriers, understanding their differential needs and providing an inclusive leisure environment.     

A Negotiation Model for Inducing Higher Service in a Distribution Channel

This paper analyzes, in the context of negotiation, the problem of coordination and conflict resolution between the manufacturer (Seller) and the retailers (Buyers) for a two-tier inventory system. The retailers capture demand (from customers) and therefore are responsible for the level of service offered by the system. The larger the inventory that a retailer has of a particular product, the lower the probability of running out of stock and therefore, avoid the possibility of a lost sale for the manufacturer. A conflict arises (and therefore the negotiation process starts) when the manufacturer wants the retailer to increase the level of service while retailers are satisfied with the status quo. Using the Nash bargaining solution, we develop a theoretical framework that incorporates behavioral dimensions and predicts the outcome of “sharing” the profit. The results indicate the advantage of developing long term relationships among the members of the distribution channel to minimize the uncertainty and therefore the source of conflict.