The existential necessity of midlife change

As life expectancy in the West increases and companies can no longer promise lifelong security, many businesspeople will need to make major changes during middle age, embarking on a second life and a second career. They must start by getting beyond two pervasive and opposing myths. The first is that midlife marks the onset of decline. Problems do arise during middle age--concerns about health and finances, for instance--but one's life force does not expire at 65, nor do possibilities vanish. In fact, by middle age, most executives have gained a freedom that only self-knowledge can impart, and they relish unprecedented opportunities for personal growth. Midlife transitions, however, must be rooted in realism, not driven by the second myth, which paints middle age as a time of magical transformation. Contrary to what self-help books and inspirational speakers proclaim, such transformations do not happen. A 50-year-old with little musical training, for instance, will not suddenly become a concert pianist. People who buy into this myth find that their inevitable disappointment can be debilitating. Paradoxically, the doctrine that aims to encourage change actually stifles it. To make successful transitions, executives must stay open to the possibilities their experience qualifies them for but remain realistic about what they can achieve. For companies, employees' midlife transitions represent both a challenge (senior managers seemingly on track to become CEO may instead leave) and an opportunity (other midlife executives, with different perspectives and experiences, may knock on the door). Organizations must help middle-aged executives through this difficult period, not just by offering a workshop or two but by providing ongoing coaching and opportunities for personal and professional development.     

Centralisation versus Decentralisation of Public Policies: Does the Heterogeneity of Individual Preferences Matter?*

This paper explores the role of the heterogeneity of fiscal preferences in the assignment of policy tasks to different levels of government (decentralisation versus centralisation). With reference to a sample of European countries, a median‐voter mechanism of collective decision is assumed to work at both a national and a supranational level. Using data from a large international survey (the International Social Survey Programme, ISSP), a series of econometric models are estimated in order to make individual attitudes representative of different categories of public expenditure and of different countries. The dominance of decentralisation over centralisation or vice versa is determined on the basis of the utility loss that each individual suffers in connection with the distance between his or her own most preferred level of public expenditure and that chosen by the national/supranational median voter. The main finding is that, differently from the predictions of Oates's decentralisation theorem, the assignment of responsibilities at the supranational level (centralisation) for a number of public expenditure programmes (healthcare, education, unemployment benefits) dominates (or is close to dominating) decentralisation, even in the absence of economies of scale and interregional spillovers. However, when the possibility of interjurisdictional mobility is explicitly considered, in line with the predictions of Tiebout's model, decentralisation dominance becomes more and more substantial and also prevails in the sectors where, under the nonmobility assumption, the assignment of responsibilities at the supranational level is efficient.     

Distributional Effects of Price Reforms in the Italian Utility Markets*

In this paper, we analyse some distributional effects of the reforms to water and energy services in Italy. We first document the new regulation setting in these services, illustrating the dynamics of utility prices and of household expenditure in the period 1998‐2005. We then propose a way to measure the affordability of public utilities, in order to investigate how many households would incur a potentially excessive burden if they consumed a minimum quantity of utility services. Finally, we calculate this index on data from the Survey on Family Budgets (Indagine sui consumi delle famiglie). Our results show how the affordability of utility bills varies from region to region depending on climate, income, family endowment and family size. The analysis ‐ also based on a counterfactual exercise ‐ finds that so far, utility reforms do not seem to have produced any negative effects on weaker households.     

Analysing Tax–Benefit Reforms Using Non‐Parametric Methods*

Static tax–benefit microsimulation models (MSMs) are widely used and well‐regarded tools for public policy analysis, but it is essential to use them very carefully. This paper focuses on the analysis of MSM output, suggesting the use of non‐parametric methods as a useful, informative and relatively straightforward complement to detect effects not always captured by measures often used to present MSM results. Non‐parametric methods are used here to analyse the output of an MSM applied to the 1998 Italian personal income tax reform, the main change in which concerned the tax schedule: the first tax rate was increased from 10 per cent to 18.5 per cent and the top one was reduced by 4.5 percentage points. Non‐parametric methods highlight that the effects of this reform were very different for different types of households, with low‐income pensioner households among the main losers. Results are checked for robustness by standard statistical methods and compared with empirical results obtainable using quintile histograms.     

Consumption optimization for recursive utility in a jump-diffusion model

In this paper, we consider a market model with prices and consumption following a jump-diffusion dynamics. In this setting, we first characterize the optimal consumption plan for an investor with recursive stochastic differential utility on the basis of his/her own beliefs, then we solve the inverse problem to find what beliefs make a given consumption plan optimal. The problem is viewed in general for a class of homogeneous recursive utility, and later we choose a logarithmic model for the utility aggregator as an explicitly computable example. When beliefs, represented via Girsanov’s theorem, get incorporated into the model, the change of measure gives rise, up to a transformation, to a backward stochastic differential equation whose generator exhibits a quadratic behavior in the Brownian component and a locally Lipschitz one in the jump component, which is solvable on the basis of some recent results.     

Investment and Capital Structure of Partially Private Regulated Firms

We develop a model that examines the capital structure and investment decisions of regulated firms in a setting that incorporates two key institutional features of the public utilities sector in many countries: firms are partially owned by the state and regulators are not necessarily independent. Among other things, we show that regulated firms issue more debt, invest more, and enjoy higher regulated prices when they face more independent regulators, are more privatized, and when regulators are more pro‐firm. Moreover, regulatory independence, higher degree of privatization, and pro‐firm regulatory climate are associated with higher social welfare.     

Fatal and serious road crashes involving young New Zealand drivers: a latent class clustering approach

The over-representation of young drivers in road crashes remains an important concern worldwide. Cluster analysis has been applied to young driver sub-groups, but its application by analysing crash occurrence is just emerging. We present a classification analysis that advances the field through a holistic overview of crash patterns useful for designing youth-targeted road safety programmes. We compiled a database of 8644 New Zealand crashes from 2002 to 2011 involving at least one 15–24-year-old driver and a fatal or serious injury for at least one road user. We considered crash location, infrastructure characteristics, environmental conditions, demographic characteristics, driving behaviour, and pre-crash manoeuvres. The analysis yielded 15 and 8 latent classes of, respectively, single-vehicle and multi-vehicle crashes, and average posterior probabilities measured the odds of correct classification that revealed how the identified clusters contain mostly crashes of a particular class and all the crashes of that class. The results raised three major safety concerns for young drivers that should be addressed: (1) reckless driving and traffic law violations; (2) inattention, error, and hazard perception problems; and (3) interaction with road geometry and lighting conditions, especially on high-speed open roads and state highways.     

An Anticompetitive Effect of Eliminating Transport Barriers in Network Markets

This paper examines the welfare effects of physically interconnecting two (network) markets that were previously separated. In each market a different set of capacity-constrained firms operate. Firms engage in a supergame and collude whenever it is rational for them to do so.We find that, under certain parametric restrictions, interconnection of the two markets reduces total welfare. The collusive horizon may extend from a single market to the overall integrated market. In such case, interconnection can be viewed as “exporting” collusion, rather than competition.