The Term Structure of Implied Forward Volatility: Recovery and Informational Content in the Corn Options Market

Using a flexible method, we develop the term structure of volatility implied by corn futures options with differing maturities, and evaluate its ability to predict subsequent realized price volatility. The implied forward volatilities anticipate realized volatility well. For the nearby interval, the implied forward volatilities provide unbiased forecasts, and are superior to forecasts based on historical volatilities. For more distant intervals, early-year options predict the direction and magnitude of future volatility changes about as well as a three-year moving average and better than a naïve forecast. However, later-year options display less forecast power in part due to reduced trading activity.     

A dynamic model of settlement

We investigate the role of settlement in a dynamic model of a payment system where the ability of participants to perform certain welfare-improving transactions is subject to random and unobservable shocks. In the absence of settlement, the full information first-best allocation cannot be supported due to incentive constraints. In contrast, this allocation can be supported if settlement is introduced, provided that it takes place with a sufficiently high frequency.     

Globally evolutionarily stable portfolio rules

The paper examines a dynamic model of a financial market with endogenous asset prices determined by short-run equilibrium of supply and demand. Assets pay dividends that are partially consumed and partially reinvested. The traders use fixed-mix investment strategies (portfolio rules), distributing their wealth between assets in fixed proportions. Our main goal is to identify globally evolutionarily stable strategies, allowing an investor to “survive,” i.e., to accumulate in the long run a positive share of market wealth, regardless of the initial state of the market. It is shown that there is a unique portfolio rule with this property—an analogue of the famous Kelly rule of “betting your beliefs.” A game theoretic interpretation of this result is given.     

Implications of the ‘IAS Regulation’ for Research into the International Differences in Accounting Systems

Meek and Thomas (2004) call for research on the continued relevance of ‘rediscovered’ dichotomous accounting classifications. We provide such evidence by examining how developments surrounding the ‘IAS Regulation’ (1606/2002) influenced international differences in accounting systems in the European Union. Since a sufficient time series of actual post-2005 International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) reporting practice is not yet observable, we propose an initial re-classification of accounting systems based on evidence available to date, that is, the degree of implementation of the IAS Regulation in the Member States. Consistent with Nobes (1998), we find that the degree of public accountability to outside investors (the ‘public/private’ criterion) is becoming the primary differentiator for accounting systems in Europe, surpassing country-level variables such as legal system and culture. The distinction between consolidated and individual financial statements is the second emerging differentiator. While consolidated accounting is becoming more uniform across countries, cross-country cultural differences are most likely to persist in individual accounting. Based on our analysis we highlight two important areas of future research beyond the consolidated financial statements of listed firms (e.g. Nobes, 2005; Schipper, 2005). First, at the country level, the interaction of IFRS and individual financial statements will need to be reassessed. In addition, research could help introduce a degree of differentiation into financial reporting regulation for unlisted firms, because these firms are not a homogeneous group. Also, the convergence of national GAAP systems with IFRS will benefit from fresh research insights. Second, at the firm level, future research could analyze the extent to which the determinants and consequences of IFRS adoption, an area well researched for publicly traded firms (e.g. Cuijpers and Buijink, 2005), generalize to unlisted firms. Such research will help detect emerging patterns of accounting systems within an international context. It will generate insights into the disconnect of consolidated accounts from national influences, the degree of uniformity of consolidated accounts among international firms, the continued relevance of traditional classifications of international accounting systems for individual accounts and accounts of unlisted companies, and the convergence of national standards with IFRS.     

Monetary policy and dividend growth in Germany: long-run structural modelling versus bounds testing approach

This study examines the long-run relationship between monetary policy and dividend growth in Germany. For this purpose, cointegration is tested for between both variables in the period 1974 to 2003. However, problems related to spurious regression arise from the mixed order of integration of the series used, from mutual causation between the variables and from the lack of a long-run relationship among the variables of the model. These problems are addressed by applying the bounds testing approach to cointegration in addition to a more standard long-run structural modelling approach. In principle, both procedures are capable of dealing with the controversial issue of the exogeneity of monetary policy vis-à-vis dividend growth. However, the structural modelling approach still leaves a certain degree of uncertainty about the integration properties of the interest rate and the dividend growth. Hence, one feels legitimized to refer to the bounds testing procedure and to conclude that in the longer term short-term rates drive stock returns but not vice versa.     

How the ECB and the US Fed set interest rates

Monetary policies of the European Central Bank (ECB) and US Fed can be characterized by ‘Taylor rules’, that is both central banks seem to be setting rates by taking into account the ‘output gap’ and inflation. We also set up and tested Taylor rules which incorporate money growth and the euro–dollar exchange rate, thereby improving the ‘fit’ between actual and Taylor rule based rates. In general, Taylor rules appear to be a much better way of describing Fed policy than ECB policy. Simulations suggest that the ECB's short-term interest rates have been at a much lower level in the last 2 years compared with what a Taylor rule would suggest.     

Foreign-owned plants and job security

We investigate the hypothesis that workers in foreign-owned plants face greater job insecurity than those in domestic-owned plants. Using linked employer-employee data from Germany, we examine whether foreign-owned plants are more likely to close down, and whether workers in foreign-owned plants face higher separation rates. Our results show that, in Germany, foreign-owned plants per se are not associated with greater job insecurity, either through plant exit or worker separation. However, small, non-exporting and privately owned foreign-owned plants do face a higher risk of closure than equivalent domestic plants.     

Ich fühle,also bin ich — Markenemotionen machen den Unterschied

Marken l?sen Gefühle bei den Konsumenten aus. Eine Studie zeigt: Starke Marken profitieren von den mit ihnen verknüpften positiven Emotionen, schwache Marken hingegen k?nnen sogar negative Gefühle erzeugen. Es gilt also, Marken „positiv aufzuladen“. Denn st?rkere Markenbindung und gesteigerte Markenbegehrlichkeit wirken sich letztendlich auch positiv auf die Kaufentscheidung der Verbraucher aus.