Heuristics,learning and the business angel investment decision-making process

ABSTRACT

This paper extends the literature on the investment decision-making of business angels.

Using insights from the emerging body of research on entrepreneurial learning processes, particularly the use of heuristics and the nature of learning from meagre experience, we explore whether angels learn from experience, how they learn and what they learn. These issues are addressed using verbal protocol analysis, a methodology for examining decision-making in real time, with three groups of business angels with differing levels of investment experience, and with follow-up debriefing interviews with these angels. This reveals some differences in the speed of decision making and the emphasis given to various investment criteria. There is some evidence for the use of heuristics in the decision making process, and for the critical role played by vicarious learning from the experience of others. Learning in the individual angel decision making process is a social as well as an individual phenomenon.     

Panel unit root tests in the presence of a multifactor error structure

This paper extends the cross-sectionally augmented panel unit root test (CIPS$CIPS$) proposed by Pesaran (2007) to the case of a multifactor error structure, and proposes a new panel unit root test based on a simple average of cross-sectionally augmented Sargan–Bhargava statistics (CSB$CSB$). The basic idea is to exploit information regarding the m$m$ unobserved factors that are shared by k$k$ observed time series in addition to the series under consideration. Initially, we develop the tests assuming that m⁰$m^0$, the true number of factors, is known and show that the limit distribution of the tests does not depend on any nuisance parameters, so long as k≥m⁰−1$k\ge m^0-1$. Small sample properties of the tests are investigated by Monte Carlo experiments and are shown to be satisfactory. Particularly, the proposed CIPS$CIPS$ and CSB$CSB$ tests have the correct size for all   combinations of the cross section (N$N$) and time series (T$T$) dimensions considered. The power of both tests rises with N$N$ and T$T$, although the CSB$CSB$ test performs better than the CIPS$CIPS$ test for smaller sample sizes. The various testing procedures are illustrated with empirical applications to real interest rates and real equity prices across countries.     

The Effect of Graduated Response Anti‐Piracy Laws on Music Sales: Evidence from an Event Study in France

Despite the problem that filesharing poses to the creative industries, there is little research on the effectiveness of governmental anti‐piracy policies. This study analyzes how the HADOPI ² graduated response law in France affected digital music sales. Using a panel of sales data from the four major labels, we applied a difference‐in‐difference approach, comparing sales trends in France to a control group of European countries. We find that increased consumer awareness of HADOPI caused French iTunes music sales to increase by 22‐25%. The observed sales increase is larger in high piracy genres than low piracy ones, strengthening the causal interpretation of our results.     

Do XBRL filings enhance informational efficiency? Early evidence from post-earnings announcement drift

In 2009, the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) mandated public firms to file their financial statements using eXtensible Business Reporting Language (XBRL). The SEC's main motive behind this mandate is that XBRL filings would enhance the informational efficiency in the stock markets by making financial data easier to use and analyze for a broad range of investors. Using a sample from the first wave of mandated XBRL filers, we find a decline in post earnings announcement drift for the good news portfolio in the post-XBRL adoption period. Instead of a drift associated with underreaction, we find that markets overreact to negative earnings surprises for the bad news portfolio during our observation period, which coincides with the financial crisis. We detect limited evidence that XBRL adoption mitigates overreaction, which is another form of market inefficiency. We also find limited evidence that XBRL particularly benefits small investors.     

Maybe It’s Right,Maybe It’s Wrong: Structural and Social Determinants of Deception in Negotiation

Context shapes negotiators’ actions, including their willingness to act unethically. Focusing on negotiators use of deception, we used a simulated two-party negotiation to test how three contextual variables—regulatory focus, power, and trustworthiness—interacted to shift negotiators’ ethical thresholds. We demonstrated that these three variables interact to either inhibit or activate deception, providing support for an interactionist model of ethical decision-making. Three patterns emerged from our analyses. First, low power inhibited and high power activated deception. Second, promotion-focused negotiators favored sins of omission, whereas prevention-focused negotiators favored sins of commission. Third, low cognition-based trust influenced deception when negotiators experience fit between power and regulatory focus, whereas affect-based trust influenced deception when negotiators experience misfit between these structural context variables. We conclude that regulatory focus primes different moral templates: promotion-focused negotiators’ decision to deceive is determined by moral pragmatism, whereas prevention-focused negotiators’ decision to deceive is determined by opportunism. Because each combination of power and regulatory focus was tied to a specific subcomponent of trust, we further conclude that negotiators engage in motivated information search to determine whether they should deceive their opponents.     

US farm support under a Biden administration: Plus ça change,plus c'est la même chose?

During the Trump administration, there has been an unprecedented increase in the level of domestic support provided to US agricultural producers. Direct farm supports, including price and income support payments, federal crop insurance, and supplemental assistance to compensate losses due to the trade war with China and the pandemic, have accounted for more than one‐third of net farm income. Those payments have threatened to push the United States over its World Trade Organization (WTO) domestic support obligations and increased its vulnerability to potential dispute settlement challenges in the WTO. The incoming Biden administration will likely bring a new focus to repurpose farm subsidies to provide environmental benefits, such as reduced greenhouse gas emissions, but to achieve those reforms they will need to convince a US Congress that has historically been prone to maintaining the status quo.     

The Social Network?: Nonprofit Constituent Engagement Through Social Media

Social media has become an important part of public relations for nonprofit organizations. Social media has the potential to engage stakeholders and constituents of nonprofit organizations. However, little scholarly attention has been focused on how users react to social media posts by nonprofit organizations. To enhance understanding of how organizational social media activity affects users’ engagement, this study examines Facebook and Twitter utilization and user response of nonprofit advocacy groups. The analysis reveals that users respond differently to stimuli across platforms.     

Issue Information

Much research studies US inflation history with a trend‐cycle model with unobserved components, where the trend may be viewed as the Fed's evolving inflation target or long‐horizon expected inflation. We provide a novel way to measure the slowly evolving trend and the cycle (or inflation gap), by combining inflation predictions from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) with realized inflation. The SPF forecasts may be treated either as rational expectations (RE) or updating according to a sticky information (SI) law of motion. We estimate RE and SI state‐space models with stochastic volatility on samples of consumer price index and gross national product/gross domestic product deflator inflation and the associated SPF inflation predictions using a particle Metropolis–Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler. The trend converges to 2% and its volatility declines over time—two tendencies largely complete by the late 1990s.     

Aesthetic logics,terroir and the lamination of grower champagne

ABSTRACT

This paper examines how aesthetic institutional logics and objects shape markets. We focus on the champagne field, for which dominant category conventions include luxury, celebration and protected regional origin (exemplified by grande marque champagne). Our attention, however, is on more recent, alternative conventions, such as site-specific terroir and passionate artisanality (exemplified by “grower champagne”). In analyzing how trade associations, small-scale producers and wine writers represent champagne, we offer an approach that is sensitive to both top-down and bottom-up dynamics of logics. Drawing on the concept of lamination to provide a processual bridge between category conventions and institutional objects (and thus logics), we find that representations from the three actor groups build up – layering and (at least partially) overlapping – such that both dominant and alternative frames come to shape the champagne field. We suggest how divergent representational practices may be directed at and by a common aesthetic institutional object.