Derivatives traders’ reaction to mispricing in the underlying equity

This article examines trading behavior in the options market conditioned on mispricing in the underlying stock. We investigate the price equilibrium between the observed equity asset and the options-implied synthetic share as well as the relative divergence between the two prices. We find a consistently positive relation between the level of stock mispricing and violations of the upper-boundary condition using derivatives, along with an increase in price divergence. To control for the effect of shorting limitations on mispricing, we further examine prices during the short-sale ban in 2008. The results hold and in many instances are more significant during the ban period. Given the persistent disequilibria between the synthetic and observed stock prices, we argue the results are evidence of informed trading in the derivatives market.     

The effects of fiscal policy in the 1990s in Japan: A VAR analysis with event studies

This paper examines the effects of Japanese fiscal policy during the 1990s. A mixed vector autoregression (VAR)/event study approach is used for this purpose. The first empirical finding is that in the late 1990s, the negative effect of fiscal policy was larger and more persistent than the positive effect. This finding suggests that the large fiscal expansions in the late 1990s were inadequate for stimulating the macroeconomy in terms of the size and persistence of their policy effects. The second finding is that the permanent tax cuts implemented in the former part of the 1990s increased consumer durable spending significantly and persistently. This increase may reflect consumers’ incentive to spend before the increase in the consumption tax rate in April 1997.     

Management and Policy Concerns over Shifts in Innovation Trajectories: The Case of the Japanese Robotics Industry

Innovation related network systems would need to be re-aligned and adapted within major technological shifts and their capability to re-align themselves determines the dynamic capabilities of a national innovation system. In this paper, we present a particular phenomenon in industrial evolution, which we call a shift in the 'innovation trajectory', taking the case of the Japanese robotics industry that now undergoes major shifts in many respects. We consider activities directly involved with innovation in the entire value chain from invention to commercialization, and identify the structural changes in the national systems due to the shifts in innovation trajectory. Having utilized the basic framework of ''Techno Economic Network'', this paper analyzes six different structural shifts, which are related to product, technology, market, actor, competitive and socio-economic structures. This paper draws attention to the fundamental management and policy level concerns over the emerging shifts at four different decision making hierarchical levels. With concrete empirical evidences and results from interviews, this paper concludes that a new set of approaches is needed to shape these emerging innovation shifts.     

Evaluating shifts in Japan's quality-of-life

This paper presents a Data Envelopment Analysis/Malmquist index (DEA/MI) analysis of the change in quality-of-life (QOL), which is defined as the state of a social system as measured by multiple social-indicators. Applying panel data from Japan's 47 prefectures for the period 1975–2002, we identify significant movement in the country's overall QOL using a “cumulative” frontier shift index. Results suggest that Japan's QOL rose during the so-called “bubble economy years” (second half of the 1980s), and then dropped in the succeeding “lost-decade” (1990s). We also identify those prefectures considered most “responsible” for the shift(s) in QOL. Moreover, the use of both upper- and lower-bound DEAs enabled an evaluation of both “good” and “bad” movements in QOL.     

Conservation Auctions and Compliance: Theory and Evidence from Laboratory Experiments

Many agri-environmental conservation programs are faced with the problem of imperfect monitoring. This provides farmers with an incentive for noncompliance, because they can receive subsidies without implementing the conservation scheme. In this paper, bidding behavior and auction performance are compared for discriminatory-price and uniform-price auctions in an imperfect monitoring environment. Our theoretical analysis suggests that auction performances are equalized between the discriminatory-price and uniform-price auctions. However, laboratory experiments reveal that, although the discriminatory-price auction has an advantage in terms of reducing policy costs, it is more likely to cause adverse selection. As a result, the uniform-price auction tends to have higher efficiency and cost-effectiveness when compliance behavior is taken into account.     

On a two-step estimation of a multivariate logit model

In this article the author studies the properties of the two-step estimation method proposed by Domencich and McFadden (Urban Travel Demand, North-Holland, 1975) for a multivariate logit model and shows that it is consistent but asymptotically less efficient than the maximum likelihood estimator. Its computation, however, can be considerably simpler than that of the maximum likelihood estimator, especially in models involving several dependent variables.     

Partially generalized least squares and two-stage least squares estimators

A class of partially generalized least squares estimators and a class of partially generalized two-stage least squares estimators in regression models with heteroscedastic errors are proposed. By using these estimators a researcher can attain higher efficiency than that attained by the least squares or the two-stage least squares estimators without explicitly estimating each component of the heteroscedastic variances. However, the efficiency is not as high as that of the generalized least squares or the generalized two-stage least squares estimator calculated using the knowledge of the true variances. Hence the use of the term partial.