论卓炯经济理论的生命力

本文认为，卓炯虽然离开我们十多年，但是，卓炯经济思想仍然具有强大的生命力。卓炯在马克思主义经济理论研究上取得的成就，仍然处于理论前沿。卓炯的分工理论，不但是古今经济学家着迷的课题，还是20世纪80年代兴起的新兴古典经济学的理论基础。卓炯关于市场机制配置资源优化的市场经济理论，不但是古典、新古典经济学的理论核心，还是经济学永远绕不开的中心论题。卓炯提出的市场经济模式经受了改革开放实践的考验，继续放出夺目的理论光彩。继承和发展卓炯经济理论是广东经济学家的光荣和骄傲．是义不容辞的理论任务。     

济钢钢渣综合利用现状和建议

介绍了济钢钢渣综合利用的现状和国内比较先进的钢渣处理技术，对钢渣利用存在的问题提出了建议。     

General‐to‐Specific Model Selection Procedures for Structural Vector Autoregressions*

Structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models have emerged as a dominant research strategy in empirical macroeconomics, but suffer from the large number of parameters employed and the resulting estimation uncertainty associated with their impulse responses. In this paper, we propose general‐to‐specific (Gets) model selection procedures to overcome these limitations. It is shown that single‐equation procedures are generally efficient for the reduction of recursive SVAR models. The small‐sample properties of the proposed reduction procedure (as implemented using PcGets) are evaluated in a realistic Monte Carlo experiment. The impulse responses generated by the selected SVAR are found to be more precise and accurate than those of the unrestricted VAR. The proposed reduction strategy is then applied to the US monetary system considered by Christiano, Eichenbaum and Evans (Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 78, pp. 16–34, 1996) . The results are consistent with the Monte Carlo and question the validity of the impulse responses generated by the full system.     

Syndicated Loan Announcements and Borrower Value

Announcements of syndication loans increase borrowers' shareholder wealth if they are revolving credit agreements but not if they are term loans. Share price responses to revolving credit announcements are positive and significant, whereas the wealth effect for term loans is negative and significant. The results show that announcements from both the financial press and commercial information providers can affect borrower share price reaction. Overall, single syndication announcements appear to be more newsworthy than multiple announcements reported in the financial press, and we find evidence of information leakage, post‐announcement drift, or both.     

优化银行会计管理的策略思考

目前银行会计管理工作中存在诸多问题,应分析其成因,并采取相应措施,例如完善会计核算制度、规范会计基础工作、建立集中统一的会计管理体制、建立健全会计监督制度等加以解决.     

仓库物资装卸最优性方案的选择

军队后方仓库是军用物资装备的储备基地，是军队物流系统的一个重要环节。如何利用现有条件，提高日常乃至战时仓库的收发、存储能力和工作效率，是提高军队后勤保障能力的一个重要课题。本文对仓库物资装卸中的几个主要技术经济指标进行探讨分析。     

Noise Trading and the Management of Operational Risk; Firms,Traders and Irrationality in Financial Markets*

abstract Efficient market models cannot explain the high level of trading in financial markets in terms of asset portfolio adjustment. It is presumed that much of this excessive trading is irrational ‘noise’ trading. A corollary is that there must either be irrational traders in the market or rational traders with irrational aberrations. The paper reviews the various attempts to explain noise trading in the finance literature, concluding that the persistence of irrationality is not well explained. Data from a study of 118 traders in four large investment banks are presented to advance reasons why traders might seek to trade more frequently than financial models predict. The argument is advanced that trades do not simply occur in order to generate profit, but it does not follow that such trading is irrational. Trading may generate information, accelerate learning, create commitments and enhance social capital, all of which sustain traders' long term survival in the market. The paper treats noise trading as a form of operational risk facing firms operating in financial markets and discusses approaches to the management of such risk.     

The dynamics of moonlighting in Russia1

This paper uses the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) to analyse the dynamics of moonlighting by the working‐age population. We find that moonlighting is transitory and that a desire to switch jobs expressed in the past is positively related to moonlighting in the present and to actual job changes in the future. We also find that workers who moonlighted as self‐employed in the past represent 26.5 percent of the new self‐employed. These results suggest that moonlighting in Russia can be seen as an effective incubator for setting up new self‐employed businesses, thereby providing long‐term benefits for the economy.     

An investigation of transformation-based prediction interval for the Weibull median life

Statistical inference based on the Weibull distribution, a distribution widely used in reliability and survival analysis, is usually difficult as it often involves numerical computation and approximation. However, this distribution can be transformed to near-normality by a simple power transformation. Based on this transformation, a prediction interval (PI) for its median can be easily constructed through an inverse transformation. The procedure for selecting the best power transformation through minimizing Kullback-Leibler information is described. The property of this transformation-based PI is investigated. Simple correction factors are also proposed. It is shown that the transformation-based PI with corrections performs well, irrespective of the sample size and parameter values. Simulation results show that the new PI generally outperforms the existing PI. Numerical examples are given for illustration.     

Improved estimation of portfolio value‐at‐risk under copula models with mixed marginals

Portfolio value‐at‐risk (PVAR) is widely used in practice, but recent criticisms have focused on risks arising from biased PVAR estimates due to model specification errors and other problems. The PVAR estimation method proposed in this article combines generalized Pareto distribution tails with the empirical density function to model the marginal distributions for each asset in the portfolio, and a copula model is used to form a joint distribution from the fitted marginals. The copula–mixed distribution (CMX) approach converges in probability to the true marginal return distribution but is based on weaker assumptions that may be appropriate for the returns data found in practice. CMX is used to estimate the joint distribution of log returns for the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TSE) index and the associated futures contracts on SGX and TAIFEX. The PVAR estimates for various hedge portfolios are computed from the fitted CMX model, and backtesting diagnostics indicate that CMX outperforms the alternative PVAR estimators. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 26:997–1018, 2006