The Political Economy of Education and Development in an Open Economy

If the price effect of opening up a developing economy may be expected to act as a disincentive for investment in human capital, the opposite is likely to be true of the income effect, especially in the presence of credit market imperfections among the poor. It is shown in this paper that this may no longer be the case in a society initially dominated by an oligarchic capitalist elite that is afraid of losing its political control in favor of an educated middle class. Although it may sometimes be in its interest to democratize by subsidizing education when the economy is closed, incentives to do so disappear when the economy is open to trade or factor flows.     

Efficient tests of stock return predictability

Conventional tests of the predictability of stock returns could be invalid, that is reject the null too frequently, when the predictor variable is persistent and its innovations are highly correlated with returns. We develop a pretest to determine whether the conventional t-test leads to invalid inference and an efficient test of predictability that corrects this problem. Although the conventional t-test is invalid for the dividend–price and smoothed earnings–price ratios, our test finds evidence for predictability. We also find evidence for predictability with the short rate and the long-short yield spread, for which the conventional t-test leads to valid inference.     

Public research/industry relationships: Efficiency conditions

If economists of technical change dealt with the public research/industry interface, the literature lacks empirical contributions. The present paper is clearly empirical. It investigates the efficiency of the relationships between public research institutions and industry from the point of view of the firm looking for solutions to its problems. The empirical work is based on the study of 32 cases of partnerships in France. It suggests that the efficiency of the interface depends on the context (nature of innovations, public research skills needed, duration of relationships, technological strategies of firms) and on the strategies of public research institutions (organizational linkages adopted). Four hypotheses are examined to test these efficiency conditions.     

Triggers,templates and twitches in the tracking of emerging strategic issues

A longitudinal investigation of group tracking of potential new applications and markets created by an emerging technology (cellular telephones) is used to gain more understanding of the shifts of cognitive frames of reference in the environmental tracking of emerging strategic issues. The dynamics of frame of reference shifts is examined through the derivation and operationalization of the concepts of templates, triggers and twitches. The results posit that examining the frame of reference shifts can be more informative than examining the frames themselves. Implications for strategic management practice and research are addressed.     

Political foundations of the resource curse

In this paper we argue that the political incentives that resource endowments generate are the key to understanding whether or not they are a curse. We show: (1) politicians tend to over-extract natural resources relative to the efficient extraction path because they discount the future too much, and (2) resource booms improve the efficiency of the extraction path. However, (3) resource booms, by raising the value of being in power and by providing politicians with more resources which they can use to influence the outcome of elections, increase resource misallocation in the rest of the economy. (4) The overall impact of resource booms on the economy depends critically on institutions since these determine the extent to which political incentives map into policy outcomes. Countries with institutions that promote accountability and state competence will tend to benefit from resource booms since these institutions ameliorate the perverse political incentives that such booms create. Countries without such institutions however may suffer from a resource curse.     

Risk aversion and skewness preference

Empirically, co-skewness of asset returns seems to explain a substantial part of the cross-sectional variation of mean return not explained by beta. This finding is typically interpreted in terms of a risk averse representative investor with a cubic utility function. This paper questions this interpretation. We show that the empirical tests fail to impose risk aversion and the implied utility function takes an inverse S-shape. Unfortunately, the first-order conditions are not sufficient to guarantee that the market portfolio is the global maximum for this utility function, and our results suggest that the market portfolio is more likely to represent the global minimum. In addition, if we do impose risk aversion, then co-skewness has minimal explanatory power.     

The Outlook for the Euro Changeover: A Summary and General Analysis

In this paper, the procedures and problems of the changeover to the euro are reviewed. The legal elements involved are discussed as are the psychological aspects. Various practical problems and proposed solutions are described. The possibility of resistance from the consumers in certain segments of the Member State populations is also addressed. One reason for any such resistance might be that for many citizens, the change of currency appears to have little bearing on their everyday concerns.Particular attention is devoted to the scenario for the period 1 January to 1 July 2002, during which coins and notes in euros and national monetary units can be in circulation at the same time.     

EU Membership and FDI: Is There an Endogenous Credibility Effect?

ABSTRACT

The European sovereign debt crisis has increased the uncertainty regarding the benefits and costs of membership in the Economic and Monetary Union. In this article, we decided not to propose a general model but to focus on one of the important components of the European financial integration. In particular, we develop a structural gravity model, influenced by some very recent theoretical and econometric advancements. This new structural gravity approach provides needed theoretical underpinnings as well as strong support for the econometric estimation of gravity models.     

THE PRICE OF SILENCE: MARKETS FOR NOISE LICENSES AND AIRPORTS*

This article presents a market design for the management of noise pollution created by aircraft traffic around airports. A local market for noise licenses allows noise generators to compensate noise victims and to meet social acceptability. We show that the market allows the market designer to implement the social planner's optimal allocation of flights as long as the latter does not put too high a weight in his/her objective function on firms' profits compared to the disutility of noise pollution. The fact that local representatives of noise victims may be strategic players does not fundamentally alter this finding. Because of the market auctioneer's information constraints, noise licenses are likely to distribute windfall gains to residents, which alters the urban structure in the long run.     

The erosion of colonial trade linkages after independence

Most independent nations today were part of empires in 1945. Using bilateral trade data from 1948 to 2006, we examine the effect of independence on post-colonial trade. While there is little short-run effect on trade, after four decades trade with the metropole (colonizer) has contracted by about 65%. Hostile separations lead to large, immediate reductions in trade. We also find that trade between former colonies of the same empire erodes as much as trade with the metropole, whereas trade with third countries decreases about 20%. The gradual trade deterioration following independence suggests the depreciation of some form of trading capital.