HEDGING WITH INTERNATIONAL STOCK INDEX FUTURES: AN INTERTEMPORAL ERROR CORRECTION MODEL

In this paper we extend the traditional price change hedge ratio estimation method by applying the theory of cointegration to hedging with stock index futures contracts for France (CAC 40), the United Kingdom (FTSE 100), Germany (DAX), and Japan (NIKKEI). Previous studies ignore the last period's equilibrium error and short-run deviations. The findings of this study indicate that the hedge ratios obtained from the error correction method are superior to those obtained from the traditional method as evidenced by the likelihood ratio test and out-of-sample forecasts. Using the procedures developed in this paper, hedgers can control the risk of their portfolios more effectively at a lower cost.     

The Current Account in Developing Countries: A Perspective from the Consumption-Smoothing Approach

According to the consumption-smoothing view, a high degree ofcapital mobility implies that agents are able to fully smooththeir consumption in the face of shocks. This article developsa framework to test whether, indeed, the current account indeveloping countries acts as a buffer to smooth consumptionin the face of shocks to national cash flow, which is definedas output less investment less government expenditure. Usingvector autoregression analysis, we estimate the optimal consumption-smoothingcurrent account with data from a sample of forty-five developingcountries. We find that for a majority of the countries, thehypothesis of full consumption smoothing cannot be rejected,suggesting that capital mobility may after all be quite highin this group of countries.     

The Hedging Effectiveness of ECU Futures Contracts: Forecasting Evidence from an Error Correction Model

In this paper, the traditional price change hedge ratio estimation method is extended by applying the theory of cointegration in case of hedging with European Currency Unit (ECU) futures contracts. Previous studies ignore the last period's equilibrium error and short-run deviations. The findings of this study indicate that the hedge ratio estimated by the error correction method is superior to the one obtained from the traditional method, as evidenced by the likelihood ratio test and out-of-sample forecasts. Hedgers can control the risk of their portfolios more effectively at a lower cost.     

Impact of economic growth volatility on income inequality: ASEAN experience

The study attempts to examine the symmetric and the asymmetric impact of volatility of economic growth on the inequality of income in the major ASEAN economies over the period 1980–2015. Financial development, trade openness as a proxy of globalization, inflation, human capital formation, and fiscal policy are utilized as major control variables. The paper tries to explore the causal association between inequality of income distribution and economic growth volatility, exploring simultaneously the long-run association and the short-run dynamics in the time series structure. The study applied Clemente–Montanes–Reyes unit root test to identify the structural break in the time series. Further, the cointegrating relationship of the time series observations was explored by applying the ARDL (linear) bounds test approach along with the nonlinear ARDL for making fruitful comparisons in the long-run relationship among the variables. The countries chosen are Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore and The Philippines. The empirical findings strongly suggest a long-run cointegrating relationship between income inequality and growth volatility with a positive and statistically significant impact. Also, the causality analysis was explored using the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) method of Granger causality. The causality test shows that there exists bidirectional causality from inequality transmission to economic growth volatility. The implications that are developed from this study helps us to understand the various policy reforms in the ASEAN region, that are more transparent and can make these economies less susceptible to risks.     

A Test of the Signaling Value of IPO Underpricing with REIT IPO-SEO Pairs

The asymmetric information hypothesis states that IPO underpricing signals superior firm value. During the post-IPO period, the market learns the firms true worth such that good quality firms issue seasoned equity at favorable prices and recoup the loss sustained at IPO. Since REITs have no special incentive to issue debt because of their tax-exempt status, and since they must pay out 95 percent of net income as dividends, REIT managers are hard pressed to raise capital through seasoned equity. Consequently, the signaling link between IPOs and SEOs is critical for REITs. Consistent with the signaling model, we find strong evidence that (1) REITs that underprice IPOs more are likely to sell seasoned equity sooner, (2) higher IPO underpricing results in larger joint amount of capital raised through an IPO-SEO pair, and (3) firms that underprice IPOs underprice SEOs as well. IPO underpricing does not mitigate the valuation loss associated with seasoned offerings, however.     

Debt, Growth and Budgetary Regimes

Within the Barro (1990) model of productive public services, but with the inclusion of public debt, we derive and characterize on the balanced growth path, a set of welfare‐maximizing fiscal rules under two budgetary regimes – one with only the standard dynamic government budget constraint, and the other involving the golden rule of public finance. We demonstrate analytically that the optimal fiscal policy differs in the two budgetary regimes considered. We also analyse two cases within the second regime: one, where the ratio of current spending to tax revenues is parametrically given, and another, where this ratio is optimally chosen by the government.     

Financial deregulation and efficiency: An empirical analysis of Indian banks during the post reform period

The paper investigates the performance of Indian commercial banking sector during the post reform period 1992-2002. Several efficiency estimates of individual banks are evaluated using nonparametric Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). Three different approaches viz., intermediation approach, value-added approach and operating approach have been employed to differentiate how efficiency scores vary with changes in inputs and outputs. The analysis links the variation in calculated efficiencies to a set of variables, i.e., bank size, ownership, capital adequacy ratio, non-performing loans and management quality. The findings suggest that medium-sized public sector banks performed reasonably well and are more likely to operate at higher levels of technical efficiency. A close relationship is observed between efficiency and soundness as determined by bank's capital adequacy ratio. The empirical results also show that technically more efficient banks are those that have, on an average, less non-performing loans. A multivariate analysis based on the Tobit model reinforces these findings.     

A macroeconomic model for Nigeria, 1958–1974

The Nigerian economy has been modelled with special emphasis on the aggregate demand side. The set of “administered” interest rates have been accommodated in the usual IS/LM analysis, with the extra assumptions that the equilibrium income is attained when the disequilibrating forces in the product and the money markets are equal in magnitude but opposite in signs. The model has been tested with the available data, found to be stable, and indicate, among other things, that an increase in the crude petroleum price would improve the balance of trade barely up to three years and after that, would become adverse.