From ultimatum to Nash bargaining: Theory and experimental evidence

We consider a sequential two-party bargaining game with uncertain information transmission. When the first mover states her demand she does only know the probability with which the second mover will be informed about it. The informed second mover can either accept or reject the offer and payoffs are determined as in the ultimatum game. Otherwise the uninformed second mover states his own demand and payoffs are determined as in the Nash demand game. In the experiment we vary the commonly known probability of information transmission. Our main finding is that first movers’ and uninformed second movers’ demands adjust to this probability as qualitatively predicted, that is, first movers’ (uninformed second movers’) demands are lower (higher) the lower the probability of information transmission. JEL Classification C72 · C78 · C92     

The effect of multiple listings on the bid–ask spread in option markets: The case of Montreal Exchange

In this article, we examine the effect of multiple listings of options on their bid–ask spread, by comparing options contracts listed only on the Montreal Exchange with those interlisted on that exchange and on a U.S. exchange as well. Using a statistical procedure adapted to panel data and two models for the determination of the bid–ask spread, we find that the bid–ask spreads of Montreal options interlisted in U.S. markets are narrower than those of non‐interlisted options. That advantage tends to disappear, however, with an increase in option price and to increase with its volatility, but is not affected by the volume of transactions in the option market. The analysis also shows that interlisting may result in time lags in the convergence of quotes between Montreal and the U.S. markets. Moreover, our evidence shows that with interlisting, volume shifts to the option market where trading in the underlying security is concentrated, irrespective of the location where the option was first introduced. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22:939–957, 2002     

Nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation of a probability density via mathematical programming

Based on sample values of a one-dimensional random variable a nonparametric maximum likelihood estimate for the unknown probability density is introduced as the solution of an optimization problem in an appropriate Hilbert space. This solution turns out to be a polynomial spline function, and a complete characterization is given using recent results on the differentiability of the optimal value of a parametrized family of optimization problems. An important feature of this estimate is that its support interval results in a quite natural way from the formulation of the problem and is not fixed in advance. The estimator is shown to have a certain consistency property for a special class of density functions. Numerical results will be given in a subsequent paper.     

The search for the latent information star

Abstract: R & D groups are knowledge-intensive organizations. As such, their principal assets are the men and women with scientific and technical training who constitute these groups. The raw materials that they work on and the products that they produce are ideas or information. The patents, papers, and hardware which emanate from these groups represent the physical manifestations of these ideas. One important concern for increasing productivity in R & D laboratories, therefore, is the facilitation of information flow into, within, and out of research group (Fischer, 1980). This paper considers an approach for improving the performance of an R & D group by increasing its information acquisition and processing capabilities and reports findings from a field study undertaken to examine this approach.     

Höchstzinspolitik,Inflation und wirtschaftliches Wachstum in Entwicklungsländern

Summary Interest Rate Ceilings, Inflation and Economic Growth in L.D.C.s. — Referring to the widespread prevalence of very low (frequently negative) real interest rates in most of the L.D.C.s this article empirically investigates the rationale for pursuing financial liberalization policies. First, it could be shown that the level of financial development is a significant determinant of the rate of capital formation and that for countries with low and stable inflation rates the constraints from the domestic financial sector are less effective than for those where high and very unstable rates of inflation are dominating. Secondly, in a cross-country analysis empirical support for McKinnon's “complementarity hypothesis” is provided, identifying the real rate of interest as positively related to private investment. Both findings are interpreted as recommendations for the freeing of interest rates and the reduction of inflation for stimulating growth in L.D.C.s.

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Résumé Les plafonds des taux d'intérêt, l'inflation et la croissance économique dans les PVD. — L'article se réfère à la prépondérance très répandue des taux réels très bas (souvent négatifs) dans la plupart des PVD et empiriquement analyse la raison de poursuivre une libération financière. Premièrement, l'auteur démontre que le niveau du développement financier est une déterminante significative du taux de la formation du capital et que dans les pays où les taux d'inflation sont bas et stables les restrictions en provenance du secteur local financier sont moins effectives que dans lesquels où les taux d'inflation hauts et très instables sont dominants. Deuxièmement, par une analyse transversale des pays l'auteur gagne un support empirique en faveur de la ?hypothèse de complémentarité? de McKinnon, c'est-à-dire qu'il y a une relation positive entre le taux réel d'intérêt et l'investissement privé. Les deux résultats sont interprétés comme recommandations du déblocage des taux d'intérêt et de la réduction d'inflation pour stimuler la croissance dans les PVD.

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Resumen Limites superiores para tasas de interés, inflación y crecimiento en pafses en desarrollo. — Refiriéndose a la amplia prevalencia de tasas de interés real muy bajas (frecuente negativas) en la mayoría de los países en desarrollo, este articulo investiga empíricamente la racionalidad de seguir politicas de liberalizaci 'on financiera. Primero, se puedo mostrar que el nivel de desarrollo financiero es una determinante significativa de la tasa de formación de capital y que para países con tasas de inflación bajas y estables las restricciones del sector financiero doméstico son menos efectivas que para aquéllos donde dominan tasas de inflación altas y muy inestables. Segundo, en un análisis de corte transversal de países se proporciona apoyo empírico a la ?hipótesis complementaria? de McKinnon, indentificando una relación positiva entre la tasa de interés real y la inversión privada. Ambos resultados se interpretan como recomendaciones para liberar las tasas de interés y reducir la inflación para estimular el crecimiento en países en desarrollo.

     

Neue Konzepte für das Controlling der Zukunft

Die Rahmenbedingungen des Controlling haben sich tiefgreifend gewandelt, ohne dass dies vom traditionellen Controlling ausreichend nachvollzogen worden w?re.     

Bauteilbezogene Kostenanalysen für Preisverhandlungen in der Automobilindustrie

Automobilhersteller fordern für Preisverhandlungen von Zulieferern die Vorlage von Kostenanalysen für deren Teileumf?nge. Die Kostenanalyse ist eine Aufschlüsselung des Teilepreises in Kostenarten nach vorgegebenem Kalkulationsschema.