The transmission of partner mental health to individual life satisfaction: Estimates from a longitudinal household survey

This paper investigates the relationship between partner's mental health and individual life satisfaction, using panel data and calculating the monetary valuation of mental illness. Accounting for measurement error and endogeneity of income, partners' mental health has a significant association with individual well-being. The additional income needed to compensate someone living with a partner with a mental condition is substantial (ranges between USD 33,000 and USD 50,000). Further, individuals do not show adaptation to partners' mental illness. The results have implications for policy-makers wishing to value the effects of policies that aim to impact on mental health and levels of well-being.     

Financial Education Interventions Targeting Immigrants and Children of Immigrants: Results from a Randomized Control Trial

We document that immigrants in the United States differ from natives in several aspects relevant for their financial decision making. Based on these differences, we designed novel financial education materials targeted at US immigrants and their children and evaluated their effectiveness using a randomized control trial. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first rigorous evaluation of financial education programs targeted at this population. Compared to a control group, the groups that received the one‐time educational intervention were more likely to correctly answer financial knowledge questions immediately after the intervention. The estimated effects of this one‐time intervention on knowledge were large, but most of them faded away after six months. Moreover, we find little effect of the treatments on intended financial behavior measures, both immediately and six months later. Our results point to the efficacy of this type of educational material in informing immigrants and their children about important financial information that they are unfamiliar with, including information related to their immigrant status. However, they also suggest that a priority for future research should be to test whether repeated opportunities for learning can increase financial knowledge retention and lead to behavior change.     

The Trade Competitiveness of Southern Emerging Economies: A Multidimensional Approach Through Cluster Analysis

This paper investigates the trade competitiveness of the new emerging Southern economies – China, India, Brazil and South Africa (CIBS) – with respect to their main global partners. Starting from the commonly held view that countries with trade patterns similar to those of emerging countries are likely to suffer losses, we propose a multidimensional approach based on cluster analysis, both crisp and fuzzy, as an alternative strategy for assessing similarity in global trade patterns. On the basis of key trade characteristics drawn from the diverse strands of trade theory, we assess the relative position of CIBS within global trade patterns and their evolution over time. Unlike previous studies, our results do not support the hypothesis of the presence of a competitiveness threat from Southern emerging countries towards the main industrialised economies.     

A Comparison of Consensus and BVAR Macroeconomic Forecasts

This paper provides a one-month-ahead, macroeconomic, Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) forecasting approach that offers several advantages over conventional short-term forecasting procedures. In particular, it produces more accurate forecasts than the Bloomberg consensus forecasts, on average, for 20 major macroeconomic variables. In addition to a quantitative comparison of BVAR and Bloomberg consensus forecast, the paper focuses on five important areas of macroeconomic forecasting: the role of short-term macroeconomic forecasting, the importance of a robust forecasting approach, the importance of timing of data releases, forecast evaluation criteria, and the importance of changing model specifications as conditions warrant.     

Does intellectual monopoly stimulate or stifle innovation?

This study develops an R&D-based growth model with vertical and horizontal innovation to shed some light on the current debate on whether patent protection stimulates or stifles innovation. We analyze the effects of patent protection in the form of blocking patents. We show that patent protection changes the direction of innovation by having asymmetric effects on vertical innovation (i.e., quality improvement) and horizontal innovation (i.e., variety expansion). Calibrating the model and simulating transition dynamics, we find that strengthening the effect of blocking patents stifles vertical innovation and decreases economic growth but increases social welfare due to an increase in horizontal innovation. In light of this finding, we argue that in order to properly analyze the growth and welfare implications of patents, it is important to consider their often neglected compositional effects on vertical and horizontal innovation.     

A system approach for measuring the euro area NAIRU

This paper addresses the issue of measuring the NAIRU for the euro area and assessing the robustness and precision of the obtained estimates. The empirical framework adopted is based on systems combining an Okun-type relationship between cyclical unemployment and the output gap with a Phillips curve and stochastic laws of motion for the NAIRU and potential output. Such systems have been estimated using Kalman-filter techniques. The results obtained point to an estimate of the area-wide NAIRU that is robust to changes in the underlying models. This robustness is shown to hold both in terms of the mean – i.e., the shape of the resulting NAIRU – and the variance of the process. The latter is derived through bootstrap exercises using the models alone or pooled together. The evidence found suggests that the increase in the aggregate NAIRU that took place in the early part of the sample period has come to a halt and may be about to be reversed.Jel classification: C11, C15, E31, E32The opinions expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Institutions they belong to. The authors are grateful to Per Jansson for providing parts of the econometric RATS code and to Gonzalo Camba-Mendez and Frank Smets of the ECB for useful comments. Comments and recommendations by two anonimous referees are also gratefully acnowledged. All the remaining errors are the authors responsibility. All correspondence to Ricardo Mestre.First version received: January 2002/Final version received December 2002     

Kognitive Dissonanz »Revisited«

Using the theory of cognitive dissonance, this study investigates whether users of an online magazine prefer contents that agrees to their attitudes to political issues. In contrast to earlier studies, dissonance is defined issue-specifically rather than by party identification. Moreover, personal relevance is also included. In a two-step data collection, attitudes and relevance assessments were measured first. Participants were asked in a second session to look at an online magazine. Background software recorded the selection of and the time spent with specific contents as participants looked at the magazine. Results show that users spent more time with attitude-consistent information. This was, however, mostly due to persons who had rated issue relevance high. Users with low or moderate rating for issue relevance spent significantly less time with attitude-consistent content and significantly more time with attitude-inconsistent information, as compared with users with high relevance ratings. The influence of issue relevance is discussed as an explanation of contradictory results on cognitive dissonance and media use.     

Trade Costs in Bilateral Trade Flows: Heterogeneity and Zeroes in Structural Gravity Models

This paper contributes to the explanation of international trade flows with structural gravity models taking heterogeneity and excess zeroes into account. We introduce a more general hypothesis on the structure of trade costs in Helpman et al. (The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2008; 123 , 2, 441) theoretical model that is capable of explaining over‐dispersion in trade data. Zero‐inflated negative binomial models are considered to analyse the impact of trade costs, measured in terms of geographical distance and contiguity effects. An analysis related to a sample of 37 countries' trade flows, with heterogeneous effects across sectors and trade‐integrated areas, such as APEC and EU, is presented. The size of exporting and destination economies and cultural and institutional factors are considered as influencing both the extensive and the intensive margin of trade.