Nonparametric tests for Optimal Predictive Ability

A nonparametric method for comparing multiple forecast models is developed and implemented. The hypothesis of Optimal Predictive Ability generalizes the Superior Predictive Ability hypothesis from a single given loss function to an entire class of loss functions. Distinction is drawn between General Loss functions, Convex Loss functions, and Symmetric Convex Loss functions. The research hypothesis is formulated in terms of moment inequality conditions. The empirical moment conditions are reduced to an exact and finite system of linear inequalities based on piecewise-linear loss functions. The hypothesis can be tested in a statistically consistent way using a blockwise Empirical Likelihood Ratio test statistic. A computationally feasible test procedure computes the test statistic using Convex Optimization methods, and estimates conservative, data-dependent critical values using a majorizing chi-square limit distribution and a moment selection method. An empirical application to inflation forecasting reveals that a very large majority of thousands of forecast models are redundant, leaving predominantly Phillips Curve-type models, when convexity and symmetry are assumed.     

The important role of pressure in supercritical fluid process development revealed by reaction calorimetry

The technique of reaction calorimetry adapted for use with reactions in supercritical fluids was used to study some safety aspects of the free-radical dispersion polymerization of methyl methacrylate in scCO₂. The reaction heat rate profile was found to change very little once the dispersion was well formed. Furthermore, it provided valuable information for the calculation of the maximum temperature attainable by the synthesis reaction (MTSR) in the case of a hypothetical cooling system failure. Finally, a series of failure scenarios demonstrated the importance of the pressure as far as the safety of the process is concerned, due to the particularity of the supercritical state of the solvent. It was found that the acceleration phase of the reaction is the most critical period, since a cooling system failure during this phase leaves very little time before the pressure overcomes the operational limit of the equipment and results in an accident. Hence, the utility and the importance of defining the reaction heat rate profile become obvious and several safety features have to be taken into consideration when designing a SCF process. © 2009 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Process Saf Prog 2009     

Output effects of fiscal stimulus in Central and Eastern European countries

In spite of the rapidly growing research on fiscal multipliers over recent years, little evidence has been so far accumulated in developing and emerging economies. This paper investigates the nature and the size of fiscal multipliers in Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. Unlike most of the existing literature, we draw upon a panel vector error correction model, which appropriately captures the common long-term path of CEE countries, while allowing for different short-run dynamics, in an integrated setup. Our main results show that the spending multiplier is positive, but low on average. Moreover, its sign, significance and magnitude vary across CEE. Finally, both impulse and cumulative fiscal multipliers are sensitive to a wide range of CEE characteristics, including the exchange rate regime, the level of economic development, the fiscal stance and the openness degree.     

Retail networks and real estate: the case of Swiss luxury watches in China and Southeast Asia

Shopping centers are among the most significant places to sell luxury goods in East Asia. However, the relations between retail networks of luxury companies and access to land and real estate still need to be addressed. On the one hand, an extensive literature highlights how the turn to luxury industry since the 1990s has enabled some European countries to maintain their comparative advantage on the global market and at the same time to keep a significant part of their production non-globalized. Yet, an issue that remains to be addressed is the way European luxury companies are able to enter and expand their sales networks in emerging countries. On the other hand, while real estate has become a major economic circuit in East Asia, there is still a lack of research about the property industry and companies’ concrete strategies and business models. This article is hence an exploratory study that tackles the issue of real estate within the strategies of the main actors of the Swiss watch industry, namely Swatch Group, Richemont, and LVMH, which have massively invested in their retail network in China and East Asia since the 1990s.     

How R&D Competition Affects Investment Choices

We analyze firm research and development investment incentives in a framework in which only one innovation can be undertaken. We assume that the probability of discovering the innovation depends on a parameter that represents the technical difficulty of innovating. We show that patent protection is not always necessary for investments to be made. With patent protection, research and development competition leads to a symmetric equilibrium. Moreover, firms over‐invest in marginal innovation but under‐invest in difficult innovation, which explains why and how public authorities should intervene to promote specific research in certain economic sectors. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

What separates us? Sources of resistance to globalization

With increasing sophistication, economists have been estimating gravity equations for five decades. Robust evidence shows that borders and distance impede trade by much more than tariffs or transports costs can explain. We therefore advocate investigation of other sources of resistance, despite the greater difficult involved in measuring and modelling them. From our selective review of recent findings, a unifying explanation emerges. A legacy of historical isolation and conflict forged a world economy in which neither tastes nor information are homogeneously distributed. Cultural difference and inadequate information manifest themselves most strongly at national borders and over distance.     

Cultural transmission, socialization and the population dynamics of multiple-trait distributions

This paper studies the population dynamics of multiple preference traits in a model of intergenerational cultural transmission. Parents socialize and transmit their preferences to their children with endogenous intensities. Populations concentrated on a single cultural group are in general not stable. There is a unique stable stationary distribution, and it supports two or more cultural groups, in particular those with greater intolerance with respect to others' traits. The larger the heterogeneity of intolerance levels across cultural groups, the smaller the number of traits that are supported in the stable stationary distribution.     

What crises could teach us about complexity and systemic management: The case of the Nestucca oil spill

In this article we attempt to uncover some systemic management principles for the better management of complex issues. Taking a pragmatic approach we have expanded the case methodology proposed by John Dewey to the case study of a major crisis. By proposing that crises allow for a better apprehension of complexity, we study the changes which were carried out or not, to this day, after the 1988 Nestucca oil spill that occurred in Canada only three months prior to the Exxon-Valdez disaster. After conducting a linear and systemic analysis of the crisis, we propose that the changes institutionalized thus far spring mostly from what we call “behavioral” and “paradigmatic” learning which are weak for addressing complex issues. Proposing that 15% of the people we have interviewed where able to derive a “systemic learning” from this crisis, we suggest several unlocking strategies that allow these systemic lessons to be institutionalized.     

Open social innovation dynamics and impact: exploratory study of a fab lab network

The aim of this research is to explore the dynamics and impact of open social innovation, within the context of fab labs and makerspaces. Using an exploratory methodology based on 12 semi‐structured interviews of fab lab founders belonging to The Centres for Maker Innovation and Technology (CMIT) programme – a network of 170 fab labs located in Eastern Europe – this research explores the impact of an adopting an open approach in relation to the different stages of social innovation (prompts, proposals, prototypes, sustaining, scaling and diffusion, systemic change) as well as social impact. The main results of this study are that while the CMIT programme provided each fab lab with similar initial conditions (identical funding, objectives and rules), the open social innovation approached adopted enabled to give birth to a wide diversity of fab labs, each being very well adapted to the local environment, social needs and constraints and able to deliver social impact in just a matter of years; a result that would be hard to achieve with a centralised top‐down approach. The study identified three types of CMITs – Education, Industry and Residential – which could be similar or different depending on the stage of social open innovation. Furthermore, this paper discusses the main difficulties social entrepreneurs encounter as a part of the open social innovation process, as well as means to overcome them. In this respect, this study adds to the literature on fab labs by providing more comprehensive view of the challenges faced by fab labs (and makerspaces) founders, as well as suggestions of strategies enabling to ensure their long‐term sustainability.     

Power, Distributive Conflicts, and Multiple Growth Paths

This article shows that multiple growth paths may occurin a politico-economic model of endogenous growth. This multiplicityis characterized by the coexistence of the low-tax, low-capital-flightequilibrium and a high-tax, high-capital-flight equilibrium.The likelihood of multiplicity is crucially related to the structureof power in society—namely, it is necessary that the politicallydecisive agents have a greater access to international capitalmarkets than the average in the economy.