Data and Dogma: The Great Indian Poverty Debate

What happened to poverty in India in the 1990s has been fiercelydebated, both politically and statistically. The debate hasrun parallel to the wider debate about globalization and povertyin the 1990s and is also an important part of that debate. Theeconomic reforms of the early 1990s in India were followed byrates of economic growth that were high by historical standards.The effects on poverty remain controversial, however. The officialnumbers published by the government of India, showing an accelerationin the rate of poverty reduction from 36 percent of the populationin 1993/94 to 26 percent in 1999/2000, have been challengedfor showing both too little and too much poverty reduction.The various claims have often been frankly political, but thereare also many important statistical issues. The debate, reviewedin this article, provides an excellent example of how politicsand statistics interact in an important, largely domestic debate.Although there is no consensus on what happened to poverty inIndia in the 1990s, there is good evidence both that povertyfell and that the official estimates of poverty reduction aretoo optimistic, particularly for rural India. The issues coveredin this article, although concerned with the measurement ofpoverty in India, have wide international relevance—discrepanciesbetween surveys and national accounts, the effects of questionnairedesign, reporting periods, survey nonresponse, repair of imperfectdata, choice of poverty lines, and interplay between statisticsand politics.      

纸幕与纸老虎:区域研究和比较研究

关于威权政体的转型研究,各种跨区域的比较有一定的价值,但是区域内的比较更加有用.区域研究和比较研究之间并不存在严格的分界线.那种认为有关转型国家的区域研究孤立于比较政治学之外的观点,是没有多少根据的.转型学的方法并不一定具有非常重要的价值.     

Contagion, Monsoons, and Domestic Turmoil in Indonesia's Currency Crisis

The paper investigates whether Indonesia's recent currency crisis was due to domestic fundamentals, common external shocks ("monsoons"), or contagion from neighboring countries. Markov switching models attribute speculative pressure on Indonesia's currency to domestic political and financial factors and contagion from speculative pressures in Thailand and Korea. In particular, the results from a time-varying transition probability Markov switching model (which overcomes some drawbacks of previous methods) show that inclusion of exchange rate pressures from Thailand and Korea in the transition probabilities improves the conditional probabilities of crisis in Indonesia. The paper also finds evidence of contagion in the stock market.     

States and Markets: The Advantage of an Early Start

In this paper, an index of the depth of experience with state-level institutions, or state antiquity, is derived for a large set of countries. We show that state antiquity is significantly correlated with measures of political stability and institutional quality, with income per capita, and with the rate of economic growth between 1960 and 1995. State antiquity contributes significantly to the explanation of differences in growth rates, explaining half of the differences in growth rates between countries like China and Mauritania, which are located at the two ends of the spectrum. It is also a good instrument for social infrastructure, which explains cross-country differences in worker productivity.     

Liquidity of secondary capital markets: Allocative efficiency and the maturity composition of the capital stock

Summary We investigate the function of liquid financial markets for the allocation of productive capital. We consider an economy where agents endogenously choose among capital production technologies with differing gestation periods. Long-gestation capital investments must be rolled-over in secondary capital markets. The use of such investment technologies therefore requires the support of liquid financial markets. We investigate how changes in the liquidity of these markets (i.e., in the costs of transacting) affect (a) the choice of capital production technology, (b) per capita income and the per capita capital stock, (c) the level of financial market activity, (d) the real return on savings and (e) welfare in a steady state equilibrium. Improvements in financial market liquidity raise rates of return on savings, and favor the increased use of long gestation capital investments. However, such improvements may or may not lead to higher levels of real activity or steady state welfare. We describe conditions under which various outcomes occur.We have benefited from the comments of seminar participants at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, the International Monetary Fund, Berkeley, Boston College, Boston University, Brown, Chicago, Illinois, Miami, UC San Diego, Simon Fraser, University of British Columbia, University of Washington, Yale, the Canadian Macro Study Group Meetings, the Murrary S. Johnson Conference (University of Texas/Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas), and the Far West Rotating Economic Theory Conference. We would also like to thank John Bryant, Andreas Hornstein, Dan Peled, Bill Schworm, Karl Shell, Bart Taub and an anonymous referee for their comments on an earlier draft of the paper.     

Comparison of medical costs and healthcare resource utilization of post-menopausal women with HR+/HER2− metastatic breast cancer receiving everolimus-based therapy or chemotherapy: a retrospective claims database analysis

Objective:

To analyze medical costs and healthcare resource utilization (HRU) associated with everolimus-based therapy or chemotherapy among post-menopausal women with hormone-receptor-positive, human-epidermal-growth-factor-receptor-2-negative (HR+/HER2?) metastatic breast cancer (mBC).

Methods:

Patients with HR+/HER2? mBC who discontinued a non-steroidal aromatase inhibitor and began a new line of treatment with everolimus-based therapy or chemotherapy (index therapy/index date) between July 20, 2012 and April 30, 2014 were identified from two large claims databases. All-cause, BC-related, and adverse event (AE)-related medical costs (in 2014 USD) and all-cause HRU per patient per month (PPPM) were analyzed for both treatment groups across patients’ first four lines of therapies for mBC. Adjusted differences in costs and HRU between the everolimus and chemotherapy treatment group were estimated pooling all lines and using multivariable generalized linear models, accounting for difference in patient characteristics.

Results:

A total of 3298 patients were included: 902 everolimus-treated patients and 2636 chemotherapy-treated patients. Compared to chemotherapy, everolimus was associated with significantly lower all-cause (adjusted mean difference?=?$3455, p?<?0.01) and BC-related ($2510, p?<?0.01) total medical costs, with inpatient ($1344, p?<?0.01) and outpatient costs ($1048, p?<?0.01) as the main drivers for cost differences. Everolimus was also associated with significantly lower AE-related medical costs ($1730, p?<?0.01), as well as significantly lower HRU (emergency room incidence rate ratio [IRR]?=?0.83; inpatient IRR?=?0.74; inpatient days IRR?=?0.65; outpatient IRR?=?0.71; BC-related outpatient IRR?=?0.57; all p?<?0.01).

Conclusions:

This retrospective claims database analysis of commercially-insured patients with HR+/HER2? mBC in the US showed that everolimus was associated with substantial all-cause, BC-related, and AE-related medical cost savings and less utilization of healthcare resources relative to chemotherapy.     

Seeking for Solutions within a Project Setting

There has been increasing attention focused on the importance of ‘solution selling’ in the often very close relationships that characterize business-to-business marketing. While an extant predominantly product-centric view of solutions prevails in the literature, this has recently been juxtaposed with a more process-oriented view. We review such a process-oriented solution model briefly, and focus on the managerial challenge of how firms make this process-oriented approach work in practice. We argue that, in parallel to adopting a process-oriented approach, companies also have to focus their attention specifically on how to mobilize the different parties in order to amalgamate the perspectives and orientations between the interacting counterparts. We propose an interaction process model of how this ‘collective mind’ is achieved, using as an example a study of the United Kingdom’s Lean Aerospace Initiative (UK LAI), a large project with a specific solution in mind – improving the global competitiveness of the UK’s Aerospace industry. We use our model to show how the three main groups of actors (Government bodies, four Universities, and the aerospace companies themselves) interact in their pursuit of co-creating their collective solutions.     

Der Einfluss von Marketing Assets auf den Shareholder Value

Zusammenfassung  Marketer sehen sich zunehmend unter Erfolgs- und Rechtfertigungsdruck. Das Problem dabei: Der Erfolgsbeitrag von Marketing Assets zum Unternehmenswert ist in Forschung und Praxis weitgehend unbekannt. Der folgende Beitrag deckt die Einflüsse von Marketing Assets auf den Shareholder Value umfassend auf. Sie lernen eine Methode kennen, mit der die vielf?ltigen Einflüsse integriert gemessen und überprüft werden k?nnen. Prof. Dr. Mario Rese Lehrstuhl für Betriebswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Marketing, an der Ruhr-Universit?t Bochum und Mitglied der Faculty der European School of Management and Technology Berlin Dipl.-Kffr. Valerie Herter Wissenschaftliche Mitarbeiterin am gleichnamigen Lehrstuhl     

Exploring Impacts of Community-Based Legal Aid on Intrahousehold Gender Relations in Tanzania

Community-based legal aid (CBLA) has been promoted as a promising intervention to reach rural marginalized populations who face barriers to accessing formal legal services and is increasingly implemented with the specific goal of protecting women's rights. This study evaluates the impact of a twelve-month CBLA program in northwestern Tanzania on intrahousehold gender relations using a clustered-randomized control trial across 139 villages. Among 1,219 women, the study finds those in treatment villages are more likely to refer others to paralegals for a variety of domestic issues; however, there are no measureable impacts on aggregate knowledge of marital law, intrahousehold decision making, or reported experience of twelve-month intimate partner violence. These overall results are robust to a number of other sensitivity analyses, including accounting for spillovers, attrition bounds, and modeling choices. While these results indicate limited potential for intrahousehold and gender-progressive change, program duration and intensity likely affected measurable positive impacts.     

Temporary and permanent migrant selection: Theory and evidence of ability‐search cost dynamics

We integrate two workhorses of the labor literature, the Roy and search models, to illustrate the implications of migration duration—specifically, whether it is temporary or permanent—for patterns of selection. Consistent with our stylized model, we show that temporary migrants are intermediately selected on education, with weaker selection on cognitive ability. In contrast, permanent migration is associated with strong positive selection on both education and ability, as it involves finer employee–employer matching and offers greater returns to experience. Networks are also more valuable for permanent migration, where search costs are higher. Labor market frictions explain observed network–skill interactions.