Nonlinearity and structural stability in the Phillips curve: Evidence from Turkey

In this paper, we investigate possible nonlinearities in the inflation–output relationship in Turkey for the 1980–2008 period. We first estimate a linear bivariate model for the inflation rate and output gap, and test for linearity of the estimated model against nonlinear alternatives. Linearity test results suggest that the relationship between the inflation rate and output gap is highly nonlinear. We estimate a bivariate time-varying smooth transition regression model, and compute dynamic effects of one variable on the other by generalized impulse response functions. Computed impulse response functions indicate that inflation–output relationship in Turkey during the analyzed period was regime dependent and varied considerably across time.     

Do Low Wages Stimulate Investment? An analysis of the relationship between distribution and investment in Turkish private manufacturing industry

This study analyses the relative impact of profitability and demand on accumulation in Turkish private manufacturing industry on the basis of the theoretical framework outlined by Marglin & Bhaduri (1990). The main motivation behind this analysis is to shed light on the demand aspects of the slowdown in accumulation in the manufacturing industry despite the increase in profitability during the structural adjustment episode. For this purpose, the ratio of investment to value-added is estimated as a function of the profit share and an accelerator term, namely the growth rate of value-added, using panel data for the 26 industries of the private manufacturing sector. The results show that investment is not responsive to the profit share, whereas growth has a consistent positive impact. This result is significant in explaining the inability of pro-capital income policies to stimulate manufacturing investments throughout the export-promotion era. The export boom maintained by the use of the existing capacity rather than by new investments shows the limits of export demand to compensate for the fall in domestic consumption out of wages. The results make a strong case against the argument that profitability enhances accumulation. Evidence shows that it is not possible to enhance accumulation and long-term potential for growth simply based on promoting profitability, without paying attention to the demand aspects.     

Hidden Overhang of Domestic Debt and Its Role in the This-Time-Is-Different Syndrome: An Empirical Contingent Liabilities Model

The recent studies in public finance literature open an exciting research area on hidden overhang of domestic public debt and creative accounting. In this study, I identify hidden public debts in Turkey. I then develop a dynamical model that takes as given the stock of contingent liabilities generated by lending/borrowing relationships among public entities and looks for the debt (in)tolerance of government to liquidate it in finite periods. Last, I introduce a general empirical methodology to analyze the role of overborrowing in the this-time-is-different syndrome and test model outcome against data for hidden debts in Turkey's postliberalization period (1989-2010).     

The role of endowments,technology and size in international trade: new evidence from product-level data

Using product-level trade data, we empirically investigate the export patterns of more than 150 countries in their exports to the USA, Brazil, India, and Japan. We document strong evidence that exporters specialize according to their relative factor endowments, technology, and economic size. More developed, capital abundant countries are found to export products of higher unit values and a wider range of products to developed, emerging and developing markets. More developed, economically larger, and technologically advanced countries are also the major exporters of new products, spanning a wide range of product categories with high unit values. Our findings provide important insights into the macro phenomenon that a large proportion of the global trade takes place among developed economies, and that the latter are also major exporters to developing markets.     

The use of electronic media for advertising and selling: A consumer policy outline

The purpose of the article is to summarize the use of the electronic media for advertising and selling, to identify the present or potential problems of this use for consumers, and to outline national and international consumer policies on the use of the electronic media for advertising and selling.The main suggestions for consumer policy are that consumer organizations and authorities should: (a) set aside resources for the preparation of a code of standards for the use of data media for advertising and selling, (b) follow closely what we have identified as the most urgent consumer problem, namely the use of the visual media for new ways of advertising and selling, (c) carry out detailed studies of the necessity of adjusting legislation in light of the expected developments in the field of visual media, and (d) in view of the international range of both data media and visual media investigate the possibility of international co-operation concerning the detailed consumer policy elements proposed in this article.

---

Elektronische Medien in Werbung und Verkauf: ein verbraucherpolitischer Überblick

Zusammenfassung Der Beitrag schildert zunächst den Einsatz elektronischer Medien in der Werbung und im Verkauf, wie er sich in den USA und den westeuropäischen Ländern beobachten läßt. Er untersheidet dabei Daten-Medien und visuelle Medien. Anschließend versucht er, bestehende und potentiell auftretende Probleme dieses Medien-Einsatzes zu benennen, und geht dabei im Bereich der Werbung vor allem auf Fragen der Identifizierbarkeit, des Informationsgehaltes und der Strukturierung, im Bereich des Verkaufs auf Fragen der Information über Verkaufskonditionen, des Rücktrittsrechts und des Datenschutzes ein.Schließlich entwirft der Beitrag einen Vorschlag für nationale und internationale verbraucherpolitische Maßnahmen. Nach diesem Vorschlag sollten die Verbraucherorganisationen (a) Mittel für die Erarbeitung von Richtlinien für den Einsatz elektronischer Daten-Medien in Werbung und Verkauf bereitstellen, (b) dem wichtigen Problem des Einsatzes visueller Medien für neue Formen von Werbung und Verkauf auf der Spur bleiben, (c) genau prüfen, inwieweit die Gesetzgebung der zu erwartenden Entwicklung im Bereich der visuellen Medien angepaßt werden muß, und (d) angesichts der übernationalen Reichweite der behandelten Medien die Möglichkeit internationaler verbraucherpolitischer Zusammenarbeit fördern.

---

---

Folke Ölander is Professor and Preben Sepstrup Associate Professor at the Aarhus School of Business Administration and Economics, Ryhavevej 8, DK-8210 Aarhus V, Denmark.The project has been conducted with financial support from the Nordic Council of Ministers.     

Determining the Best Sales Time Period for Dried Figs: A Game Theory Application

Variations in producer prices over time cause constant fluctuations in farm incomes. In this study, the author uses a game theory approach to determine the economically optimal time to sell dried figs for the agricultural firms that produce them. Based on the price producers received in the period between August 2003 and July 2010, dried fig prices were converted into 2003 real price levels. According to a linear programming model based on these assumptions, it was determined that the best time for producers to sell dried figs, with the rate of 26.63%, was November and December.     

Network Imitation to Deal with Sociocultural Dilemmas in Acquisitions of Young,Innovative Firms

This article expands current acquisition literature to include sociocultural challenges on inter‐organizational levels following acquisitions of young, innovative firms. Socioculture here denotes network parties' shared values, belief systems, and practices. Three acquisitions illustrate their consequences. The young, innovative firms and their acquirers are part of different networks, have dissimilar motives for pursuing business, and work within different time frames. To potentially improve knowledge transfer and integration, the acquirer can learn from the innovative firm's network interactions; choose targets among its own network parties; organize its governance into a separate business unit; practice reverse value integration from the acquired party; and carefully promote practices that foster innovativeness. The article contributes to research on acquisitions of young, innovative firms through pointing to how values and practices are interlinked in networks, and how the imitation of the acquired party's network interaction may help to sustain its innovativeness and transfer knowledge between the acquirer and acquired party. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Nonlinear models,composite longer leading indicator and forecasts for UK real GDP

This paper examines the role of the Office for National Statistics Composite Longer Leading Indicator, in nonlinear business cycle models for growth rates of UK real gross domestic product (GDP). These models are of the smooth transition regression class, with the transition between “regimes” expressed as functions of lagged changes in the leading indicator. In general, evidence is found of business cycle regime asymmetries, with increases and decreases in the leading indicator implying distinct responses for the dependent variable. Single transition function appears to capture these asymmetries satisfactorily. Nonlinear models provide more accurate one-step ahead forecasts than corresponding linear leading indicator models.     

On the existence of expected multi-utility representations

We prove the following facts related to the expected multi-utility representation of an affine preorder: If the prize space is not compact and if the lottery set consists of all probabilities on the prize space, standard independence and continuity axioms do not guarantee the existence of a (continuous) representation. If the prize space is σ-compact and lotteries have compact support, a representation exists. When the preorder in question is bounded, this result extends to the set of lotteries that consists of all probabilities on the prize space. For the case of monetary lotteries, the boundedness assumption in this last result can be dropped, provided that the preference relation at hand is monotone and risk-averse.