Export uncertainty in centrally planned economies and administered protection

The paper examines the price decision making process of a state foreign trade organization under threat of antidumping tariffs. Given the peculiar application of the antidumping law to centrally planned economy exporters, the paper formally outlines the parameters guiding the state exporter's price decision and attempts to estimate the degree of uncertainty it faces. The exporter's optimal price is shown to depend on its subjective probability distributions of numerous foreign prices and alternative methodologies for calculating a centrally planned economy exporter's “fair price.”     

PARTIAL EXERCISE OF LOAN COMMITMENTS UNDER ADAPTIVE PRICING

The partial takedown phenomenon associated with bank loan commitments is examined in a dynamic context in which banks adjust commitment prices to client takedown behavior. The optimal takedown is an increasing function of client riskiness and a decreasing function of the time the client plans to remain with its present bank and the cost of switching to a new bank. Since the bank's learning is cumulative, the longer a client remains with its bank the smaller is the commitment price adjustment resulting from an aberrant takedown. The enhanced commitment price certainty, obtained with longevity of the client relationship, helps to explain client reluctance to switch banks. Since the optimal takedown is an increasing function of client riskiness under adaptive pricing, such pricing may serve the added purpose of providing information on client risk.     

Revenue forecasting, budget setting and risk

The budget-making process can be viewed as a problem of decision making under uncertainty since revenues are unknown at the time the budget is written. Revenue forecasts become information for describing the uncertainty in revenue receipts, thereby allowing the decision maker to trade off desire for a larger budget against the uncertainty in revenues. A chance constraint decision model is used to model this process. Application of the model to evaluate alternative forecasting techniques is then demonstrated for several revenue sources used in Kansas City, Missouri.     

The intra-day impact of block trades on the Australian stock exchange

This study is concerned with the impact of block trades on transaction prices, themarket bid-ask spread and the frequency of trading on the Australian Stock Exchange. Access to a unique microstructure database enabled the resolution of a number of research design issues in earlier, mainly US-based, studies. Contrary to previous findings, there is no evidence of either a price reversal or changes in the market bid-ask spread surrounding block trades. Further, there is no evidence of an increase in the frequency of trades surrounding block trades. These contrasting results warrant closer inspection of the alternative market structures underlying the different exchanges.The authors are from the Department of Finance, the University of Sydney, Australia. The comments and suggestions of colleagues at the Universities of Sydney, New South Wales, and Queensland are gratefully acknowledged.     

Old homes, externalities, and poor neighborhoods. A model of urban decline and renewal

This paper investigates urban decline and renewal in the United States using three panels that follow neighborhoods on a geographically consistent basis over extended periods of time. Findings indicate that change in neighborhood economic status is common, averaging roughly 13 percent per decade; roughly two-thirds of neighborhoods studied in 1950 were of quite different economic status fifty years later. Panel unit root tests for 35 MSAs indicate that neighborhood economic status is a stationary process, consistent with long-running cycles of decline and renewal. In Philadelphia County, a complete cycle appears to last up to 100 years. Aging housing stocks and redevelopment contribute to these patterns, as do local externalities associated with social interactions. Lower-income neighborhoods appear to be especially sensitive to the presence of individuals that provide social capital. Many of the factors that drive change at the local level have large and policy relevant effects.     

Caught in the Middle: Organizational Impediments to Middle Managers’ Work-life Balance

As increased work demands and longer working hours become the reality for many employees, the concept of work-life balance has received increasing attention. This paper presents findings from an exploratory study of Australian middle managers, which investigated the impact of middle managers’ daily organizational experiences on their lives both in and beyond the workplace. We focus on respondents’ reports of the difficulty in achieving work-life balance, specifically, the organizational impediments to creating balance. Three particular areas where these impediments were apparent are: the impact of new technologies; limits to autonomy and control in the middle management role; and difficulties in taking advantage of flexibility initiatives in the workplace. As middle managers are caught in the middle between work and personal life, there is a need for organizations to support middle managers’ efforts to achieve work-life balance if the organization’s long-term goals are to be achieved.     

Urban to urban migration: Soviet patterns and post-Soviet implications

"In spite of extensive literature on migration in the Soviet Union, we know little about household-level decisions. This study specifies and estimates those variables important to understanding the migration decision. Using data from the Soviet Interview Project (SIP), we examine the forces influencing the decision to migrate or not to migrate, and in addition, for those who did migrate, the forces influencing the locational choices made. The results indicate that, while some of the traditional factors influencing migration are important, others are not, suggesting that in the post-Soviet era, differentiating the persistence of Soviet-type forces from emerging market-type forces will be important for an understanding of urban to urban migration."