Parimutuel contests with strategic risk-sensitive bettors

Existing models in the parimutuel betting literature typically explain betting data by either assuming a single, representative bettor with certain risk preferences or by assuming that a number of risk neutral bettors compete strategically within a game theoretic framework. We construct a theoretical framework of parimutuel markets in which we model both strategic interaction and individual bettor risk preferences, distinguishing between sophisticated insiders and recreational outsiders. We solve this model analytically for the optimal insider betting amount in a static symmetric Nash equilibrium. A new data set of 126 million individual horse race bets in New Zealand from 2006 to 2014 allows us to calibrate the model. We find that insiders (those betting $100 or more) outperform outsiders by 7.5% in terms of realized returns. The best fit of the model to the data is obtained when insiders are assumed to be risk neutral and to have an information advantage of 0.08 in probability terms. This finding provides empirical support for the common assumption of risk neutrality in strategic interaction models of parimutuel betting.     

Reducing ambiguity in lotteries: evidence from a field experiment

Ambiguity about the chances of winning represents a key aspect in lotteries. By means of a controlled field experiment, we exogenously vary the degree of ambiguity about the winning chances of lotteries organized to incentivize the contribution for a public good. In one treatment, people have been simply informed about the maximum number of potential participants (i.e. the number of lottery tickets released). In a second treatment, this information has been omitted as in all traditional lotteries. Our general finding shows that simply reducing the degree of ambiguity of the lottery leads to a sizable and significant increase (67%) in the participation rate. This result is robust to alternative prize configurations.     

Innovation,Market Structure and the Structure of the Economy: a micro-to-macro model

This paper presents a micro-to-macro model which connects an input–output model with price-dependent input coefficients and basic elements of industrial economics. This enables the determination of the most important variables on the micro, meso and macro levels, and, in particular, the determination of market structure and economic structure. On the basis of the model, we discuss the various intra-industry and interindustry impacts of process innovation. The results show the importance of considering heterogeneity of firms and sectors.     

The bright and dark side of staging: Investment performance and the varying motivations of private equity firms

Previous papers that examined investment decisions by private equity funds are divided on whether staging has a positive or negative effect on returns. We believe these opposing views can be reconciled by studying when staging is used during the life of the investment relationship: We find that staging has a positive effect on investment returns in the beginning of the investment relationship, consistent with the notion that staging helps mitigate information asymmetry. However, staging appears to be negatively associated with returns when used prior to the exit decision. Our unique dataset allows us to measure these intertemporal effects precisely.     

Determinants of heterogeneity in European credit ratings

In this study, we empirically analyze the determinants of heterogeneity in rating assessments across different segments of the European loan market. We conduct a benchmarking analysis using rating information on European corporate obligors from nine major Austrian banks that have a large share of foreign lending, particularly in the Central and Eastern European region. We provide evidence that, generally, overall heterogeneity among rating outcomes for foreign markets is higher than for domestic markets. Furthermore, we show that heterogeneity increases in transition economies and those markets where Austrian bank involvement is relatively low. Our evidence supports the hypothesis that heterogeneity in the assessment of credit risk is determined not only by the objective quality of information, which is deemed to be lower in transition economies, but also by the subjective access to information about obligors measured by the level of domestic bank involvement in the respective foreign market. Furthermore, we quantify potential effects on regulatory capital requirements.     

Innovation and growth through local and global interaction

This paper investigates the research and development activity of heterogeneous and rationally bounded firms. The latter conduct this activity through in-house research and by collecting information originating in other firms’ spillovers. Thus, research and development activity owes both to independent searching and to interaction diffusing information. We study the conditions under which this idiosyncratic effort yields effects that have either local, system-wise negligible impacts or cumulate to generate significant aggregate ones. In the latter case, global effects feed back upon the incentive to innovate and therefore on the strength of local interaction as well as on autonomous research efforts. It is these dynamic forces that we model. We compare cases in which significant aggregate effects do emerge with cases in which they do not and study their outcome on innovation-directed investment and on long-term growth.     

Measures of risk associated to regulations compliance: a laboratory experiment on the use of common-pool resources

The present research examined the influence of different risk perspectives by the use of four different target persons (who could be affected: abstract person, self, specific person, and specific others) and of four different questionnaire answer formats (rating, open percentage, open, and closed frequency) on risk assessments. It was assumed that subjects use two different systems in terms of probabilistic reasoning: a distributional approach for abstract targets leading to higher risk estimates and a singular approach for specific targets leading to lower risk assessments. According to unrealistic optimism (UO) research (showing higher risk assessments for an abstract person than for self), the assumption was that risk assessments for a specific (named) target lead to lower risk assessments compared to an abstract target. Further, common quantitative answer formats for assessing risk were compared to explore differences in risk estimates. The hypotheses were tested using data of a sample of 512 students from a Bavarian university. The frequently confirmed finding of UO could be replicated with both rating scale and open frequency scale, which appeared to be more sensitive compared to the other used scales. However, UO disappeared when the comparison target was specific. Further, risk assessments for an abstract target were highest within every answer format and lowest for specific targets. Furthermore, results revealed that the type of answer format has a moderating effect on the extent of the influence of risk perspective on risk assessments. Overall, this study gives evidence that both the chosen scale and the risk perspective strongly influence risk assessments. Results aim to contribute to the research fields of quantitative assessment of perceived risk. They suggest that probabilistic reasoning in regard to risk not only underlies motivational or cognitive ego-defensive mechanisms but is rather presumably caused by the use of different systems of inferential strategies.     

Manual dishwashing process – a pre‐assigned behaviour?

Global studies have observed many techniques of manual dishwashing causing different levels of performance and using quite different amounts of water, energy, time and detergent. It is not known, however, if these techniques are pre‐assigned to a person and persist when dishes are washed under different conditions, or are adapted to the specific type of dish‐cleaning process. Here we explored this question in a study with 40 test subjects selected equally from Germany and East European countries by asking them to wash two place settings of dishes with different amounts of soil three times. The results showed that the test subjects did not adapt their washing‐up behaviour to the amount of soil. In general, no significant differences were found in the water, energy and detergent consumption for all test subjects. Only the time used by the German test subjects to wash the fully soiled dishes was significantly longer compared with the dishes with only a quarter the quantity of soil, and no significant difference was observed for all other parts. The only significant difference found between the level of soiling of the dishes was the cleaning result achieved: The less soiled the dishes were, the better the final cleaning result was, and this related to all test subjects. This lends support to the proposition that the consumers did not adapt their washing‐up behaviour to the specific circumstances of the dishwashing job to be done but retained some pre‐assigned behaviour.     

Mining landscape: A cultural tourist opportunity or an environmental problem?: The study case of the Cartagena-La Unión Mining District (SE Spain)

Abandoned industrial sites have traditionally constituted an important source of environmental problems. However, such sites are considered in many cases a historic heritage, and in this way, have been protected with different legal dispositions. Mining activities can be considered a special type of industrial site in that they encompass not only architectural but also landscape elements related to geology or topography. The necessity of developing new economic opportunities in these places, whose economy has been traditionally based on the “mining monoculture”, has resulted in the creation of a cultural revival in some mining sites. Nevertheless, these new economic potentials must be compatible with the obligation to maintain a low environmental risk in sites where the heavy metal concentrations are very high. The Cartagena-La Unión Mining District in Southern Spain is an example of such a case. This paper reviews the environmental situation in that area and the initiatives for establishing a cultural tourism. The goal of this paper is to incite the public debate about the balance between environmental risks, cultural safeguarding and economic development.     

Sooner or Later? – Paradoxical Investment Effects of Capital Gains Taxation under Simultaneous Investment and Abandonment Flexibility

This paper analyzes the impact of capital gains taxation on investment timing decisions for risky investment projects with entry and exit flexibility under differential tax rates for ordinary income and capital gains. We investigate whether capital gains taxation influences immediate and delayed investments asymmetrically, given the optimal abandonment decision. If capital gains taxation induces a lock-in effect, this effect is anticipated in the investment timing decision. In contrast to prior research, our numerical simulations show that this lock-in effect of capital gains taxation can induce normal as well as paradoxical effects on investment timing under simultaneous entry and exit flexibility. A paradoxical timing effect, i.e., investment accelerated by capital gains taxation, especially emerges for high liquidation proceeds or, more conservative tax accounting, low interest rates, and low volatilities. In these cases, capital gains taxation reduces the value of the option to invest and hereby increases the propensity to invest immediately. As a second paradoxical tax effect, capital gains taxation may favor delayed real investment over financial investment. Facing these results, tax legislators should not use capital gains taxation as a short-term tax policy instrument to influence investors' timing decisions.